Canada 2011 Official Thread

[bullmoose88]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

[bullmoose88]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

I just mean, it seems like a NDP-BQ-Green merger is one of the signs of the apocalypse type deals.  So the liberals being the 3rd party rump must be virtually impossible...it would appear.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

I just mean, it seems like a NDP-BQ-Green merger is one of the signs of the apocalypse type deals.  So the liberals being the 3rd party rump must be virtually impossible...it would appear.

It's happened in some provinces (SK and Manitoba), but it's unlikely to happen nationwide. Just wait until Justin Trudeau is leader. Then the Liberals will get a boost in the polls and the NDP will be in the low teens for a while. Well, maybe not. The NDP will likely choose Thomas Mulcair as their next leader, and that would be very interesting.

[bullmoose88]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

I just mean, it seems like a NDP-BQ-Green merger is one of the signs of the apocalypse type deals.  So the liberals being the 3rd party rump must be virtually impossible...it would appear.

It's happened in some provinces (SK and Manitoba), but it's unlikely to happen nationwide. Just wait until Justin Trudeau is leader. Then the Liberals will get a boost in the polls and the NDP will be in the low teens for a while. Well, maybe not. The NDP will likely choose Thomas Mulcair as their next leader, and that would be very interesting.

A shame, from what little I've seen...I actually like Layton the most of the four.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

I just mean, it seems like a NDP-BQ-Green merger is one of the signs of the apocalypse type deals.  So the liberals being the 3rd party rump must be virtually impossible...it would appear.

It's happened in some provinces (SK and Manitoba), but it's unlikely to happen nationwide. Just wait until Justin Trudeau is leader. Then the Liberals will get a boost in the polls and the NDP will be in the low teens for a while. Well, maybe not. The NDP will likely choose Thomas Mulcair as their next leader, and that would be very interesting.

A shame, from what little I've seen...I actually like Layton the most of the four.

With his ailing health et al, I don't see him continuing on. Plus, the party is likely to lose some seats.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

A PM with a line mustache? Yes please!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two big roadblocks in front of that dream; the first is the fact that issues of nationality (could we even use a term like 'competing nationalisms'?) have tended to trump issues of class in federal politics; not a good thing for a social democratic party of any size. The second is that the 'natural' base for social democracy in Canada is a great deal smaller than in Britain or the other (former) white settler colonies. Which means that even if things were to go perfectly for the NDP they would have to consistently punch above their weight in order to become a major player.

Of course there are additional issues with the last point; in some parts of Canada (provincially, but historically federally as well) the CCF/NDP have been remarkably successful at doing just that, while elsewhere (especially federally - though not so much under Layton) they've tended to have a sketchy track record even in 'obvious' potential (and provincial and municipal) social democratic strongholds.

If somehow the dream becomes a reality, then Canada would only have to adopt cricket as a major sport and they might fit in with the rest of the club

I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming?

Sadly not the Ontario NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Before Labour came on the scene in Britain, as there a large social democratic base? Didn't it build over the years? That would have to happen in Canada too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Before Labour came on the scene in Britain, as there a large social democratic base? Didn't it build over the years? That would have to happen in Canada too.

Ah, now that's a controversial issue for various reasons. Ignoring that for now, in political terms your point is absolutely correct (of course), but I was looking at things from a slight different point of view; the 'traditional' working class in Canada is (and has always been) a lot smaller than in Britain, Australia and New Zealand, and also far more divided along non-class lines. So CCF/NDP were severely handicapped from the start (and their original rural base was never going to survive the twentieth century). Into that you have to add the remarkable success of the Liberal Party in appealing to successive groups of immigrants, which is a huge problem in cities where the working class (however defined) is largely made up of relatively recent immigrants and their children. That's before Quebec is considered, obviously.

I'm not trying to sound crushingly deterministic/pessimistic/etc; there have been positive signs recently, especially in non-metropolitan Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think you will see the NDP's base in the future being less "working class" and more liberal progressives of all stripes, but mostly in the middle class.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think you will see the NDP's base in the future being less "working class" and more liberal progressives of all stripes, but mostly in the middle class.

They've been even worse at attracting support from that general direction though (with certain notable exceptions). Of course if we're dealing in ideal situations, then it isn't an either/or question.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming?

Sadly not the Ontario NDP

You know a lot more about politics here than I give you credit for.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(and their original rural base was never going to survive the twentieth century)

I mean this literally, by the way. Not as in 'the original rural CCF vote was always going to work out that the CCF/NDP were socialist bastards eventually' but that the class on which that support was based no longer exists in a meaningful sense; they've either moved up or out.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

As you said yourself, class difference is not something that is really of importance here in Canada. Similar to the US. Beyond that, Quebec's voting patterns have never made sense compared to English countries. There is no difference it seems between urban and rural - at least the difference is very minor compared to the huge difference in English Canada.

The Liberals here are very different to the Liberals elsewhere because ours are very hungry. In the 20's they gobbled up the top half of the Progressives. Organizers, Staffers, even some MP's. Progressives who were "in" became Liberals. The remainder split between the CCF (mostly) and a few went on to help make the Conservatives officially Progressive.

The Liberals have also been able to gobble up those voters who in 1988 would have voted NDP. The moderate middle class, perhaps even "working class". The NDP is still fighting to get them back.

Now what's starting to happen is the Liberals are beginning to gobble up the Green Party.

Our Liberals are the most successful Liberal party in the world because they are highly adaptive.

[MaxQue]

So, French debate is finished.

To my opinion, Duceppe and Layton were very good, Ignatieff was average and Harper was totally useless. Said unrelated things all time and had a very weak voice. Seemed asleep more than anything else.

[Hatman 🍁]

French debate with English voice over: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/13/cv-election-french-language-debate.html

[MaxQue]

Oh God.

Internet is making an huge hype around "Muguette Paillé", one of the persons who asked a question in the debate.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

French debate with English voice over: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/13/cv-election-french-language-debate.html

lol @ CBC for having the Harper voiceover guy sound as queer as possible.

[MaxQue]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/04/13/cv-election-green-party-saldanha.html

One Green candidate is dropping out, because of strange comments about rape.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

"strange"?

[Smid]

Oh, great Boardbashi, please accept my humble offerings:



Full size version in the Gallery.

Greater Montreal is the name I stole from Wikipedia, as the map seems to fit pretty closely to the the Montreal Metropolitan Community.

[Hash]

So, French debate is finished.

To my opinion, Duceppe and Layton were very good, Ignatieff was average and Harper was totally useless. Said unrelated things all time and had a very weak voice. Seemed asleep more than anything else.

I'm not sure who won out of the 3 (probably Duceppe, though Ignatieff impressed me) but Harpy definitely lost. His fraudulent 'sweet honey' robotic 'i love kittens' voice pissed me off, and he was either off the mark on most issues or downright lying.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos - Toryslide as a good polling day for the CPC falls off.  The Bloc is also hit hard downward.  Dippers gain most:

Canada Trendline

Conservative	38.9%	-1.0
Liberal	31.1%	+0.7
NDP	18.3%	+2.0
BQ	7.5%	-1.6
Green	3.1%	-0.7

(3 days ending April 13)

[The Vorlon]

Tories steady, Grits drop, dippers on a roll.....