Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Nichlemn]

Seems pretty likely the status quo will prevail, which is a waste.

[Nichlemn]

What are the statistics on governments that lose a vote of confidence and then win the subsequent election? The chances don't seem great if Joe Clark and Paul Martin were any indication. Maybe the Liberals can at least hope that history is on their side?

If I remember correctly, the Conservatives were still polling behind the Paul Martin Liberals when the government fell in 2006.

The important factor is why they lost the vote of no-confidence. It's usually because of unpopular decisions, which should already be reflected in polling. As such, polling is almost certainly a better predictor of results than the means of a government falling, exceptions like 2006 not withstanding.

[Nichlemn]

All these polls seem to confirm the Conservatives have an 8 to 10 point lead over the Liberals.

Is this an indication the Conservatives could possibly be in a good position to win a majority?

Thoughts?

National polls are meaningless in Canada, it all depends on where that support is coming from, and by that, I mean Ontario.

What matters are swing districts, and while Ontario has an above-average number of them, it by no means has all of them.

[Nichlemn]

Had a dream last night that the Tories won a 200+ seat majority and the NDP came in third. Sorry guys.

Do you often have political dreams? (I'm no better - I've dreamed about forum posting before).