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Author Topic: was 1976 the last election where  (Read 2520 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: March 22, 2011, 11:34:45 am »
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a lot of counties and states that I would never assume would vote for a democratic, did and a lot of counties and states that I would never assume would vote for a republican, also did.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2011, 12:08:02 pm »
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It was also the last one where Democrats won the Deep South and where Republicans won the Northeast.
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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2011, 12:30:49 pm »
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The Deep South wasn't too unexpected; Carter's southern roots were a major selling point.
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2011, 12:31:24 pm »
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It was also the last one where Democrats won the Deep South and where Republicans won the Northeast.

The GOP did not win the NE. They won a few states there, but as a whole, did badly in the region.
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2011, 01:06:48 pm »
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It was also the last one where Democrats won the Deep South and where Republicans won the Northeast.

Carter carried the Northeast 86-36.



He also carried the North 132-104.



And he carried the Union 172-165.

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« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2011, 10:53:09 am »
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As I've said before, its amazing to compare how many states were actually competative back then before the hard divide into red, blue and purple states. Damn few states in 76 were a rout for either candidate.

A very sad trend. Sad
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Antonio V
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« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2011, 10:56:53 am »
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As I've said before, its amazing to compare how many states were actually competative back then before the hard divide into red, blue and purple states. Damn few states in 76 were a rout for either candidate.

A very sad trend. Sad

True. Political polarization in current elections is quite disgusting.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2011, 11:52:13 am »
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Both candidates were honest? Yes.
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GPORTER
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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2011, 11:58:10 am »
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Both candidates were honest? Yes.
Honestly I believe it was the gaffe by Ford in the second debate...if there had been no gaffe then I believe that Ford would have been president...
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the birth of modern america & onward election Former Vice President Blanche Bruce defeats incumbent President Grover Cleveland in 1904. In an age of unpredictable election outcomes Bruce finds himself reelected in 1908 against an opponent whose name escapes me at the moment. Blanche Bruce served as Vice President under Frederick Douglas whom Cleveland defeated in 1900. His Vice President runs to replace Bruce in 1912.
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« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2011, 05:27:34 pm »
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Both candidates were honest? Yes.
Honestly I believe it was the gaffe by Ford in the second debate...if there had been no gaffe then I believe that Ford would have been president...
...And there'd be no Conservative revolution, except maybe in the late eighties (1988) or the nineties (1992). But it wouldn't be the one we know today. Heck, the Conservative President in question might even have the bragging point of a surplus then...
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« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2011, 05:44:38 pm »
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Is there more polarization?

States where one party got 55% or more of the 2 party vote-

1976-



8 Democratic States, representing 85 EVs with D.C.
6 Republican states,  representing 25 EVs.
36  Swing States, representing 428 EVs.

2004-



8 Democratic States, representing 146 EVs with D.C.
20 Republican states,  representing 183 EVs.
22  Swing States, representing 209 EVs.

Is that much more polarized?
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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2011, 06:51:45 pm »
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It's hard to find patterns to the 1976 county map outside the South. It seems more of urban and rural voting Democratic and suburbs voting Republican, than any ideological reason.
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« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2011, 03:52:23 am »
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Is that much more polarized?

Yes.

Here's another way to see it. Here are the States that differ from the national PV margin by more than 10 points for either party.


1976 :



Carter : 78
Ford : 39
Competitive : 421


2008 :



McCain : 160
Obama : 157
Competitive : 221
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2011, 07:27:03 am »
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Both candidates were honest? Yes.
Honestly I believe it was the gaffe by Ford in the second debate...if there had been no gaffe then I believe that Ford would have been president...
...And there'd be no Conservative revolution, except maybe in the late eighties (1988) or the nineties (1992). But it wouldn't be the one we know today. Heck, the Conservative President in question might even have the bragging point of a surplus then...

