Portuguese General Election

[Leftbehind]

Doesn't the combined right vote exceed 50% in a large number of European countries and 40% in pretty much every country which suggests to me many in Europe do support the idea of lower taxes and less government.  Yes the nosiest oppose it much like here in Canada. We don't have a tea party movement like the US does and neither does Europe, although they do have a lot of racist/nationalist movements which are pretty vocal in some countries.

 
Does it? You tell me. The racist/nationalist parties tend not to be neoliberals, for instance. Recently a bunch of free-market fanatics tried to hold a tea-party-esque rally here in counter to the half-a-million opposition protest recently and received a humiliatingly low turnout.

Never mind a large chunk of state owned enterprises have been privatized and yet the governments who do it are re-elected.  I believe airlines, telecommunications, electricity, airports, and ferry service are mostly private in Europe whereas here in Canada electricity is still largely public, although it varies from province to province.  Even water privatization and health care privatization is far more rampant in Europe than Canada and in the case of the former even more so than the US.  In fact railways and the postal service seem to be the only state owned enterprises that haven't been privatized and even that is changing.  Also most European countries have a lower corporate tax rate than the US.  Sure one can blame the EU for pushing the neoliberal agenda, but based on voting patterns it seems either most Europeans support it or are indifferent to it.

I'd say Britain's the worst for that, and based off our voting patterns - Tory > New Labour > Tory-Liberal Coalition, you'd presume things which aren't actually the case. From the polling I've seen large majorities want to keep our remaining utilities in public ownership, and re-nationalise things that've been privatised (I can find you the polls if you're interested?), but the choice isn't there to effectively render in our vote as neoliberalism has gained ascendency as the model and is supported on a cross-party basis, so you're left to vote on the choices you're given.

[mileslunn]

Wouldn't some party promise to re-nationalize previously privatized industries if the idea was so popular.  After all, all parties want to win.  The only reason I can think of for them not doing it is the EU is against state ownership and defying the EU cannot be done without leaving which outside Britain has little support and in Britain it is mostly the right who wants to leave the EU.

[Leftbehind]

Evidently not. The privatisations ahead - Royal Mail, NHS - are unpopular and yet they're still going ahead. The past privatisations were unpopular and remain so today and yet neither of the main two are bothered rethinking them. I think there's an element of naivety on your part about our politics; parties here routinely ignore the public's views - even when they're overwhelming (tuition fees?).

Of course there are minor parties promising to act on these, but FPTP ensures no-one dares vote for them.

[ObserverIE]

As for the Canadian liberals cutting, it's not really comparable as they're a centrist party and thus don't have to worry too much about alienating a leftist support and their cuts were made in a completely different environment to today's, but it's pretty telling they've been reduced to third party status recently by a social democratic party.

More recently and relevantly, Fianna Fáil, who were traditionally an economically-centrist party with a large working-class base, earlier this year were reduced from 42% to 17% in a single election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The left makes the necessary cuts when they are necessary for a country's survival. The neoliberal right makes cuts just for the sake of making cuts, in spite of common sense, because they are a bunch of stupid hacks blinded by their silly ideology. That is the difference, Miles.

[mileslunn]

The left makes the necessary cuts when they are necessary for a country's survival. The neoliberal right makes cuts just for the sake of making cuts, in spite of common sense, because they are a bunch of stupid hacks blinded by their silly ideology. That is the difference, Miles.

  Actually the neo-liberal right believes big government slows economic growth and having a leaner more efficient government allows for more growth.  They believe in privatization since they believe most things are better run by the private sector.  In cases like electricity or postal service it may be debatable and thus why the right in some countries outside Europe are reluctant to touch those two, but for airlines and telecommunications, there is little evidence that state ownership is preferable.  Likewise under both left and right regimes, all European countries have some form of private involvement in health care and most have private schools and universities, otherwise the traditional left is for government monopolies, not government involvement, but with competition from the private sector.  And never mind, they must folllow EU rules so in electricity or postal service, monopolies are illegal under EU rules as are pretty much all public sector monopolies.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, what exactly makes the right more competent than the left to solve deficits ?

[DL]

So, what exactly makes the right more competent than the left to solve deficits ?

That's a good question since in almost every case - rightwing givernments are the ones that rack up huge deficits and leftwing governments end up find ways to balance the budget. That's certainly the case in North America.

[MaxQue]

The left makes the necessary cuts when they are necessary for a country's survival. The neoliberal right makes cuts just for the sake of making cuts, in spite of common sense, because they are a bunch of stupid hacks blinded by their silly ideology. That is the difference, Miles.

