Canada 2011 Official Thread

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos - Tory domination:

Conservative	42.3%	+1.6
Liberal	28.4%	-1.0
NDP	16.4%	-0.5
BQ	8.0%	NC    -
Green	3.8%	-0.2

   

[Bacon King]

Slightly off topic I suppose, but is any party talking about electoral reform of any sort, campaigning on it at all? Do Canadians even care about the shortcomings of their FPTP system?

[cinyc]

Slightly off topic I suppose, but is any party talking about electoral reform of any sort, campaigning on it at all? Do Canadians even care about the shortcomings of their FPTP system?

I know the Conservatives are talking about abolishing the public campaign finance system, but I don't think any but the smaller parties (NDP and Greens) would want to move to proportional representation at this point.

[rob in cal]

Have any polls asked for the second choice of voters?  I'd be interested in seeing how NDP, Green and Bloc Q voters would go.  My guess is NDP and Green would go 80-20 for Liberals over Conservatives, and Bloc Q a little less pro Grits.  I realize this is a totally theoretical issue, but with AV possibly coming into force in the UK, an interesting question nonetheless.

[Bacon King]

Have any polls asked for the second choice of voters?  I'd be interested in seeing how NDP, Green and Bloc Q voters would go.  My guess is NDP and Green would go 80-20 for Liberals over Conservatives, and Bloc Q a little less pro Grits.  I realize this is a totally theoretical issue, but with AV possibly coming into force in the UK, an interesting question nonetheless.

Not just a theoretical issue- second preferences can also relevant for tactical voting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Have any polls asked for the second choice of voters?  I'd be interested in seeing how NDP, Green and Bloc Q voters would go.  My guess is NDP and Green would go 80-20 for Liberals over Conservatives, and Bloc Q a little less pro Grits.  I realize this is a totally theoretical issue, but with AV possibly coming into force in the UK, an interesting question nonetheless.

Yes, most pollsters do this.

Conservatives don't really like the idea of having a 2nd option, but many would vote Liberal. The other parties (Greens, Libs, Bloc) usually second preference the NDP, while NDPers tend to second preferences the  Liberals.

[Frodo]

Today's Nanos - Tory domination:

Conservative	42.3%	+1.6
Liberal	28.4%	-1.0
NDP	16.4%	-0.5
BQ	8.0%	NC    -
Green	3.8%	-0.2

   

What's even more important than the daily national tracking poll are the numbers in two key provinces that Conservatives must do really well in if they are to claim the majority:



and



Both from the Globe/CTV/Nanos poll, in the Globe and Mail article.  

[DL]

The polls are very contradictory. Nanos shows a big Tory lead, but Harris Decima just came out with a poll showing just a 7 point margin C35L28N17 - which would mean nowhere near a majority!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

One poll has the Tories going down and the Liberals going up. Another shows the exact reverse. The remainder are too rare to quantify.

[Hash]

Nanos' daily tracking makes them appear to be the top pollsters above all others, when in fact they haven't been the top pollster since 2006.

Anyways, Nanos' poll for today now sez:
CPC 39.8 (-2.5)
LPC 30.2 (+1.8)
NDP 16.5 (+0.1)
BQ 8.3 (+0.3)
GRN 4 (+0.2)

[DL]

Nanos' daily tracking makes them appear to be the top pollsters above all others, when in fact they haven't been the top pollster since 2006.

Its kind of silly to even play the game of "top pollster" - in polling you're only ever as good as your last pre-election poll. Its really luck more than anything else that determines who ends up being closest to the final results.

[cinyc]

Today's Nanos shows little change, with Dippers moving most:

Conservative	39.7%	-0.1
Liberal	29.9%	-0.3
NDP	17.4%	+0.9
BQ	8.3%	NC    -
Green	3.8%	-0.2

[MaxQue]

Angus-Reid (accordinc to "La Presse" website) (internet poll, but they had the best result for Federal 2008 and Quebec 2007) (n=2031)

Conservatives: 38%
Liberals: 27%
NDP: 21%

Quebec sub-sample (n=558)

Bloc: 34%
NDP: 24%
Conservatives: 19%
Liberals: 18%

Honestly, I never saw polls being all over the place like that.
Usually, they all say the same thing.
Not this time, they seem confused.

