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Author Topic: Portuguese General Election  (Read 8164 times)
Sibboleth
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« on: March 23, 2011, 04:53:16 pm »
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The government has resigned after its budget was rejected. New election likely, so here's the thread.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2011, 05:02:45 pm »
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What are opinion polls at? The Socialist government getting ransacked, repeatedly ravaged and thrown in the mud without an afterthought by a band of plundering Mongolian warriors, I presume?
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You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2011, 05:15:13 pm »
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Another European left government set to fall flat on its face... Sad
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2011, 05:28:28 pm »
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This isn't a surprise for me. The Socialists have no majority in the Parliament and the opposition don't want to vote for the Budget Cuts. It would be the 4th Cuts in short time.

The biggest opposition Party, the conservative Social Democrats (PSD) are leading in the polls. They have no other recipe like Portugal could come out of the crisis, but they say now no to the cuts and after the election they make the same or worse.

The last poll I saw was from end of February:

PSD  47.8%
PS  29.1%
PCP  6.1%
B.E.  5.9%
CDS  4.2%
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2011, 05:46:25 pm »
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Hmmm, about what 1991 looked like, only with the PS being the incumbent this time. While this is a serious kicking, it's not an end of the party style result like 1985 (BTW the 1987 no confidence vote must really have been a 'turkeys voting for an early christmas'-style event, just reading the Wikipedia article is a major wtf about what the PRD and the CDS thought they were doing).  The difference seems to be the PSD doing ever so slightly worse than back then. Or else it's like 2005 in reverse. Anyway, if my uninformed wikipedia-based guesstimate isn't too far off that'd make 120-130 PSD to 65-80 PS, or am I wrong?

Another unrelated remark about this is that while leftwing (government) parties have been taking a kicking in Europe troughout the crisis, we haven't actually seen any complete meltdowns, now have we? Labour got teh best result for a defeated government since, what, 1974? The SPD got kicked out of government vehemently, but the CDU also is hurting now. The Dutch PvdA in fact got punished for its role in government by coming in a close second in an important election. And the PS seems to be on course for a heavy, yet within the range of the normal, defeat. This is not to mention those parties who were lucky enough to profit from the depression's impact on thei national government (Irish Labour, the French PS, the Wallonia PS to some degree) Seems more like people flocking around what they perceive to be stability, than a Great Depression GOP-style reallignment against us. Anyone else with thoughts on this?
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2011, 05:56:29 pm »
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IMHO portuguese people will think about the situation again... and PS will lose, but not by 18 points... socrates wasn't only a good and honest prime minister, but also clever.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2011, 06:03:34 pm »
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Another unrelated remark about this is that while leftwing (government) parties have been taking a kicking in Europe troughout the crisis, we haven't actually seen any complete meltdowns, now have we? Labour got teh best result for a defeated government since, what, 1974?

No; the Callaghan government did a bit better (269/635, as opposed to 258/650). There's a tendency to forget that the 1979 election was no landslide; what kept Labour out of power for the next eighteen years wasn't the unpopularity of the Wilson/Callaghan government but the decision (taken independently by multiple factions) to construct the bestest circular firing squad eVar. But, yeah. Certainly not a meltdown and quite a bit better than most of us were dreading.

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Anyone else with thoughts on this?

Far too many for now.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2011, 07:55:14 pm »
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Labour got a shocking result; it just wasn't reflected in their number of seats.

Will we be seeing a Greek-style exodus of the Socialist vote to further-left parties?
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2011, 08:12:14 pm »
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The biggest opposition Party, the conservative Social Democrats (PSD) are leading in the polls. They have no other recipe like Portugal could come out of the crisis, but they say now no to the cuts and after the election they make the same or worse.

The last poll I saw was from end of February:

PSD  47.8%
PS  29.1%
PCP  6.1%
B.E.  5.9%
CDS  4.2%

Just seen this. Jesus, the Social Democrats are basically mopping up the votes from everywhere! I suppose if they're pretending to oppose the cuts it's only logical they'd neutralise the Left.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2011, 08:58:05 pm »
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Labour got a shocking result; it just wasn't reflected in their number of seats.

Well there's never a direct link between votes cast and seats won in Britain. But that's all that can be sanely compared with over more than a moderate length of time because one consequence of the electoral system is that the number of parties fighting large numbers of constituencies (and quite how large any large number in question actually is) changes irritatingly frequently. Not that anyone would exactly dispute that it was a bad result though.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Antonio V
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2011, 02:30:44 am »
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Great, just what the Portuguese needed...
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



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« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2011, 02:38:40 am »
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Great, just what the Portuguese needed...