  Actually the neo-liberal right believes big government slows economic growth and having a leaner more efficient government allows for more growth.  They believe in privatization since they believe most things are better run by the private sector.  In cases like electricity or postal service it may be debatable and thus why the right in some countries outside Europe are reluctant to touch those two, but for airlines and telecommunications, there is little evidence that state ownership is preferable.  Likewise under both left and right regimes, all European countries have some form of private involvement in health care and most have private schools and universities, otherwise the traditional left is for government monopolies, not government involvement, but with competition from the private sector.  And never mind, they must folllow EU rules so in electricity or postal service, monopolies are illegal under EU rules as are pretty much all public sector monopolies.

Who wasted 1 billion for the G-8, while France did it for 14 millions? A fake lake in Toronto?
Who wasted all the 50+ million surplus left by the Liberals? Surplus was all wasted before the begnning of the crisis.
Who is wanting to but planes at an unknown cost, even when the US begin to doubt?
Which American party created an even bigger deficit with two wars and immoderate giant tax cuts?

Answer: It is not the left, it is the right in all those cases.

Sure, in some places, there are downright dishonest. Like France. The right says than they manage well, because the local governments are in a very bad situation, because the left leads them.

Well, the main cause of the problems of the local authories is than the France government dumps more and more duties and functions on the local authority, without giving them the money to fulfull them.

Being in a deficit because of offering services is better than being in deficit because of a too big tax cut, in my eyes.

[mileslunn]

As for cutting deficits, I will agree in Canada the Liberals have done a better job than the Conservatives but the Liberals are not a left wing party to begin with.  They tend to go to wherever they think the votes are so in the 70s it was on the left and they racked up massive deficits, while in the 90s it was on the right and they balanced the budget.  As for Europe, my question is taxes use to be a lot higher and you use to have a lot of state owned enterprises, whereas today it seems most have at least been partially privatized if not outright.  I believe it was the right who did this.  Also while you need some taxes, if they are too high in a globalized world it drives away business.  Especially within the EU where there is free mobility of capital and labour.  Also most privatizations have been generally successful although I agree some have been failures and one could argue in Europe they have gotten a bit carried away.  After all on electricity they are well ahead of Canada, while on airports, highways, water, and postal service they are well ahead of Canada and the United States.  In fact it seems like almost anything is fair game for privatization in the EU under certain circumstances.  As for the right being better, I should note here in Canada, the NDP in both Ontario and BC were disasters for deficits and high taxes and it was the right who cleaned it up.  One could also argue federally the Liberals under Trudeau who were on the left were a disaster whereas Mulroney, Chretien, and Martin who were regardless of party labels were more to the right played a role in cleaning up.  Mulroney didn't solve the deficit, but most economist say without the GST and free trade it would have been very difficult to balance the budget. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course one rather important thing was renationalised under the Blair administration; the railway network* (though not the train companies), the privatised 'Railtrack' company having distinguished itself with a record of sordid mismanagement and sheer incompetence that was impressive even by the rather low standards of British corporate management.

But... look... governments operate within certain frameworks, and those that try to break out of those frameworks are made to regret it pretty quickly. Imagine what would have happened had the newly elected Labour government in 1997 decided to nationalise almost everything (ignoring the fact that only one Labour government ever did nationalisation on a large scale and the fact that the Party leadership now believed in the idea that you could use the wealth generated by the new economy to pursue the Party's traditional goals in new ways. These are massive things to ignore, admittedly) that the Thatcher and Major governments had privatised.

Exactly.

Politics is about power, and not all of that power is controlled by elected governments. Any government in Portugal is going to do exactly what it is told to do by the rest of the world (acting in the interests of investors, for the most part) irrespective of the consequences; as we have seen already.

I've not read the discussion in much detail, so this post may seem like a bizarre tangent.

_{Officially of course the network was not nationalised, but given over to a not-for-profit company funded entirely by the taxpayer. Apparently there is an important difference.}

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today I start my prediction for the election. First the 2009 result. Only the seats, for the complete result look on this site: http://www.eleicoes.mj.pt/legislativas2009/


The mandates by district:

Açores     PS 3, PSD/PPD 2
Aveiro       PS 6, PSD/PPD 7, CDS/PP 2, B.E. 1,
Beja         PS 2; PCP-PEV 1

Braga       PS 9, PSD/PPD 6, CDS/PP 2, B.E. 1, PCP-PEV 1
Bragança      PS 1, PSD/PPD 2
Castelo Branco       PS 2, PSD/PPD 2

Coimbra    PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1
Évora       PS 1, PSD/PPD 1, PCP-PEV 1
Faro       PS 3, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1,

Guarda       PS 2, PSD/PPD 2
Leiria       PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1
Lisboa       PS 19, PSD/PPD 13, CDS/PP 5, B.E. 5, PCP-PEV 5

