Canada 2011 Official Thread

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Thanks for posting those links, mate!

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And seats where the NDP may lose?

Welland...

Provincially, the NDP won it with more than 50% of the vote, didn't they? I'm really hoping that there's a good party structure there that will help the NDP defend it, although if not, vote splitting could see it go Tory and help gain a majority. I've sort of assumed that with it being provincially held, if the incumbent is half decent, there should be some consolidation of the NDP vote there.

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Combination of a pro-Tory sample coming on and a pro-Grit sample dropping off?

Actually, been a bit of a rollarcoaster ride for the Tories these past couple of days, down 1, then up 1.7... Something seems a bit off, a rogue poll in the mix, perhaps? I note the NDP up two points across the past two days. Were they perhaps under-estimated in earlier polls or is there something of a resurgence for them?

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low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

It wouldn't be the Liberals getting the boost in seats first (how quickly do the Tories begin to win seats on a swing away from BQ)? Or is that irrelevant as both parties would gain seats to some degree by a swing away from BQ...and with the Tories closer to the post...bam.

Don't know... but my thought would be that it probably benefits the Liberals/NDP in Montreal, and the Tories in rural Quebec, and possibly Quebec City? I know the whole hockey arena thing there, but last election the Bloc picked up that seat of the Tories (I forget the seat, but I think it had Herbert in the name? It was Luc Harvey's seat, the northeastern corner of the city) - but that wasn't because the Bloc picked up votes, it was because the federalist vote split and the Tories lost enough votes to the Liberals to end up in second place behind the Bloc. If the Bloc loses enough votes, it could be a potential Tory gain, even if those votes flow predominantly to the Liberals. No doubt there are a plethora of seats that defy my generalisation, but that's how I see it. I'm sure MaxQue and others will be able to point out the probably numerous holes in my logic.

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Could be some BQ voters are turning to the NDP. Or they're just not going to vote.

low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

It wouldn't be the Liberals getting the boost in seats first (how quickly do the Tories begin to win seats on a swing away from BQ)? Or is that irrelevant as both parties would gain seats to some degree by a swing away from BQ...and with the Tories closer to the post...bam.

Don't know... but my thought would be that it probably benefits the Liberals/NDP in Montreal, and the Tories in rural Quebec, and possibly Quebec City? I know the whole hockey arena thing there, but last election the Bloc picked up that seat of the Tories (I forget the seat, but I think it had Herbert in the name? It was Luc Harvey's seat, the northeastern corner of the city) - but that wasn't because the Bloc picked up votes, it was because the federalist vote split and the Tories lost enough votes to the Liberals to end up in second place behind the Bloc. If the Bloc loses enough votes, it could be a potential Tory gain, even if those votes flow predominantly to the Liberals. No doubt there are a plethora of seats that defy my generalisation, but that's how I see it. I'm sure MaxQue and others will be able to point out the probably numerous holes in my logic.

Louis-Hebert (avec un accent) is what you're thinking of. A.K.A, Quebec West.

That's the one! I didn't want to have a guess at it because the name is similar to Saint Hubert, and I get them confused.

Last election saw many of the largest swings in Quebec going to the NDP. I have a map of that, too large for the gallery (as you know...) I might try to shrink it and post a smaller one.

EDIT: Resized it, so now the Ottawa area really does desperately require an inset, but regardless, here it is, simply to back up my comments about the swings to the NDP in much of Southern Quebec, including Montreal. Bigger version in the Gallery.



SECOND EDIT: Beware of Nova Scotia in particular... the exceptionally strong swing to the Greens is an overstatement, given that the Liberals didn't run so that they wouldn't take votes from Elizabeth May - and therefore the swing to the Greens was mostly from the Liberals. Likewise, the swing to the independent was because he ran (and won) as a Conservative candidate in the previous election, therefore all of his vote is considered a swing to him... it would in some ways be more accruate to show the swing to him as a comparison with the previous Conservative vote, but then I'd be making an arbitrary decision, so I'd prefer to add this caveat instead.

