Canada 2011 Official Thread

[MaxQue]

Whether the Conservatives can win a majority may well depend on how well the BQ does.  If the BQ does poorly, while it would help the liberals even more, the Conservatives could conceivably gain as many as 3 seats in Quebec as a result.  Conversely if the BQ does well, they could cost the Conservatives 1 or 2 seats, plus the nominally independent André Arthur.

Well, according to polling, in Quebec City area, Conservatives are now polling behind BQ, mainly because Conservatives don't want to fund the hockey rink project of Quebec City.

[MaxQue]

I've seen the Tories trailing in Quebec City, and I see them losing a few seats there. I like the CROP poll. If the NDP is at 20% in Quebec... wow...

Well, that is an interesting thing, not only saw in those polls. In general, since a few months, NDP polling in Quebec depends much on the pollster.

Federal polling, Quebec-subsample: Around 14%
Quebec polling, federal voting question (Léger Marketing and CROP): Around 20%

Why? Does asking provincial voting intention first is raising NDP votes?
It doesn't seem quite logic.

[MaxQue]

So, you are right, Hashemite, so, I'll try to not be an hack, even if I'm member of a party, now.

Vorlon, I think you switched Léger and CROP in your numbers.

Nanos' poll seems to be quite in line with other polls, i.e. status quo.

Earl: If you look subsambles of NDP numbers since last elections in Quebec polls, the progress (not saw by national polls) is in Quebec City and outside Montreal and Quebec RMA. So, "rural" Quebec. But, sub-samples, so caution.

But  that could be possible, I know people in my native area which would consider voting for them in the good circumstances. Which is totally new, there.

So, yes, I'm in Outremont. Situation there is a race between Mulcair (NDP) and Martin Cauchon, former Justice Minister of Chrétien (Liberal). BQ and Conservatives are not in position of winning.

So, Montreal Island.

As usual, I would say than most races are boring. Check Papineau (Trudeau against Barbot(BQ, former MP)), Ahuntsic (BQ against Liberals), Lac-Saint-Louis (Anglo suburban, hyper-wealthy seat, on West Island. Conservatives are running Larry Smith, senator and former president of the Montreal Alouettes, a football club.). Jeanne-Le Ber, perhaps, I don't know. For an NDP gain in Quebec, I would check more in Gatineau or Hull-Aylmer (??). With a big question mark, especially for the latter.

I follow more my native region, Abitibi.

In Abitibi-Témiscamingue, the BQ incumbent, Marc Lemay will be reelected. NDP is nobody yet are are irrelevent there. Conservatives are running a 26 year old candidate, a political advisor to Pierre Corbeil, a provincial minister in the impopular provincial government (and Pierre Corbeil's riding is in the part of Abitibi which is in the other federal riding, so, wrong area). Liberals are running an unknown woman, which said than she will run a new style campaign, on social networks, without signs or an electoral office (that is code for saying "I have no funds at all, the party doesn't care about that unwinnable riding").

In Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou (ABJNE), my native riding and the one where I'll move back during the campaign, there is a 3-way race, for now.

The Bloc incumbent, Yvon Lévesque, running again, at 70 years old.
The Conservative candidate, which finished 2nd last time, the mayor of Senneterre, Jean-Maurice Matte. Last election, Harper went to the main city in the riding during the election and said he could be named minister if elected and Harper visited the riding twice in February-March this year. A clear target, I think.
The Liberal candidate, Léandre Gervais, a guy which founded a powerful engineering firm in Abitibi. The business people in the area should side with him, he is well-known, too. Could be difficult with voters, because of all the scandals of engineering firms funding illegally the provincial Liberal party.
Again, NDP is irrelevent, unless the rumors of a star candidate in the riding comes true, this time (there was some in 2006 and 2008). According to Elections Canada database (and credits to Pundits' Guide website for finding that), they named a sociology teacher in Chibougamau, in the North as their candidate in January, but never notified the media, which acts as there is no candidate, for now.
For now, as the Liberal candidate is stronger than last time, I forecast a BQ win, but tightly.

And I would like to signal to NDP and Conservatives than a good website has a candidate list! Those parties don't, it is quite bad. By the way, the French NDP website doesn't even seem to have an MP list.

[MaxQue]

Again, NDP is irrelevent, unless the rumors of a star candidate in the riding comes true, this time (there was some in 2006 and 2008).