I'd even say "just what the Euro-zone needed..."
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2011, 03:56:09 am »
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Great, just what the Portuguese needed...

I'd even say "just what the Euro-zone needed..."

^^^^^^

Until the election there will be in Portugal now no more important decision.

It is to early to say what will be the result of the election. I think the PSD will win, but not with this 47% like in the last poll. The Portuguese People don't think they have a better plan. They will win because many socialists will stay at home and not go to election. Sócrates is a very good campaigner and now he can prove how good he really is.
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« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2011, 05:01:18 am »
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I think the PSD will win, but not with this 47% like in the last poll. The Portuguese People don't think they have a better plan. They will win because many socialists will stay at home and not go to election.

Why don't Socialists vote for the other socialist parties instead?
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2011, 05:52:28 am »
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I think the PSD will win, but not with this 47% like in the last poll. The Portuguese People don't think they have a better plan. They will win because many socialists will stay at home and not go to election.

Why don't Socialists vote for the other socialist parties instead?

Some people will do this. I think the 3 smaller parties are underpolled. But it give many who vote for the PS, but never would vote for the Communists (PCP), especially in North Portugal. The B.E. is something like a mix between, in simple words, Trotzkists and Left-Greens. This isn't a mix who all Socialists like.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2011, 06:37:09 am »
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But it give many who vote for the PS, but never would vote for the Communists (PCP), especially in North Portugal. The B.E. is something like a mix between, in simple words, Trotzkists and Left-Greens. This isn't a mix who all Socialists like.

Even so, voting far-left can be an effective protest vote, without gifting the PSD - their principle opponents - even more of a crushing majority. Voting Communist and Trotskyist doesn't mean Portugal is any danger of becoming that, it just means the Socialists can rely on a few more votes when they want to defeat some objectionable PSD legislature.
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #16 on: March 24, 2011, 07:15:21 am »
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But it give many who vote for the PS, but never would vote for the Communists (PCP), especially in North Portugal. The B.E. is something like a mix between, in simple words, Trotzkists and Left-Greens. This isn't a mix who all Socialists like.

Even so, voting far-left can be an effective protest vote, without gifting the PSD - their principle opponents - even more of a crushing majority. Voting Communist and Trotskyist doesn't mean Portugal is any danger of becoming that, it just means the Socialists can rely on a few more votes when they want to defeat some objectionable PSD legislature.

You can't expect that a Catholic pensioner from northern Portugal, which normally votes for the PS now make his cross for the PCP or the B.E.. They stand for something he would never support. If he is not satisfied with the PS, then he stay at home or vote PSD or CDS.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2011, 07:16:42 am »
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BTW, it's hilarious to see a mainstream european right-wing party calling itself "social-democratic".
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2011, 09:00:12 am »
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In good old days there were also French PSD that was right wing.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #19 on: March 24, 2011, 10:20:07 pm »
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In Brazil, our main right-wing party is Social Democratic, but it began as left of center party.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #20 on: March 25, 2011, 12:03:21 am »
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Our Social Democrats started off centre-left, but then merged with the Liberals to form the Liberal Democrats and they're now supporting the Tories' Thatcherism redux. Suppose it makes sense, since they enabled Thatcher her three terms in the first place.

You can't expect that a Catholic pensioner from northern Portugal, which normally votes for the PS now make his cross for the PCP or the B.E.. They stand for something he would never support. If he is not satisfied with the PS, then he stay at home or vote PSD or CDS.

Indeed, I'm just sounding off about the benefits of leftist tactical voting, but if they'd rather PSD or CDS influence than far-leftist, then I suppose it's not particularly useful.
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« Reply #21 on: March 25, 2011, 02:27:10 am »
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Our Social Democrats started off centre-left, but then merged with the Liberals to form the Liberal Democrats and they're now supporting the Tories' Thatcherism redux.

I may be reading this entirely wrong, but I think that this is a logical result of the merger of the SDP, which always claimed to support European-style social democracy, with the Liberals, who were fundamentally an anti-socialist party.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #22 on: March 25, 2011, 03:33:43 am »
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In Brazil, our main right-wing party is Social Democratic, but it began as left of center party.

Well, Brazilian politics are particularly weird. Tongue
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #23 on: March 25, 2011, 05:11:44 am »
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     So it looks like the Social Democrats will see their best performance since 1991, but will still fall far short of 1991. Why exactly did the Socialists fall flat like this?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #24 on: March 25, 2011, 05:21:55 am »
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     So it looks like the Social Democrats will see their best performance since 1991, but will still fall far short of 1991. Why exactly did the Socialists fall flat like this?

Austerity isn't exactly the most popular policy ever.
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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