Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Frodo]

It will be funny if voters reward Conservatives with a parliamentary majority on May 3rd -the exact opposite of Liberal hopes when they brought down this government.  

Is there any likelihood of this happening?  

[Frodo]

Though this article does not say so explicitly, it suggests that a Conservative parliamentary majority would be good for the Canadian left, bringing greater pressure to bear on the Liberal, New Democratic, and Green parties to unite in a merger 'formal and definitive' the way the various parties of the right eventually fused to form the Conservative Party after more than a decade of Liberal electoral dominance:

Defection, debate challenge may signal seismic shift in Canadian politics
 
By Randy Boswell, Postmedia News
March 31, 2011 4:26 PM

Erstwhile NDP candidate Ryan Dolby's defection to his Liberal rival in London, Ont., on Wednesday — an apparent bid to prevent vote-splitting and thus defeat the riding's Conservative candidate — was cheered by Liberals but has prompted accusations of betrayal from the jilted NDP and "coalition" from the Conservatives.

But on a day when Green party leader Elizabeth May also faced exclusion from the televised leaders' debate, and NDP leader Jack Layton was left out of a proposed one-on-one showdown between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, could Wednesday's campaign highlights portend a much deeper, even seismic shift in the Canadian political landscape?

Eight years after the creation of the Conservative Party of Canada ended a long and bruising battle to "unite the right" and set the stage for this election's potential Harper majority, Dolby's shocking bolt and the proposed narrowing of debate lineups — each storyline raising the spectre of consolidation on the centre-left side of the country's political spectrum — offered a glimpse of what may be the ultimate solution for so-called "progressive" Canadians aiming to halt the rise of the right.

[Frodo]

If Stephen Harper's Conservative Party wins a majority in Parliament this year, what would be the deadline by which he would have to call the next election?  2015?  2016? 

[Frodo]

Today's Nanos - Tory domination:

Conservative	42.3%	+1.6
Liberal	28.4%	-1.0
NDP	16.4%	-0.5
BQ	8.0%	NC    -
Green	3.8%	-0.2

   

What's even more important than the daily national tracking poll are the numbers in two key provinces that Conservatives must do really well in if they are to claim the majority:



and



Both from the Globe/CTV/Nanos poll, in the Globe and Mail article.  

[Frodo]

Worth noting that at least part of the great victory won by Conservatives has been their apparently successful outreach to the immigrant community -wonder if Republicans here will be able to replicate that:
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How courting the immigrant vote paid off for the Tories

JOE FRIESEN AND JULIAN SHER
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, May. 03, 2011 10:40PM EDT
Last updated Wednesday, May. 04, 2011 10:49AM EDT

Fifteen cups of tea. That’s how the election was won.

In one day during the 2011 election campaign, Citizenship and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney attended 15 different chai parties hosted by Indo-Canadian voters in Brampton West, Ont. That’s just a snapshot of his epic cross-Canada campaigning, but it’s indicative of the stamina and persistence of the Conservative point man for ethnic communities.

He and Prime Minister Stephen Harper have transformed their party from one that was perceived as hostile to new Canadians to one that is now home to a great many immigrant voters and Members of Parliament.

The Conservative majority was won primarily in the suburban ridings of the 905 area code and in the City of Toronto. Of the 18 seats they gained in that region, 14 are more than 45 per cent immigrant, and most would not long ago have been considered un-winnable for the Conservatives.

[Frodo]

Worth noting that at least part of the great victory won by Conservatives has been their apparently successful outreach to the immigrant community -wonder if Republicans here will be able to replicate that:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How courting the immigrant vote paid off for the Tories

JOE FRIESEN AND JULIAN SHER
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, May. 03, 2011 10:40PM EDT
Last updated Wednesday, May. 04, 2011 10:49AM EDT

Fifteen cups of tea. That’s how the election was won.

In one day during the 2011 election campaign, Citizenship and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney attended 15 different chai parties hosted by Indo-Canadian voters in Brampton West, Ont. That’s just a snapshot of his epic cross-Canada campaigning, but it’s indicative of the stamina and persistence of the Conservative point man for ethnic communities.

He and Prime Minister Stephen Harper have transformed their party from one that was perceived as hostile to new Canadians to one that is now home to a great many immigrant voters and Members of Parliament.

The Conservative majority was won primarily in the suburban ridings of the 905 area code and in the City of Toronto. Of the 18 seats they gained in that region, 14 are more than 45 per cent immigrant, and most would not long ago have been considered un-winnable for the Conservatives.

Canada is far less xenophobic in nature than the US. Left-wing parties in Canada are very supportive of more open immigration and even the Tories take a rather neutral stance. Canada's population has far more immigrants than the US in proportion, and by far more immigrants who actually participate in the political process, giving them power. It's actually funny how much immigrants can actually steer elections in Canada considering that the ridings cram so many immigrants into overpopulated ridings, while the vast majority of ridings are rural are underpopulated.

Also, immigrants tend to be very anti-immigrant in Canada. Hence why Rob Ford won in Toronto.

Explain?  

[Frodo]

Just read an interesting analysis of the recent election -to summarize, it is stating that because of westward population shifts, growth of suburban riders, and the changes in the economy from one based on manufacturing to the service sector, the Conservative Party is set to become the natural governing party of Canada in the 21st century -just as the Liberals were the natural governing party of the 20th century.