Yes, because slashing upper income tax rates as opposed to raising them has shown to be EVER so effective in reducing the deficit. Roll Eyes
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2011, 10:25:13 pm »
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Yes, there was greater variance in state-by-state results in 2004 than 1976, but I think that says a lot more about 1976 than it does about 2004. The default in US politics has been polarisation, 1976 is one of the outliers. Just take a look at pretty much every election from 1856 to 1972 - 1976 is a product of a slow regional realignment, where states are "crossing over" and hence will be competitive for a time.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #15 on: April 03, 2011, 01:21:50 pm »
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Yes, there was greater variance in state-by-state results in 2004 than 1976, but I think that says a lot more about 1976 than it does about 2004. The default in US politics has been polarisation, 1976 is one of the outliers. Just take a look at pretty much every election from 1856 to 1972 - 1976 is a product of a slow regional realignment, where states are "crossing over" and hence will be competitive for a time.

Are you sure ? Here is 1960 :



Nixon : 68
Kennedy : 61
Competitive : 408
« Last Edit: April 03, 2011, 01:24:26 pm by Lionel Jospin Revivalist »Logged

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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Nichlemn
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« Reply #16 on: April 04, 2011, 07:06:45 am »
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Yes, there was greater variance in state-by-state results in 2004 than 1976, but I think that says a lot more about 1976 than it does about 2004. The default in US politics has been polarisation, 1976 is one of the outliers. Just take a look at pretty much every election from 1856 to 1972 - 1976 is a product of a slow regional realignment, where states are "crossing over" and hence will be competitive for a time.

Are you sure ? Here is 1960 :



Nixon : 68
Kennedy : 61
Competitive : 408

It's in the same time period, in a period of realignment. (The South began to realign before the Civil Rights Act).
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Napoleon
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« Reply #17 on: April 04, 2011, 08:52:54 am »
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It's funny that 1960 is brought up as an example because it, along with 1976, are the two post-World War II elections where, IMO, the candidates were the most similar to each other. Both also happened to be decided by fairly close margins. The closest we have to that now would be the 2000 election, a near 50-50 split with similar dynamics to both 1960 and 1976.



Gore: 52
Bush: 65
Competitive: 421

So using Antonio V's formula of counting states that differ from the national PV margin by more than 10 points for either party, the most recent election with a similar result to 1960 was 2000, with more competitive electoral votes. The difference between the two candidates in PV was also almost exactly the same, as well as having a two-term VP heading the ticket for each incumbent party losing despite the popularity of the incumbent President. Some states are just "swingier" than others are, as 2008 shows.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #18 on: April 05, 2011, 04:06:51 am »
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Napoleon, your map is not made in the way mine was. It's not the variation from the candidate's score that you must count, but the variation from his margin of victory. My criterion is twice more restrictive than yours.

And here is the map we get :



Gore : 168
Bush : 146
Competitive : 224

Basically as polarized as 2008.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Antonio V
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« Reply #19 on: April 05, 2011, 04:09:44 am »
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It's in the same time period, in a period of realignment. (The South began to realign before the Civil Rights Act).

So 1976 was not an outlier : it was part of a long period during which politics were less polarized. The reason of the lack of polarization during this period was not my point.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Napoleon
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« Reply #20 on: April 05, 2011, 04:37:31 am »
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Antonio, the popular vote margin was less than one percentage point. It was essentially a tie.
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When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
Antonio V
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« Reply #21 on: April 05, 2011, 05:59:14 am »
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Antonio, the popular vote margin was less than one percentage point. It was essentially a tie.

So ? What does it change ? Huh
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Napoleon
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« Reply #22 on: April 05, 2011, 06:08:35 am »
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Antonio, the popular vote margin was less than one percentage point. It was essentially a tie.

So ? What does it change ? Huh

58% in a given state would be R+10 or D+10.
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When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
Antonio V
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« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2011, 06:11:06 am »
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Antonio, the popular vote margin was less than one percentage point. It was essentially a tie.

So ? What does it change ? Huh

58% in a given state would be R+10 or D+10.

No. Margins, not % votes. 53% in a given State would be R+10 or D+10 (if the opponent gets 43%).

Don't reason in terms of percentage, but in terms of margin.
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Napoleon
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« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2011, 06:15:40 am »
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Your wording is/ was very confusing.  I took todiffer from the margin by ten as to add or subtract ten. You're wanting the margin itself to be within ten, which would be a difference OF ten or less.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2011, 06:21:24 am by Napoleon »Logged

When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
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