Portuguese General Election

[RodPresident]

Portugal uses D'Hondt method.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Viana do Castelo

2009: PS 3, PSD/PPD 2, CDS/PP 1

The most northern district of Portugal. Like all parts in the North it is more conservative than the average, but the PS is relative strong there. I'm sure that the PSD will gain a seat, but the CDS-seat isn't save. Only a few loses of the CDS and PS can hold their mandate.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (-1), PSD 3 (+1). CDS-PP 1 (nc)


Vila Real

2009: PS 2, PSD/PPD 3

A rural district with a Catholic Redneck Population. It is the home-district of Passos Coelho, the leader of the PSD. Normally I see no changes there, but maybe it give a Passos Coelho hype ther and the will win 4 seats.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (nc), PSD 3 (nc)


Viseu

2009: PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1

Again a Conservative, Catholic district. In the south we say about them, they can only pray and eat potatoes, nothing else I don't think the PS can have this good result from the last election again.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 3 (-1), PSD 5 (+1). CDS-PP 1 (nc)


Europe

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 1

For the Portuguese, living in other European Countries, it gives 2 mandates. Every election since 1974 the PS and PSD win one. Only Guterres win one time both for the PS. In the last election it was very close with the PSD seat, but I don't see this seat this time in danger.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 1 (nc)


Rest of the World

2009: PSD/PPD 2

For all Portugese People in the rest of the World we have 2 mandates too. The Portuguese from South Africa, Brasil and the US are very antisocialistic and vote every time for the PSD. Only one time the PS won the second seat.

My prediction for 2011:
PSD 2 (nc)

[Hans-im-Glück]

In my prediction we have no winner.

PS   90
PSD  95
CDS-PP  18
B.E.  9
PCP-PEV  18

PSD + CDS 113 (116 is the majority)

We will see how good is my prediction

[JonBidinger]

If your prediction (or something substantially similar) pan out, what are the odds of a PS minority government again, tolerated by the parties to the left?

[RodPresident]

In Madeira, CDS-PP got a seat with 11.12% of votes. I think that if PTP gets 15% or more, Coelho can get a seat with 12% and if he goes with more than 25%, he can bring another PTP person to parliament. In National Assembly, if PSD gets power, he can become a national leadership.

[Hans-im-Glück]

If your prediction (or something substantially similar) pan out, what are the odds of a PS minority government again, tolerated by the parties to the left?

If the PSD is in the strongest Party, then they will build a minority governement. I don't see that the PCP or the B.E. want to tolerate th PS. Maybe without Sócrates, but this will not happen.

In Madeira, CDS-PP got a seat with 11.12% of votes. I think that if PTP gets 15% or more, Coelho can get a seat with 12% and if he goes with more than 25%, he can bring another PTP person to parliament. In National Assembly, if PSD gets power, he can become a national leadership.

You are right, but I don't trust the Madeirians. In the end they every time follow the PSD and their Maximo Lider Jardim. But who knows, maybe they learn something

[Hans-im-Glück]

In the last days we have some new polls. They are not very different to the last polls, but the lead of the PSD is a little bit higher (2%-3%). Maybe this would be enough for for a PSD/CDS majority.

We will see it on sunday.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today are the elections. In the evening, local time, you can see here the official results.
http://www.legislativas2011.mj.pt/index.html

The election special broadcast of the public broadcaster RTP ​​you can watch here:
RTP 1 or RTPN

I think the PSD and the CDS will do a little bit better than in my prediction and it will be enough for an absolute majority, but only a small one.

[Californian Tony]

At which hour exactly will we have the first results ?

[Hans-im-Glück]

At which hour exactly will we have the first results ?

At 20:00 local time

[Californian Tony]

At which hour exactly will we have the first results ?

At 20:00 local time

Ok, thank you. That means 21h there.

[Hans-im-Glück]

It seems the turnout is a little bit lower than 2009

16:00 have 41.98% voted (2009 at the same time 43.30%)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Here an other live-stream if you want to watch the Portuguese Election:
SICN

[Hans-im-Glück]

Polling stations in mainland Portugal are now closed. But in the Azores, they are still open for an hour and the results may not be published. In 58 minutes we know more.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Projection Universidade Catolica (RTP)

PS  26-30%
PSD  37-42%
CDS  11-14%
PCP  7-9%
B.E.  5-7%

Mandates:

PS  67-77
PSD  104-114
CDS  22-28
PCP  14-18
B.E.  8-11

[Hans-im-Glück]

Eurosondagem/SIC have nearly the same result

[Hashemite]

57% reporting

PSD 42.6
PS 29.2
CDS-PP 10.6
PCP-PEV 6
BE 3.8

WoW.

[Hans-im-Glück]

57% reporting

PSD 42.6
PS 29.2
CDS-PP 10.6
PCP-PEV 6
BE 3.8

WoW.

There are missing the big cities, but it is a bigger victory of the PSD than expected.

The sheeps voted for the butcher

[You kip if you want to...]

Another center-left government falls...

[Hans-im-Glück]

The poll of the Universidade Catolica says that the PAN (Party for Animals and Nature) wins a seat in Lisbon

[big bad fab]

Another center-left government falls...

Don't worry, France will again shift contrary to European trend in 2012 ()

[RodPresident]

It looks that PCTP can get a set in Lisbon too, but I doubt this. In Madeira, José Manuel Coelho showing is going to be another epic fail.

[Hans-im-Glück]

WOW, i need a Vodka

My hometown in Portugal (Silves) voted for the right

PPD/PSD 29,03%  1.528 votos
PS 21,11%  1.111 votos
PCP-PEV 16,70%  879 votos
CDS-PP 11,25%  592 votos
B.E. 9,39%  494 votos
PCTP/MRPP 2,11%  111 votos  


2009:

PS 27,38% 1.473 votos
PPD/PSD 20,41% 1.098 votos
B.E. 18,72% 1.007 votos
PCP-PEV 16,39% 882 votos
CDS-PP 8,27% 445 votos
PCTP/MRPP 1,75% 94 votos
 

[Californian Tony]

Ouch.... That's that bad ?

[big bad fab]

The margin seems to be huge but can't urban areas still prevent the right from getting an absolute majority ?