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Edit: I wonder whether it might be possible to edit that swing map into a useable outline map? Actually it would. Just a matter of finding the time.

Started on it, as one of a million other "little" jobs I'm working on. It'll probably take a little while, although I think it will bump up my priority list as the election draws closer. The original map is 3792 by 2918 pixels, so I shrunk it to the maximum size with a width of 2500 pixels. I'll add in an Ottawa inset and go over the boundaries.

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Speeding things up by keeping all the insets the original sizes... I can fit them around the place, that means it's mostly the rural ridings and coastlines that need updating, only.

EDIT: Finished Maritimes, Quebec and Ontario. 

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Oh, great Boardbashi, please accept my humble offerings:



Full size version in the Gallery.

Greater Montreal is the name I stole from Wikipedia, as the map seems to fit pretty closely to the the Montreal Metropolitan Community.

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I've added some insets. Here is the 2008 map:



As always, bigger version in the gallery, including a blank map.

EDIT: Changed Bloc from Purple to Aqua, using Al's colour scheme. Changed palest two Conservative shades to Al's colour scheme.

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been a while since I've seen the BQ in purple.

I did that so it was easier to differentiate between them and a marginal Conservative seat.

Bgwah, I believe this is the thread you're looking for, re: precinct maps.

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That's all really, really nice work

Thanks, Al! Glad you appreciate it!

It would be really weird if the NDP got a better result in Quebec than Ontario.

I think the NDP would have done substantially better in Quebec last election, had the Liberal leader not been from there. It's merely an outsider's perspective, but it really seemed to me that Dion was more uninspiring outside of Quebec, and that he probably partially led to some of the NDP gains in Northern Ontario, etc, but may have helped prevent some of the Liberal decline in Quebec/Montreal. Perhaps with Ignatieff, the NDP may be able to make further gains in Quebec (while hopefully consolidating their gains in the rest of Canada).

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Test run, using the 2008 results.

Looking good!

Longueuil and Terrebonne is a bit hard to see, I note. I'm presently preparing I've just finished another inset.

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There's also a Sherbrooke and a Newfoundland poll out there somewhere.

A friend of my wife is running in either Shefford or Sherbrooke, so if you can dig it up, I'd be interested...

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NDP as official opposition plus a Tory majority would give the nation plenty of time (like, four years) to get used to the NDP as an alternative government.

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Max, I think there is a Notre-Dame Riding (if you look at the Montreal map, I think it's the Southern one on the island, with a northern boundary that looks a bit like a flattened W).

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I was worried, I misread "seeing" as "seeking"...

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I'm surprised you haven't included Ahuntsic, Papineau or Westmount-Ville-Marie in the NDP gains. Possibly also the Laval seats? Is your Nunavut call an actual expectation or simply a no-polls-so-predicting-no-changes prediction? Also surprised by your position on Saulte Ste Marie - I'd think strategic voting would benefit the NDP there, although I can understand you not wanting to jinx the result. I also thought Kenora might be a pickup for you. I think Tory gains in Vancouver South and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (I'm typing from memory on my phone so names could very easily be mis-spelt, I hope you understand which seats I mean) would probably lead to an improved NDP vote in the long-run because the strategic voting is also quite clear along the boundaries of Victoria, Saanich-Gulf Islands and E-JdF - can clearly see the change from Liberal to NDP along the boundaries of Victoria - I am sure there is no drastic change in demographics there.

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Teddy, it's got your final projection, presumably based on polling figures from the final week. How close were you if we plugged the actual results into your calculator?

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My assumption is that some of the seat variance between your prediction and the final result was due in part to a difference between the polls you used and the actual results on the day. If the on-the-day results were entered into your seat calculator, this probably would have improved your accuracy and therefore the accuracy of your model. Did you do any re-calculation following the election to show how many errors were actually caused by polling inaccuracies outside your control?