Madeira       PS 1, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1
Portalegre       PS 1, PSD/PPD 1
Porto       PS 18, PSD/PPD 12, CDS/PP 4, B.E. 3, PCP-PEV 2

Santarém       PS 4, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1, PCP-PEV 1
Setúbal       PS 7, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 2, PCP-PEV 4
Viana do Castelo     PS 3, PSD/PPD 2, CDS/PP 1

Vila Real      PS 2, PSD/PPD 3
Viseu       PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1

Europe  PS 1, PSD/PPD 1
Rest of the Word  PSD/PPD  2

PORTUGAL      PS 97, PSD/PPD 81, CDS/PP 21, B.E. 16, PCP-PEV 15




Açores

2009: PS 3, PSD/PPD 2

The Açores-Islands are in the last years a good place for the PS. This time it will be a close race who will be stronger PS or PSD. It is a coin-flip, but I see the PSD a little bit in the lead

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (-1), PSD 3 (+1)


Aveiro

2009: PS 6, PSD/PPD 7, CDS/PP 2, B.E. 1

A rural district with a medium-sized industrial city (Aveiro) and in the north, the southern suburbs of Porto. It is a very conservative part of Portugal. The B.E. will have problems to win their mandate again.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 6 (nc), PSD 8 (+1). CDS-PP 2 (nc)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Beja

2009: PS 2, PCP-PEV 1

The most left-wing dictrict of Portugal. One seat for the PS and for the Communists are save. With the last seat is many possible. PS, PCP-PEV and PSD have a chance to win it. I think the PS will lose and the PSD will winn some votes and that is enough for the PSD to win the last seat.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (-1), PSD 1 (+1). PCP-PEV 1(nc)


Braga

2009: PS 9, PSD/PPD 6, CDS/PP 2, B.E. 1, PCP-PEV 1

It is a District in the North of Porto and have many Industrial Cities there. In Braga the people are economical left, but socially conservative. The Catholic Church is a factor there, like in all northern disticts of Portugal. The last two seats will be close between all parties. The last mandate of the PSD and the CDS can go to PS or the PCP.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 8 (-1), PSD 8 (+2). CDS-PP 2 (nc), B.E. 0 (-1), PCP-PEV 1 (nc)


Bragança

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 2

A district full of Catholic Rednecks. Easy to predict

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 2 (nc)

[Niemeyerite]

I think communists will win the 2nd seat in Beja, while socialists can beat "socialdemocrats" in Açores. Let's see what happens, and hopefully, my prediction is the right one (bad result for the PSD).

[Hans-im-Glück]

Castelo Branco

2009: PS 2, PSD/PPD 2

The most progressive district of the northern inland and the home-district of José Sócrates. I don't expect any changes.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (nc), PSD 2 (nc)


Coimbra

2009: PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS-PP 1, B.E. 1

Coimbra is a big Univerity-City and in the bigger cities give it some industry. The rual parts are, like Aveiro, very conservative. Coimbra lose one mandate and will have in the new Parliament only 9 seats. Tha last seat is only the question CDS or B. E.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 4 (nc), PSD 4 (nc), CDS-PP 1 (nc), B. E. 0 (-1)


Évora

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 1, PCP-PEV 1

Like all parts of the Alentejo it is very left. In good Years the PS will win the last seat, but see no changes there.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 1 (nc), PCP-PEV 1 (nc)

[RodPresident]

Can PTP gain a seat or more in Madeira with dark horse José Manuel Coelho? It would be awesome to have him as swing vote in National Assembly. I think also that far-right PNR and far-left parties (PCTP and POUS) can try to make inroads in main districts (Lisbon and Porto) to get a seat in protest, although election looks to be very polarized to third (or sixth) parties gains.

[You kip if you want to...]

The left makes the necessary cuts when they are necessary for a country's survival. The neoliberal right makes cuts just for the sake of making cuts, in spite of common sense, because they are a bunch of stupid hacks blinded by their silly ideology. That is the difference, Miles.

You've hit the nail on the head. Similarly, the European Right believes that unemployment is a price worth paying for low inflation and low spending. It's not and it never works in the long-term.

If we can take anything from the recent economic troubles, it should be that these neo-liberal economic agendas, conceived in the 1980s by the right and semi-sustained by the left after its European successes in the 1990s, do not work.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Faro

2009: PS 3, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1

My home-district
Faro will have one seat more than 2009 and this could help the CDS to win the seat from last time again. The PS had last election a disastrous result there. I don't expect that the will lose much more. The B.E. will not have over 15% again but enough to get a mandate. The PCP needs only 2% more for a seat, but it will be not easy

My prediction for 2011:
PS 4 (+1), PSD 3 (nc), CDS-PP 1 (nc), B.E. 1 (nc)


Guarda

2009: PS 2, PSD/PPD 2

It is a little bit like Castelo Branco, only without José Sócrates. In a very good year the PSD can win there 3 seats, but I don't see it.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 2 (nc), PSD 2 (nc)


Leiria

2009: PS 4, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1

It is a very conservative, Catholic district, only with some left spots like Marinha Grande. I think the PS will hold  their seats, but the last will be very close. All other parties can win this seat too.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 4 (nc), PSD 5 (+1), CDS-PP 1 (nc), B.E. 0 (-1)

[Хahar 🤔]

As for the right being better, I should note here in Canada, the NDP in both Ontario and BC were disasters for deficits and high taxes and it was the right who cleaned it up.

