Canada 2011 Official Thread (user search)
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Associate Justice PiT
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« on: March 26, 2011, 12:36:38 AM »

     Given that recent polling has shown the Conservatives running about as well as they did last time, this seems like a potentially foolish move on the part of the Liberals. Has there been any significant criticism within the opposition of this move?
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2011, 04:48:45 PM »


     I found them on Wikipedia, though unfortunately no provincial-level polling.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2011, 01:00:55 AM »


     I found them on Wikipedia, though unfortunately no provincial-level polling.

Caveat Emptor on provincial-level polling.  In past cycles, provincial "polls" usually were just subsamples of the national polling.  MoEs for most provinces were notoriously large - sometimes double digits for Atlantic Canada and Western Canada, if B.C. wasn't included.  Even B.C.'s MoEs were often high single digits.  Ontario's subsample was often large enough to draw some conclusions, and Quebec had one or two Quebec-only polls, IIRC.   Atlantic Canada also might have had one true regional poll, but it wasn't run frequently enough to determine trends.

     I thought that it was odd that there weren't any provincial-level polls there, but that explains it. It seems that sub-national polling, let alone polling of individual legislative races, is a mostly American phenomenon.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2011, 02:43:40 PM »

     That's the worst result the tracking poll has shown for the NDP so far by about a full percent. Probably a bad sample, though I'm interested to see what it looks like three days from now.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2011, 12:53:44 PM »

     Even after the wild swing to the NDP, they are still doing worse than in other polls. I'm guessing that they're really at ~18% right now.
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