Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems pretty likely the status quo will prevail, which is a waste.

While that's more likely than not, it's worth noting that the Canadian electorate can be a fickle thing, particularly during election campaigns.

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I have to say, Mulcair looks like an epic leader. Why do so few politicians these days opt for even the most modest of beards?

Their image advisors tell them not to.

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Have there been any boundary changes?

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Shouldn't NDP organizers be less depressing?

Party workers are usually glass entirely empty people. It's usually better that way as well...

Provincially, the NDP won it with more than 50% of the vote, didn't they?

Incumbent provincially is massively - absurdly even - personally popular.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will the fact that Liberal leader Ignatieff spent more than three decades away from Canada come back to haunt him in this campaign?

Already featured on Tory adverts. Not pleasant, even if it's mildly amusing to see the leader of a nationalist party on the wrong side of a base appeal to nationalism.

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He was also a late-night arts tv presenter on the BBC! So strange to see him as a senior politician. Whatever next? First Minister Wark?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trouble is that regional breakdowns are often worse than useless... but that you have to look at them anyway wrt Canada for obvious reasons.

I thought that it was odd that there weren't any provincial-level polls there, but that explains it. It seems that sub-national polling, let alone polling of individual legislative races, is a mostly American phenomenon.

It's a financial issue, mostly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The poll numbers are not budging for Iggy nationally, and there is no animating issue to this campaign, all tax credits, mudslinging and spreading some corporate wealth around (to paraphrase POTUS) to students. He will lose 5-10 seats.

I don't know about you, but it appears Harper's excellent tendency to shoot himself in the foot whenever things are going well has been proven again. As soon as the election was called he immediately accused the opposition of plotting to form a coalition (instead of doing the safe and sensible thing, which is to focus on the economy). This issue might be coming back to bite him with accusations of his own coalition attempts. Expect the Liberals and NDP to seize this case and use it build their theme of a government of "contempt".

...and, of course, the Canadian electorate is a remarkably volatile thing. I mean, even the volatility during campaigns is real, unlike here.

Which isn't to say that the Tories aren't the favourites to win (and maybe win outright?), but a foregone conclusion this is not.

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If they're doing daily polls, then the numbers will bounce around wildly.

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Everybody grow up please. No infractions will be dealt out as that isn't how I like doing things, but when I'm next online posts will be moderated and/or deleted unless already altered. Thanks/diolch.

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Amusing: Hec Clouthier (he of the fedora) is running as an independent in his old seat.

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The most recent poll from each company; if already reported here it's in italics.

EKOS: Con 36, Lib 28, NDP 17, Greenies 9, BQ 9
Nanos: Con 41, Lib 31, NDP 15, BQ 9, Greenies 3
Forum Research: Con 38, Lib 26, NDP 20, Greenies 9, BQ 8
Environics: Con 38, Lib 25, NDP 20, BQ 8, Greenies 8
Angus Reid: Con 38, Lib 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, Greenies 6
Harris-Decima: Con 35, Lib 28, NDP 17, BQ 10, Greenies 8
Leger: Con 37, Lib 26, NDP 18, BQ 10, Greenies 8

Figures rounded, because I can.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two ridings in Montreal do have polls done of them:

Lac-Saint-Louis: Lib 46%, Con 26%, NDP 12%, Green 8%, BQ 7%
Outremont: NDP 47%, Lib 27%, BQ 14%, Con 7%, Green 5%

Obviously the record of constituency poll is bad just about everywhere, etc, etc, etc.

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I suspect they just picked up a duff sample. Happens.

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No one knows what the hell is going on in Quebec this election. I mean more than normal. Fun!

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He stays cool because he's a robot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or you could use the sh**tty outline map developed specially for this very forum:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or you could go to Hell for table breaking

My Toronto/Montreal maps rock anyway. The others are kind of sh!tty, but then I was working quickly.

Edit: I wonder whether it might be possible to edit that swing map into a useable outline map? Actually it would. Just a matter of finding the time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Started on it, as one of a million other "little" jobs I'm working on.

I know the feeling...

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Excellent!

If time gets tight, I'm more than happy to act as a second hand.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An Official Decree From The Boardbashi

Everyone keep posting things related - even inane comments will do so long as vaguely on-topic - until we hit a new page. Diolch.

Edit: Hah! No need. It seems that I'm magick.

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There are always a few oddballs, but the general pattern is what it is:

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Two big roadblocks in front of that dream; the first is the fact that issues of nationality (could we even use a term like 'competing nationalisms'?) have tended to trump issues of class in federal politics; not a good thing for a social democratic party of any size. The second is that the 'natural' base for social democracy in Canada is a great deal smaller than in Britain or the other (former) white settler colonies. Which means that even if things were to go perfectly for the NDP they would have to consistently punch above their weight in order to become a major player.

Of course there are additional issues with the last point; in some parts of Canada (provincially, but historically federally as well) the CCF/NDP have been remarkably successful at doing just that, while elsewhere (especially federally - though not so much under Layton) they've tended to have a sketchy track record even in 'obvious' potential (and provincial and municipal) social democratic strongholds.

If somehow the dream becomes a reality, then Canada would only have to adopt cricket as a major sport and they might fit in with the rest of the club

I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming?

Sadly not the Ontario NDP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Before Labour came on the scene in Britain, as there a large social democratic base? Didn't it build over the years? That would have to happen in Canada too.

Ah, now that's a controversial issue for various reasons. Ignoring that for now, in political terms your point is absolutely correct (of course), but I was looking at things from a slight different point of view; the 'traditional' working class in Canada is (and has always been) a lot smaller than in Britain, Australia and New Zealand, and also far more divided along non-class lines. So CCF/NDP were severely handicapped from the start (and their original rural base was never going to survive the twentieth century). Into that you have to add the remarkable success of the Liberal Party in appealing to successive groups of immigrants, which is a huge problem in cities where the working class (however defined) is largely made up of relatively recent immigrants and their children. That's before Quebec is considered, obviously.

I'm not trying to sound crushingly deterministic/pessimistic/etc; there have been positive signs recently, especially in non-metropolitan Ontario.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think you will see the NDP's base in the future being less "working class" and more liberal progressives of all stripes, but mostly in the middle class.

They've been even worse at attracting support from that general direction though (with certain notable exceptions). Of course if we're dealing in ideal situations, then it isn't an either/or question.

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(and their original rural base was never going to survive the twentieth century)

I mean this literally, by the way. Not as in 'the original rural CCF vote was always going to work out that the CCF/NDP were socialist bastards eventually' but that the class on which that support was based no longer exists in a meaningful sense; they've either moved up or out.

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Not a fan of Party Political Broadcasts?