They came true, finally.
Romeo Saganash, a important guy in the Cree community.
To me, that clearly kills the Liberal candidate odds of winning, since I suppose he will rack the Native vote this time, while that vote is overwhelmingly Liberal, usually.

[MaxQue]

Good, the Conservative finally put a candidate list online. Even Green Party has one.

NDP is still waiting, I find that unprofessional.

[MaxQue]

True. In Montreal, Metro and 24Heures are good newspapers (even if 24Heures belongs to Sun Media)

By the way, Sun Media, owner of Sun News (a canadian version of Fox News, which will be lauuched this month) wasn't conservative in the beginning. It belongs to Quebecor Media.

It was independantist, like the founder (the father of the current boss) was. He was quite respectable and liked by its employees, unlike the current one, which is some neoliberal slime.

(And I should stop dissing Quebecor, they own my Internet provider, too.)

[MaxQue]

Angus-Reid (accordinc to "La Presse" website) (internet poll, but they had the best result for Federal 2008 and Quebec 2007) (n=2031)

Conservatives: 38%
Liberals: 27%
NDP: 21%

Quebec sub-sample (n=558)

Bloc: 34%
NDP: 24%
Conservatives: 19%
Liberals: 18%

Honestly, I never saw polls being all over the place like that.
Usually, they all say the same thing.
Not this time, they seem confused.

NDP seems quite too high in the poll, especially in Quebec, but, could be true, consdering they literally flood Quebec TV with their ads (which is a thing they never did before, ever).

And still the phenomenon than polls with a big sample in Quebec seeing much higher NDP results than those with smaller samples. Strange and nor normal at all.

Others parties are having quite normal results.

[MaxQue]

So, French debate is finished.

To my opinion, Duceppe and Layton were very good, Ignatieff was average and Harper was totally useless. Said unrelated things all time and had a very weak voice. Seemed asleep more than anything else.

[MaxQue]

Oh God.

Internet is making an huge hype around "Muguette Paillé", one of the persons who asked a question in the debate.

[MaxQue]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/04/13/cv-election-green-party-saldanha.html

One Green candidate is dropping out, because of strange comments about rape.

[MaxQue]

This is probably a bigger issue in B.C. than elsewhere - except perhaps, Quebec, where immigration from non-French speaking areas isn't very well liked.  Quebec wants full control over immigration there - but that's a whole different issue.

Quebec is having different ads than the rest of Canada.
Even political parties have different slogans.

See, Conservative Party.
"Here for Canada" in English
"Notre région au pouvoir" (Our region to power) in French.

NDP does the same thing.

[MaxQue]

This is probably a bigger issue in B.C. than elsewhere - except perhaps, Quebec, where immigration from non-French speaking areas isn't very well liked.  Quebec wants full control over immigration there - but that's a whole different issue.

Quebec is having different ads than the rest of Canada.
Even political parties have different slogans.

See, Conservative Party.
"Here for Canada" in English
"Notre région au pouvoir" (Our region to power) in French.

NDP does the same thing.

I believe the Tory human smuggling ad was also made in French.  Whether it or any of these ads have been shown on TV is something I can't answer. 

Nor can I critique the Bloc's ads, since I don't speak French.  From Their slogan - translating into something like let's talk about Quebec - is pretty lame.  Why just talk about Quebec?  Do something.

It is hard to do things when you are in perpertual opposition and hated in the other provinces.

Refudiate: "Our region into power"? In short, it means "elect someone which is in the party in power, so your region participates in the exercise of the power."

Which is lies, since the only regions which was power are Calgary, Tar Sands Land and Bible Belt.

[MaxQue]

It is hard to do things when you are in perpertual opposition and hated in the other provinces.

Refudiate: "Our region into power"? In short, it means "elect someone which is in the party in power, so your region participates in the exercise of the power."

Which is lies, since the only regions which was power are Calgary, Tar Sands Land and Bible Belt.

Eh, the Bloc's slogan opens them up to the accusation that all they do is talk, not get results.  I know the Liberals are using it against them - as they should.  It's not a great slogan.

I was not defending Bloc, I was rather bashing it for being in perpertual opposition. It can't the Prime Minister seat and refuse to be part of a government.

Conservative slogan is bad. Bloc slogan is bad. Liberals don't really have a slogan. For NDP, I'll not comment.

[MaxQue]

And their membership was hurt when she changed the rules to kill a leadership challenge and to silence people opposing her in the party.

