Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Depending on what polls are to believed, the Tories are on the cusp of a majority.

Here's where we shape up:
Greens: 0 (no one thinks Elizabeth May will win)
NDP 25-40
BQ 45-55
Liberals 55-75
Tories 145-160

[Hatman 🍁]

I have to say, Mulcair looks like an epic leader. Why do so few politicians these days opt for even the most modest of beards?

Mulcair is an opportunistic egomaniac.

Quite the opposite. What man on Earth would opt to run for a party that has no history of winning in the province, when he could have just as easily run for the Liberals, and would have worked far less hard to win the seat.

Well, perhaps he really wants to be a party leader, but he's not opportunistic enough to want to be Prime Minister, unless he foresees some cosmic realignment that will make the NDP win an election?

[Hatman 🍁]

I haven't seen any signs of the NDP gaining seats this election. Most likely there will be some modest losses, meaning that Layton will be out for sure. Mostly because of his health. I for one welcome our new supreme leader, Thomas Mulcair. However, I will probably work on the campaign of Peter Julian's leadership, because I've worked for him on the hill. (rumours have been that he will run as well).

[Hatman 🍁]

I've seen plenty of signs that the NDP will gain seats - I can rhyme them off - Surrey North, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Newton-North Delta, North Vancouver Island, Edmonton East, Palliser, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Parkdale-High Park, Davenport, Gatineau, Dartmouth, South Shore-St. Margarets, St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

I'm not sure what "signs" you need to see that the NDP can and probably will gain seats. Most polls have the party slightly above what it got in the last election and a rising tide raises all ships.

While I wish this were true, the truth is the NDP is likely to not win any of those seats. I'll break them down:

*Surrey North: After Winnipeg North, this is the most likely chance of an NDP pick up. It is a traditional NDP riding. If the NDP runs a good campaign there, they can win it, but Dona Cadman has lots of name recognition and it will be tough- especially with immigrants starting to vote for the Tories.
*Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca - could be an NDP pick up, as it will be an open seat and anything could happen. The NDP did finish a distant 3rd last time, however.
*Newton-North Delta - this was a target in previous elections, but in 2008, the NDP was squeezed into 3rd. Perhaps enough Tory/Liberal vote splitting may have the NDP come up the middle, but it is doubtful.
*North Vancouver Island - this one may be close again, but I see the gap widening, especially now that Catherine Bell won't be running.
*Edmonton East - Same race as 2008. I see the NDP may make some inroads, but not enough to win it.
*Palliser - oh please, Saskatchewan? I've had hopes for a long time to win back some Saskatchewan seats, but I lost faith in that now.
*Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar - see Palliser. SK Premier Brad Wall is very popular right now. It's not a good time to be a dipper in Sask.
*Parkdale-High Park. Nope. Kennedy is way too popular.
*Davenport. Hahahaha. Really?
*Gatineau - this is my wet dream, but a recent poll showed Boivin in a distant 3rd. She will probably finish 2nd... or could even win, but she'll have to work really hard again.
*Dartmouth-Cole Harbour - Nope. I've been hoping for a change here since Wendy Lill retired in 2004. Savage is too popular, and with the NDP falling provincially, there will be few if any gains in the province
*South Shore-St. Margaret's. Another Earle vs. Keddy fight that will be just like the others. In fact, the gap will probably widen some more.
*St. John's South-Mt. Pearl - same race as last time. The NDP could win if the Tories which will do better in NL this time steal enough Liberal votes. But, I think most Tories voted NDP last time, so that's not going to happen.

And seats where the NDP may lose?
Welland, Sault Ste. Marie & Burnaby-Douglas are some good bets to start with.

[Hatman 🍁]

Shouldn't NDP organizers be less depressing?

Party workers are usually glass entirely empty people. It's usually better that way as well...

Provincially, the NDP won it with more than 50% of the vote, didn't they?

Incumbent provincially is massively - absurdly even - personally popular.

Indeed, Peter Kormos is very popular. Not to say Welland isn't NDP friendly, as it has a NDP pockets- and the candidate in 2008 was not the same as the 2006 candidate (he lost the nomination in '08 and ran as an independent). So, there is a definite basis there.

Shouldn't NDP organizers be less depressing?

Well, in the past some of my few failed predictions have come from over estimating the NDP, so I've tried a different approach

[Hatman 🍁]

While we're briefly on the topic of possible NDP pickups, the big northern SK riding is a possibility - the 2006/2008 results are irrelevant, since they've got the Chief of the Saskatchewan Federation of Indian Nations as their candidate instead of the unknown white dude they had the last couple of rounds. (Turnout patterns and internal Liberal/NDP politics up there are very hard to predict from the outside, though).

Interesting. A quick look at electionpredictions.org indicates that the last three predictions have been for the NDP. Not a riding that I've thought about lately. Will have to keep my eye on it.

[Hatman 🍁]

The trouble is that regional breakdowns are often worse than useless... but that you have to look at them anyway wrt Canada for obvious reasons.

I thought that it was odd that there weren't any provincial-level polls there, but that explains it. It seems that sub-national polling, let alone polling of individual legislative races, is a mostly American phenomenon.

It's a financial issue, mostly.

There are a few, but they aren't very good. Our districts are much smaller than in the US.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've seen the Tories trailing in Quebec City, and I see them losing a few seats there. I like the CROP poll. If the NDP is at 20% in Quebec... wow...

[Hatman 🍁]

I've seen the Tories trailing in Quebec City, and I see them losing a few seats there. I like the CROP poll. If the NDP is at 20% in Quebec... wow...

Well, that is an interesting thing, not only saw in those polls. In general, since a few months, NDP polling in Quebec depends much on the pollster.

