Canada 2011 Official Thread

[cp]

Yay! I'm going to be in the country for the election (for the first time since 2006).

Though I doubt this will change the Tories' talking points very much, Ignatieff has "categorically" ruled out participating in a coalition.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ignatieff-rules-out-coalition/article1958015/

On another note, are there any good Canadian politics blogs/forums/sites that people follow other than this one? Someone mentioned threehundredeight.com, which is one of my favourites, but I'd like to know if there are any that offer a more qualitative analysis of the parties and the campaign; preferably from a non-hackish perspective.

[cp]

There is a distinct possibility, though I refuse to believe it till I see it. The last time we had four elections in so short a time (1962, 1963, 1965, 1968) the fourth ended in a majority government. Already the PM has explicitly asked for us to be given a majority, letting the word slip once but emphasizing stability. Chretien didn't get his 1997 majority (in the Balkanized '90s) until the last 10 days of the campaign.

Well observed. The similarities go deeper: the first election saw the ruling party reduced from majority to minority rule and the middle two elections saw the former opposition rule with minority governments while the formerly-ruling party squabbled bitterly over its leadership (Diefenbaker and Stanfield).

It's worth remembering, however, that the fourth election saw the ruling party replace its leader for a new, charismatic bachelor named Pierre Trudeau. His eponymous mania, combined with his sangfroid at the St. Jean Baptiste Day riots, won him a majority. Anyone see that happening with Harper?

[cp]

What's the absolute best case scenario for the NDP? I take it that even with Layton cashing in on being the most likable federal politician for the past 3-4 years official opposition status is way out of their reach?

The talented Éric Grenier calculated 44 seats. I suspect this is an understatement. The NDP can hope for 50-60 seats if there was a real collapse of the Liberal Party - mind you, this would almost certainly result in a 200+ seat majority for the Tories, so it would be a rather Pyrrhic victory. 

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/03/february-2011-best-and-worst-case.html

Realistically, I have trouble seeing them gain much more than they have. They might hit 40 seats if the Liberals do badly, but that assumes the Liberals would be worse off now than they were in 2008 under Dion running on the Green Shift. Conversely, their floor is probably around 18-20 seats.

[cp]

Good question. Layton's only returned positive results for the NDP. Having never suffered a loss before (Winnipeg North being a possible exception) it's difficult to gauge how he'd be affected.

I think he's popular enough with the party that he'd be the favourite to win if there was a leadership challenge. But he's 60. There are questions about his health. And Thomas Mulcair wants his job. Kind of a coin toss. And Dippers want to comment?