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I can understand broadcasting results on tv or radio, or publishing election results on general news websites to prevent people who might still be considering voting seeing results, unless they specifically seek those results out. I mean, I can understand supressing results in a general broadcast, so if you're watching tv news, you won't see the results, likewise radio. Also logging onto, say CNN's website wouldn't have a headline about the election results, however the Elections Canada website should have results, and if a media outlet registered a new web page specifically to report election results, that should be okay because anyone actively seeking election results is likely interested enough to either already have voted or to not be deterred from voting by simply looking up election results. 

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Sorry, haven't quite figured out quoting properly on the iPhone, so haven't been able to properly comment the past few days.

I find the spike in Francophones in South-Eastern Manitoba (Provincher and through to St Boniface) remarkable. I was also a little surprised by the large numbers in Northern Ontario, but that wasn't a massive surprise, given the proximity to Quebec and all, and same for Eastern Ontario, but the South-Eastern Manitoba results really stand out.

Some of the other results were interesting, too - the higher numbers in Northern Alberta (I assume that is because of the availability of jobs in the oil sector there?) and Welland?

I knew that Northern New Brunswick has many Francophones, but I didn't realise the numbers were quite that high! I mean, some of those Ridings have a higher proportion than parts of Southern Montreal!

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Someone doesn't know his Canadian french history!

St. Boniface is a francophone enclave in Winnipeg, and there are many old French settlements in Manitoba. One must remember, it was settled by the French (and the Metis). There is at least one French community in Alberta, and I think that's what you're seeing. Also, Northern Ontario has a lot of French pockets, and there are sizable French communities in Welland, Penetanguishene and in Essex County in Ontario.  In fact, I met a French guy yesterday on my trip to the Gatineau rally, who grew up in a French neighbourhood of Welland.

I must admit, my knowledge of Canadian history is very limited. I learn a little from my wife, read a little on here, and look up and read bits that interest me and are things that I realise that I don't know (as opposed to reading about it generally... James Wolfe and the French and Indian Wars interest me greatly - I love that era).

Thanks for clarifying some of those interesting results!

A map of bilingualism would be quite interesting, too, I suspect.

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I've got my own little prediction sheet, similar to Teddy's (but his is much more complex and probably more accurate). Mine's very similar to the Election Calculus one in the UK - just using their simple transition model because I'm not particularly brilliant at maths.

Anyway, I subbed in the numbers from that poll (and added a smidgeon for rounding in Alberta and Quebec). Obviously it's based on a poll a week before the election and all the Margins for Error and whatnot mean it may be a fair bit off what will eventuate.

The overall numbers based on it (bearing in mind there's still a week to go and MoE is large, etc) according to my little spreadsheet work out as:

Conservative: 140 (-4)
Liberal: 52 (-24)
NDP: 91 (+55)
Bloc: 22 (-27)
Greens: 0 (+0)

Obviously there are certain elements surrounding Elizabeth May which could result in the Conservative and Greens totals changing. I also called the independents in Quebec and NS Conservative for the purposes of who probably votes for them (and therefore estimating their results - a weakness in and of itself).

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Al, your suggestion of Labour in the UK in the 1920s is exactly how I've been comparing the NDP rise this week to some political friends over here.

If the NDP end up with more seats than the Liberals, their demise is likely, I'd suggest. If the Liberals back Layton for PM, they give a federal NDP legitimacy as a contender for government and they will surely lose support to them. If they decide to not do that but to prop up a Harper minority, the exodus of Liberal supporters to the NDP will be swift and virtually absolute. Either way, it seems to me that if the NDP win more seats than the Liberals (irrespective of which party receives the higher vote), the NDP will surely become the dominant non-Tory party. that's why I believe the 1920s example for the NDP is the more accurate one. Much, of course, having to do with their place on the ideological spectrum. It's harder for more centrist parties to outperform. The NDP surge could do to the centre-left Liberals what Reform did to the centre-right PC.

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Oh, Lewis - have you seen the polling trend lines at ElectionAlmanac? I'm sure you have, but if not, they have polling tables and graphs.