NDP seems quite too high in the poll, especially in Quebec, but, could be true, consdering they literally flood Quebec TV with their ads (which is a thing they never did before, ever).

And still the phenomenon than polls with a big sample in Quebec seeing much higher NDP results than those with smaller samples. Strange and nor normal at all.

Others parties are having quite normal results.

[Hash]

What seems pretty confirmed is that the Greenies will do quite badly. Nanos has them at 3-4%, but they don't, iirc, poll them like the others. Other pollsters have them in the 6-8% range. Considering they overpoll by 1-2% in those other polls, it seems pretty clear that they'll take under their 2008 levels.

All of this because May has turned the party into a Elect Me Party at the expense of all others.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amusing: Hec Clouthier (he of the fedora) is running as an independent in his old seat.

[cinyc]

Next Nanos - not much change.

Conservative	39.6%	-0.1
Liberal	30.4%	+0.5
NDP	17.2%	-0.2
BQ	8.3%	NC    -
Green	3.2%	-0.6

(3 days ending April 6)

[cinyc]

Friday Nanos - Dippers Dip:

Conservative	40.6%	+1.0
Liberal	31.1%	+0.7
NDP	14.9%	-2.3
BQ	8.7%	+0.4
Green	3.4%	+0.2

(3 days ending April 7)

[Associate Justice PiT]

     That's the worst result the tracking poll has shown for the NDP so far by about a full percent. Probably a bad sample, though I'm interested to see what it looks like three days from now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The most recent poll from each company; if already reported here it's in italics.

EKOS: Con 36, Lib 28, NDP 17, Greenies 9, BQ 9
Nanos: Con 41, Lib 31, NDP 15, BQ 9, Greenies 3
Forum Research: Con 38, Lib 26, NDP 20, Greenies 9, BQ 8
Environics: Con 38, Lib 25, NDP 20, BQ 8, Greenies 8
Angus Reid: Con 38, Lib 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, Greenies 6
Harris-Decima: Con 35, Lib 28, NDP 17, BQ 10, Greenies 8
Leger: Con 37, Lib 26, NDP 18, BQ 10, Greenies 8

Figures rounded, because I can.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. Well, if the sign war is any indication in my riding, Paul Dewar will win. He's got maybe 80% of the signs on residential property in my neighbourhood. Albeit, I live in an NDP-friendly part of the riding. 10% of the signs are Liberal, and there's a few Greens and Tory signs.

Meanwhile in Ottawa South, I've only seen Liberal signs there on residential property, but I know we have signs up, because I'm working on the campaign (from a distance). Our signs have Arabic on them

[Hatman 🍁]

[DL]

The most recent poll from each company; if already reported here it's in italics.

EKOS: Con 36, Lib 28, NDP 17, Greenies 9, BQ 9
Nanos: Con 41, Lib 31, NDP 15, BQ 9, Greenies 3
Forum Research: Con 38, Lib 26, NDP 20, Greenies 9, BQ 8
Environics: Con 38, Lib 25, NDP 20, BQ 8, Greenies 8
Angus Reid: Con 38, Lib 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, Greenies 6
Harris-Decima: Con 35, Lib 28, NDP 17, BQ 10, Greenies 8
Leger: Con 37, Lib 26, NDP 18, BQ 10, Greenies 8

Figures rounded, because I can.

...and now you can add one more to your list as Ipsos just released a poll: Con 41%, Lib 26%, NDP 19%, BQ 8%, Green 4%

[Lincoln Republican]

All these polls seem to confirm the Conservatives have an 8 to 10 point lead over the Liberals.

Is this an indication the Conservatives could possibly be in a good position to win a majority?

Thoughts?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two ridings in Montreal do have polls done of them:

Lac-Saint-Louis: Lib 46%, Con 26%, NDP 12%, Green 8%, BQ 7%
Outremont: NDP 47%, Lib 27%, BQ 14%, Con 7%, Green 5%

Obviously the record of constituency poll is bad just about everywhere, etc, etc, etc.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The margins are large enough to be significant.