Canada 2011 Official Thread

[RogueBeaver]

Parliament will be dissolved tomorrow morning with polling day likely to be May 2.

For non-Canucks, I'll compile a list of sources you can use to follow.

Globe and Mail (globeandmail.com): Our equivalent of The Times but more centrist.

Toronto Star (thestar.com): Our equivalent of The Guardian .

National Post (nationalpost.com): Our equivalent of the Telegraph .

ThreeHundredEight.com (threehundredeight.blogspot.com): Canadian equivalent of Nate Silver's 538 blog.

CBC (cbc.ca): self-explanatory.


French


La Presse (cyberpresse.ca) : centre-right, Quebec version of the Globe .
RDS :  Radio-Canada, the French division of the CBC.

[RogueBeaver]

Thank you. What is the numbers of seats Conservatives need for a majority?

155/308 seats, roughly 40% PV.

[RogueBeaver]

Ever since the Liberal civil war, they seem to have lost their nerve for internal coups and prefer to use the electorate as their Human Resources Department to dump their leaders. Until they write a new Red Book and make it more than a one-time shot like Chretien did, they can continue cycling through Stornoway. Frankly I'm far more interested in who the next Liberal leader will be: Kennedy or LeBlanc.

There has only been one coalition in Canadian history, which put the senior partner out of contention for the better part of over six decades. Even the other example, Lib-Lab, had the senior partner with the most seats and votes, which the Liberals do not.

[RogueBeaver]

So this will be the second, and the defeat was also partially engineered by the government here. All the parties wanted an election for different reasons, it's foolish to believe otherwise. The opposition is tired of propping us up, Duceppe doesn't care one way or the other if there's a campaign, and the Liberals again want the electorate, not the caucus, to fire their leader.

[RogueBeaver]

There is a distinct possibility, though I refuse to believe it till I see it. The last time we had four elections in so short a time (1962, 1963, 1965, 1968) the fourth ended in a majority government. Already the PM has explicitly asked for us to be given a majority, letting the word slip once but emphasizing stability. Chretien didn't get his 1997 majority (in the Balkanized '90s) until the last 10 days of the campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking as a Quebecer, the BQ will pick up Brossard and Portneuf, which leaves them at 49. Duceppe's top priority is trying to unseat Trudeau in Papineau, though Trudeau will (thankfully) win again.

The poll numbers are not budging for Iggy nationally, and there is no animating issue to this campaign, all tax credits, mudslinging and spreading some corporate wealth around (to paraphrase POTUS) to students. He will lose 5-10 seats.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP often polls well but if you check 308 it doesn't translate into seats. They'll keep Mulcair's seat and that's it.

Re contempt: polls show that the economy and healthcare are by far the most important issues. It doesn't poll well outside the Hill-verse. 62% think the economy trumps ethics, so once the PM starts discussing the economy the Liberals can keep prattling on about the irrelevant issue.

[RogueBeaver]

I haven't changed my mind since May: Liberals will regain OO in '15. Hopefully.