She turned the Greens in a personalist party.

[MaxQue]

My mother received a robot call from Jack Layton, lol.

Abitibi--Baie--James--Nunavik--Eeyou seems a very important swing seat, since Jack Layton will be in Val-d'Or on Monday, Harper on Tuesday and Duceppe is supposed to come this week, too.

I have difficulties to believe NDP Quebec numbers, too. 24% with EKOS, 20% with Nanos.

The good news is than polls finally seem to agree in Canada.
While quite similar results to 2008. Well, normal, since before doesn't trust more Harper than before and Ignatieff is a right-wing clone of Dion.

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

[MaxQue]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

I think Harper is too smart for that. I hate him, but I must admit than he way ahead of the other leaders in political strategy.
But, the base can get tired of him not winning a majority...

[MaxQue]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

Harris didn't have the BQ to contend with.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the BQ evaporate and to have all those BQ voters vote NDP?  Suddenly the NDP would be looking at over 80 seats, and official opposition status

It began, I would say.
BQ is a party which need a theme to run on.
1993, Meech.
1997 and 2000, it declined.
2004 and 2006, Adscam
2008, culture cuts
2011, it seems to decline.

And I suppose Duceppe will step down someday, which will hurt BQ much, I suppose. No other MP than him is known.

But, Earl, don't get too optimistic, NDP won't catch all BQ votes.

[MaxQue]

La Presse (in French, sorry) website also have precincts map for all Canada up.

Talking of La Presse, the last Angus Reid/La Presse poll (online poll, too, I suppose. Angus Reid is usually online polls, if I remember well. And they were the only one to have the good results in Quebec 2007 provincial elections.):

Tories: 36
Grits: 25
Dippers: 25

Still, I don't believe it. Ignatieff may be weak, but he can't go lower than Dion!

And Quebec sub-polls for Leger and Angus Reid (because federal polls are useless to follow Quebec)
Bloc: 34/36
NDP: 24/26
Grits: 20/19
Tories: 20/17

[MaxQue]

Who is Abacus?
A new pollster?
A pollster who changed his name?

[MaxQue]

Two more Quebec riding polls... Leger again, apparently.

Abitibi-Témiscamingue: BQ 45, NDP 21, Lib 16, Con 15, Green 3
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou: BQ 30, Con 24, NDP 22, Liberal 20, Green 3

Not sure why they bothered with the latter as there are obvious reasons why it might be a little tricky to poll accurately.

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou is one of the four NDP top targets, Al. It is also a Conservative target and a Liberal target, from what I heard.
Layton came on Monday, Harper on Tuesday, Duceppe is supposed to come this weekend, and there is persistant rumors about Ignatieff coming next week.
Sure than there is obvious reasons that makes the polling there very dubious, at best. But it back my prediction of a 4-way race.

And it is my home riding, so, I'm happy to see it in the spotlight.

[MaxQue]

Yes I know it's a high profile race, but I'd assumed that the obvious issues with polling such a place would prevent any attempt to do so.

Given the record of riding polls, that wouldn't be the first failure nor the last one.

[MaxQue]

I believe than there will be a late swing from NDP to Bloc, because of the calls than Duceppe is doing for strategical votes.

Better than attacking NDP.

Some people I know will vote NDP (to my surprise) and other people are undecided, they are irritated by the very aggressive Bloc campaign.

There seem to be a Layton-surge in Quebec in the last month. Will that stay hold until election? That is the question which will decide some results.

[MaxQue]

That is plain ridiculous. Let's hopen than Layton isn't the new Dumont.

Well, with those numbers, I suppose than Mulcair is ultra-safe.

[MaxQue]

Also Canadian polls are released at odd hours.

They are releashed in newspapers (the sponsors) of the morning. Their internet versions are all (for most, at least) published at midnight.

When TV stations buy them, they are released during 10 PM news.

[MaxQue]

That is plain ridiculous. Let's hopen than Layton isn't the new Dumont.

Let's hope he's not the new Bob Rae. Let's say the NDP wins a majority of seats in Quebec. Most of his caucus will be very inexperienced. I suppose they wont form Government, so it's still ok. However, if everything falls in place, the NDP could become the official opposition, or very close to it, which will bode well for the future .

A very inexperienced caucus can do a good job. See René Lévesque in 1976. He had only 6 MNAs before the election.