Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hash]

Nothing has surprised me yet, but it seems like support for the Greens has totally collapsed. Are the polls just underestimating the Green vote or does anyone else think that the Greens may in bad electoral shape?

Bad shape overall. Debate exclusion got them some media, but the actual fact of them being out surely didn't help. Other than that, May has turned the Greenies into a 'Elect Me, Myself and I' party. She's basically campaigning 24/7 in Saanich and running jokes everywhere else. It also seems as if there's a significant bloc of voters this year who'll vote strategically against Harper whereas in 2008 there wasn't that big of such a bloc.

[MaxQue]

And their membership was hurt when she changed the rules to kill a leadership challenge and to silence people opposing her in the party.

She turned the Greens in a personalist party.

[homelycooking]

What's the Green situation in Guelph? It sounds like U of Guelph students are organizing a big GOTV effort.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Other than that, May has turned the Greenies into a 'Elect Me, Myself and I' party. She's basically campaigning 24/7 in Saanich and running jokes everywhere else.

Worked for Lucas, didn't it?

[afleitch]

Other than that, May has turned the Greenies into a 'Elect Me, Myself and I' party. She's basically campaigning 24/7 in Saanich and running jokes everywhere else.

Worked for Lucas, didn't it?

Patrick Harvie is doing the same thing up here.

[Hash]

Other than that, May has turned the Greenies into a 'Elect Me, Myself and I' party. She's basically campaigning 24/7 in Saanich and running jokes everywhere else.

Worked for Lucas, didn't it?

May could well win, of course, but at the expense of seeing the Green vote nationally decline quite a bit.

[Hatman 🍁]

I never thought I'd say this, but I'm loving those Nanos numbers. Maybe there'll be some NDP gains

[MaxQue]

My mother received a robot call from Jack Layton, lol.

Abitibi--Baie--James--Nunavik--Eeyou seems a very important swing seat, since Jack Layton will be in Val-d'Or on Monday, Harper on Tuesday and Duceppe is supposed to come this week, too.

I have difficulties to believe NDP Quebec numbers, too. 24% with EKOS, 20% with Nanos.

The good news is than polls finally seem to agree in Canada.
While quite similar results to 2008. Well, normal, since before doesn't trust more Harper than before and Ignatieff is a right-wing clone of Dion.

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

[Hatman 🍁]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

Harris didn't have the BQ to contend with.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the BQ evaporate and to have all those BQ voters vote NDP?  Suddenly the NDP would be looking at over 80 seats, and official opposition status

[MaxQue]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

I think Harper is too smart for that. I hate him, but I must admit than he way ahead of the other leaders in political strategy.
But, the base can get tired of him not winning a majority...

[MaxQue]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

Harris didn't have the BQ to contend with.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the BQ evaporate and to have all those BQ voters vote NDP?  Suddenly the NDP would be looking at over 80 seats, and official opposition status

It began, I would say.
BQ is a party which need a theme to run on.
1993, Meech.
1997 and 2000, it declined.
2004 and 2006, Adscam
2008, culture cuts
2011, it seems to decline.

And I suppose Duceppe will step down someday, which will hurt BQ much, I suppose. No other MP than him is known.

But, Earl, don't get too optimistic, NDP won't catch all BQ votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

Harris didn't have the BQ to contend with.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the BQ evaporate and to have all those BQ voters vote NDP?  Suddenly the NDP would be looking at over 80 seats, and official opposition status

It began, I would say.
BQ is a party which need a theme to run on.
1993, Meech.
1997 and 2000, it declined.
2004 and 2006, Adscam
2008, culture cuts
2011, it seems to decline.

And I suppose Duceppe will step down someday, which will hurt BQ much, I suppose. No other MP than him is known.

But, Earl, don't get too optimistic, NDP won't catch all BQ votes.

I know, but it's a nice thought!

[cinyc]

Some Nanos weekend weirdness, this time predominantly boosting the Bloc at the expense of the Liberals and Dippers:

Conservative	39.0%	+0.2
Liberal	28.3%	-0.5
NDP	18.4%	-0.8
BQ	9.6%	+1.1
Green	3.6%	+0.2

(3 days ending April 16)

[Hatman 🍁]

Based on a uniform swing, the Tories would need about 41% to get a majority.

[Smid]

I've added some insets. Here is the 2008 map:



As always, bigger version in the gallery, including a blank map.

EDIT: Changed Bloc from Purple to Aqua, using Al's colour scheme. Changed palest two Conservative shades to Al's colour scheme.

[Hatman 🍁]

been a while since I've seen the BQ in purple.

[bgwah]

I don't suppose Canadian cities have some sort of equivalent to precinct maps?

[Smid]

been a while since I've seen the BQ in purple.

I did that so it was easier to differentiate between them and a marginal Conservative seat.

Bgwah, I believe this is the thread you're looking for, re: precinct maps.

[bgwah]

Awesome. Thanks.

Those maps certainly show the strategic voting.

[Hatman 🍁]

I noticed The Citizen had a "precinct" map of Glengarry-Prescott-Russell in today's paper. Good to see that

[Hatman 🍁]

Awesome. Thanks.

Those maps certainly show the strategic voting.

For sure. I especially noticed it in Vancouver (look at how people were free to choose who they wanted in Vancouver Centre)

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

been a while since I've seen the BQ in purple.

I did that so it was easier to differentiate between them and a marginal Conservative seat.

Bgwah, I believe this is the thread you're looking for, re: precinct maps.

Thank you for distracting me from my homework!

[The Vorlon]

Leger/QMI says:

Tories 38
Grits 26
Dippers 22

http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/17/18028066.html

The poll was conducted April 15 to 17, after last week's leaders debates. Leger surveyed 3,534 respondents selected randomly from its online panel of more than 350,000 Canadians. The pollster says results would be accurate to within 1.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20 for a similar-sized group selected randomly from among all Canadians.

[MaxQue]

La Presse (in French, sorry) website also have precincts map for all Canada up.

Talking of La Presse, the last Angus Reid/La Presse poll (online poll, too, I suppose. Angus Reid is usually online polls, if I remember well. And they were the only one to have the good results in Quebec 2007 provincial elections.):

Tories: 36
Grits: 25
Dippers: 25

Still, I don't believe it. Ignatieff may be weak, but he can't go lower than Dion!

And Quebec sub-polls for Leger and Angus Reid (because federal polls are useless to follow Quebec)
Bloc: 34/36
NDP: 24/26
Grits: 20/19
Tories: 20/17