On the other hand, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, both of which have had many NDP governments, the NDP's record in government has been one of rather bland competence.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Can PTP gain a seat or more in Madeira with dark horse José Manuel Coelho? It would be awesome to have him as swing vote in National Assembly. I think also that far-right PNR and far-left parties (PCTP and POUS) can try to make inroads in main districts (Lisbon and Porto) to get a seat in protest, although election looks to be very polarized to third (or sixth) parties gains.

Madeira is unpredictable. Coelho had 37 % in the Presidential election there, but vote the Madeirians for him again? Nobody can say this.

In Lisbon you need only 2% to get a seat. It is possible that one small party grt enough votes, but you are right the election is very polarized and I don't see it. The PCTP/MRPP have the biggest chance. The PNR is only a joke party, but it would be not the first time that a joke party come into a parliament


And for all poster who dicuss about left and right economical politics. We have a Board for this issue, this isn't the right place.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Lisboa

2009: PS 19, PSD/PPD 13, CDS/PP 5, B.E. 5, PCP-PEV 5

I wrote it in my post before. You need only 2% there for a seat and all small parties campaign there very heavy. Lisbon is a very left district, especially the northern and eastern suburbs are strongholds of the PS and the PCP. The B.E. is very very strong there. I don't see a small party with enough votes there. The PCP can win one seat more.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 18 (-1), PSD 15 (+2), CDS-PP 4 (-1), B.E. 4 (-1), PCP-PEV 6 (+1)


Madeira

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 4, CDS/PP 1

In Madeira exists no Democracy. It is like a One-Party-State, ruled by the PSD. Madeira is the most conservative district of Portugal, only in the Capital Funchal and in Machico the other parties have a chance. in the last Presidential election José Manuel Coelho, a regional Politician had 39% there. Now he is a member of the PTP (a Social Democratic Workers Party). If the Madeirians still like him, it is possible for a surprise seat for him. If ge get many votes, but no seat, the PS can win a second seat.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 4 (nc). CDS-PP 1 (nc)


Portalegre

2009: PS 1, PSD/PPD 1

The smallest district of Portugal. It is like all Alentejo districts very left. In a good Year the PS win both seats, but not this time. The PCP would have a chance for the 3dr seat, but Portalegre have only 2

My prediction for 2011:
PS 1 (nc), PSD 1 (nc)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Porto

2009: PS 18, PSD/PPD 12, CDS/PP 4, B.E. 3, PCP-PEV 2

The second-largest district of Portugal. Mainly the city of Porto and its suburbs. It is the industrial heartland of Portugal. It is in the nrth and so no stronghold for the PCP, but the PS have many time there more Seats like in Lisbon.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 17 (-1), PSD 14 (+2), CDS-PP 3 (-1), B.E. 2 (-1), PCP-PEV 3 (+1)

Santarém

2009: PS 4, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 1, PCP-PEV 1

Santarém is Portugal à miniature. In the North a Catholic Theocraty (Fatima), in the west it is no long way to Lisbon, a bigger industial city (Samtarém) and in the south a Communist stronghold like in Alentejo. I don't see big changes to the last election. Maybe the B.E. can lose their seat.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 4 (nc), PSD 4 (+1). CDS-PP 1 (nc), B.E. 0 (-1), PCP-PEV 1 (nc)


Setúbal

2009: PS 7, PSD/PPD 3, CDS/PP 1, B.E. 2, PCP-PEV 4

A very left-wing district. Mainy the southern suburbs of Lisbon and the industrial cities Setúbal and Palmela. The south is a part of the Alentejo. The CDS-seat isn't save and the last seat is close between the CDS and the PCP.

My prediction for 2011:
PS 6 (-1), PSD 4 (+1). CDS-PP 0 (-1), B.E. 2 (nc), PCP-PEV 5 (+1)

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is exactly the Portuguese electoral system, BTW ? Simple PR by constituency like in Spain ?

[minionofmidas]

I've not read the discussion in much detail, so this post may seem like a bizarre tangent.

On the contrary, it includes more lucidity than the remainder of the discussion taken together.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RodPresident]

Portugal uses D'Hondt method.