Federal polling, Quebec-subsample: Around 14%
Quebec polling, federal voting question (Léger Marketing and CROP): Around 20%

Why? Does asking provincial voting intention first is raising NDP votes?
It doesn't seem quite logic.

You live in Outremont, right? What are things like there so far? the rest of the island?

[Hatman 🍁]

Though this article does not say so explicitly, it suggests that a Conservative parliamentary majority would be good for the Canadian left, bringing greater pressure to bear on the Liberal, New Democratic, and Green parties to unite in a merger 'formal and definitive' the way the various parties of the right eventually fused to form the Conservative Party after more than a decade of Liberal electoral dominance:

Defection, debate challenge may signal seismic shift in Canadian politics
 
By Randy Boswell, Postmedia News
March 31, 2011 4:26 PM

Erstwhile NDP candidate Ryan Dolby's defection to his Liberal rival in London, Ont., on Wednesday — an apparent bid to prevent vote-splitting and thus defeat the riding's Conservative candidate — was cheered by Liberals but has prompted accusations of betrayal from the jilted NDP and "coalition" from the Conservatives.

But on a day when Green party leader Elizabeth May also faced exclusion from the televised leaders' debate, and NDP leader Jack Layton was left out of a proposed one-on-one showdown between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, could Wednesday's campaign highlights portend a much deeper, even seismic shift in the Canadian political landscape?

Eight years after the creation of the Conservative Party of Canada ended a long and bruising battle to "unite the right" and set the stage for this election's potential Harper majority, Dolby's shocking bolt and the proposed narrowing of debate lineups — each storyline raising the spectre of consolidation on the centre-left side of the country's political spectrum — offered a glimpse of what may be the ultimate solution for so-called "progressive" Canadians aiming to halt the rise of the right.

The Liberals are on the centre of the Canadian political spectrum, so I don't know why anyone thinks the NDP and the Greens should merge them.  I would be in favour of a green-NDP merger, however. Even bring on the BQ, eventually.

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS IVR poll

NDP: 17.2 (+3.0)
Cons: 36.9 (+1.6)
Lib: 26.2 (-1.9)
Grn: 8.7 (-1.9)
BQ: 8.5 (-1.2)

[Hatman 🍁]

I hate this sh**thole of a country.

Conservative   41.3%   +1.9   
Liberal   30.3%   -1.4   
NDP   16.0%   -0.1   
BQ   8.5%   NC   -
Green   3.7%   -0.7   

Seriously, how can people be so dumb? We're not Sicily.

Seriously. The NDP is not in majority territory, after all

[Hatman 🍁]

Wait... I don't live in Toronto, so I've never watched it, but does that mean CP24 is right wing in anyway?  Might explain why Rob Ford was elected.

Speaking of right wing networks, the countdown to Sun TV is approaching. The Sun keeps advertising it with "news" "articles".

[Hatman 🍁]

I saw that poll the other day in the paper. Needless to say, I was quite surprised. But, I mostly read the Sun (not out of choice, usually), and it tries to avoid anything that would support anybody but the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Have any polls asked for the second choice of voters?  I'd be interested in seeing how NDP, Green and Bloc Q voters would go.  My guess is NDP and Green would go 80-20 for Liberals over Conservatives, and Bloc Q a little less pro Grits.  I realize this is a totally theoretical issue, but with AV possibly coming into force in the UK, an interesting question nonetheless.

Yes, most pollsters do this.

Conservatives don't really like the idea of having a 2nd option, but many would vote Liberal. The other parties (Greens, Libs, Bloc) usually second preference the NDP, while NDPers tend to second preferences the  Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. Well, if the sign war is any indication in my riding, Paul Dewar will win. He's got maybe 80% of the signs on residential property in my neighbourhood. Albeit, I live in an NDP-friendly part of the riding. 10% of the signs are Liberal, and there's a few Greens and Tory signs.

Meanwhile in Ottawa South, I've only seen Liberal signs there on residential property, but I know we have signs up, because I'm working on the campaign (from a distance). Our signs have Arabic on them

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

Outremont: NDP 47%, Lib 27%, BQ 14%, Con 7%, Green 5%

Excellent

[Hatman 🍁]

What sort of Arabs are there in Ottawa South?

Lebanese, mostly. And, they've been here for a while. Think Paul Anka

[Hatman 🍁]

low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Could be some BQ voters are turning to the NDP. Or they're just not going to vote.

low BQ numbers means it'll be easier for the Tories to get a majority. They're already in majority territory.

It wouldn't be the Liberals getting the boost in seats first (how quickly do the Tories begin to win seats on a swing away from BQ)? Or is that irrelevant as both parties would gain seats to some degree by a swing away from BQ...and with the Tories closer to the post...bam.

Don't know... but my thought would be that it probably benefits the Liberals/NDP in Montreal, and the Tories in rural Quebec, and possibly Quebec City? I know the whole hockey arena thing there, but last election the Bloc picked up that seat of the Tories (I forget the seat, but I think it had Herbert in the name? It was Luc Harvey's seat, the northeastern corner of the city) - but that wasn't because the Bloc picked up votes, it was because the federalist vote split and the Tories lost enough votes to the Liberals to end up in second place behind the Bloc. If the Bloc loses enough votes, it could be a potential Tory gain, even if those votes flow predominantly to the Liberals. No doubt there are a plethora of seats that defy my generalisation, but that's how I see it. I'm sure MaxQue and others will be able to point out the probably numerous holes in my logic.

Louis-Hebert (avec un accent) is what you're thinking of. A.K.A, Quebec West.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've not seen any knock out punches / debate home runs

A few things from Jack Layton, but of course that doesn't count.

[Hatman 🍁]

Or you can use mine:

[Hatman 🍁]

Explain your map. Your predictions?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.