Landrieu likely to seek 4th term

[Miles]

This is kinda looking ahead, but I stumbled upon upon this when I was on Mary Landrieu's website yesterday and it seemed worth sharing:

http://www.marylandrieu.com/news/articles?id=0372

"I have served happily for 14 years and intend to serve another term or two should that be the people's wish"

I'm personally glad that she isn't going pull an Evan Bayh.

I hope LA 2014 doesn't turn into AR 2010 though...

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Best chance of holding the seat.

Plus, she's more liberal than she presumably should be for her seat, which I like.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Landrieu has had a pretty charmed political life, but I doubt her luck is going to give her another term.

[Heimdal]

I assume the Republican bench in Louisiana is pretty deep, so they will most likely be able to find a decent candidate.
I think the election will be a interesting indicator as to what is left of the ancestral Democratic vote in Louisiana.

It is incredible how fast things change. Today it is amost a bit quaint that the Democrats have a US Senate seat in Louisiana at all. But just a decade or two ago that was the natural order of things.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I assume the Republican bench in Louisiana is pretty deep, so they will most likely be able to find a decent candidate.

You'd think, but considering the last two challengers were John N. Kennedy and Suzanne Haik Terrell... Not that that will probably matter this time around.

[Frodo]

I wonder whether Governor Jindal (by 2014 more than halfway through his second term) would run against Senator Landrieu, and if so, whether he would be the one Republican who could unseat her. 

[Joe Biden 2020]

Finally! Some good news! I think she can win, too.  Of course, 2014 is still 3 years away and a lot can change, including trying to figure out what's going to happen in that little shack at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

[Bacon King]

Assuming Obama wins reelection, I bet Jindal will be too busy eying the White House to run for this seat.

Don't underestimate Landrieu, though. Plenty of Louisianans showing up to vote against Obama also happily voted for Landrieu.

St. Bernard: Obama 25%, Landrieu 58%
Cameron: Obama 16%, Landrieu 50%
Lafourche: Obama 25%, Landrieu 49%
Jefferson: Obama 36%, Landrieu 52%
Terrebonne: Obama 28%, Landrieu 48%

etc, etc, you get the point. She overperformed Obama by 12% statewide. She outperformed pretty much every other Democrat on the ballot, even.

Not saying she will be reelected, I have no idea what the political landscape of Louisiana will be three years from now, but considering she held on in an environment that bad I don't think Louisiana will be jumping to ditch her.

[RogueBeaver]

The state is rapidly reddening before her eyes and there are 3 candidates to take her out: Landry, Dardenne and Scalise. I believe Scalise would be the best candidate. It seems far more likely that Dardenne and Kennedy will duke it out (based on current events, I'd say Kennedy is more likely to get Jindal's nod) for the Governor's Mansion while Jindal pursues a presidential campaign.

[DrScholl]

It's 3 years out, it's more than a bit premature to declare her defeated, but everyone has their opinions. The GOP thought they were going to beat her in 2002 and we know how that turned out.

[Miles]

Don't underestimate Landrieu, though. Plenty of Louisianans showing up to vote against Obama also happily voted for Landrieu.

I agree. My family is very conservative, but most of them cross their ballots for Landrieu.

Landrieu is best on local issues; she's the Chairman of the Small Business Committee, which is a huge asset. She's broken with Obama on offshore drilling and coastal issues, which should help her.

The size of the GOP does worry me though. Scalise, Kennedy and Dardenne could be real threats. I don't see Jindal as a Senator...

She'll need to emphasize local issues; hopefully, the healthcare bill won't be as toxic in 2014.

[Frodo]

It's 3 years out, it's more than a bit premature to declare her defeated, but everyone has their opinions. The GOP thought they were going to beat her in 2002 and we know how that turned out.

That mid-term however was during a Republican presidency and Louisiana was still a marginally Democratic state (at least compared to where it is now). A totally different context.  If President Obama wins a second term, Mary would likely be in dire straits in the 2014 midterms particularly as Louisiana completes its realignment to the GOP at all levels of government.  I doubt she will survive politically.    

[Miles]

Don't underestimate Landrieu, though. Plenty of Louisianans showing up to vote against Obama also happily voted for Landrieu.

I agree. My family is very conservative, but most of them cross their ballots for Landrieu.

Landrieu is best on local issues; she's the Chairman of the Small Business Committee, which is a huge asset. She's broken with Obama on offshore drilling and coastal issues, which should help her.

The size of the GOP does worry me though. Scalise, Kennedy and Dardenne could be real threats. I don't see Jindal as a Senator...

She'll need to emphasize local issues; hopefully, the healthcare bill won't be as toxic in 2014.

[feeblepizza]

Does she think she'll win?

[Brittain33]

I have this vague feeling that Landrieu has a Harry Reid-like ability to destroy her enemies or keep them from running, but that may be wishful thinking. Can't disagree that running for reelection in an Obama midterm election is likely to end her career.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I agree with Dr.Scholl a little earlier that it's premature to call her defeated, but it's also premature to call her a shoo-in.  We have 3 years, and Louisiana has two big election years ahead.  2011 Louisiana will be deciding if Jindal should stay or should he go and, then of course, 2012 they will join the nation in deciding if Obama should stay or go.

[cinyc]

Does she think she'll win?

I'm sure she thinks she can win, and I wouldn't rule that out.  If not a Democrat named  Landrieu, then who is Louisiana Democrats' best shot, really?  The name is golden in Louisiana.  I don't know if it's voodoo or what, but never count out a Landrieu in a Louisiana election.

[freepcrusher]

is she in the same situation as Vance Hartke 30 years ago where he basically won three terms out of pure luck and how his luck eventually ran out?

[Bacon King]

is she in the same situation as Vance Hartke 30 years ago where he basically won three terms out of pure luck and how his luck eventually ran out?

No, not at all. Her first term victory in 1996 was pretty lucky, yeah: second place in the first round, and first place by <5,000 votes in the runoff. In 2002 though she almost even avoided the runoff and in 2008 her victory was never really in serious doubt either.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

She'll handily win.  Obama will be no factor.

[Badger]

She'll handily win.  Obama will be no factor.

I wish I were as confident as you, Gramps. I'm sure Obama will still be a factor, though probably not to the same degree as last year.

Kennedy wound up coming surprisingly close in 08. There are few states where the GOP wave is riding higher than LA (other than maybe across the river in MS). It'll make things tough, but you can't count her out by any stretch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She'll handily win.  Obama will be no factor.

SD and LA are clearly the Dems most vulnerable seats and the election outcome in 2012 is truely not assured. She is seen as a fiscally conservative Democrat, but like Blanche Lincoln she can be more liberal than her more popular counterpart Breaux who should be in this seat other than her. Landrieu and Johnson are very vulnerable.

[Miles]

She'll handily win.  Obama will be no factor.

SD and LA are clearly the Dems most vulnerable seats and the election outcome in 2012 is truely not assured. She is seen as a fiscally conservative Democrat, but like Blanche Lincoln she can be more liberal than her more popular counterpart Breaux who should be in this seat other than her. Landrieu and Johnson are very vulnerable.

If you had to ask yourself which one would survive...Landrieu or Johnson...which would it be? If one was going to survive and one would not...who would it be?

I don't think SD will flip.

Johnson will probably retire and be replaced by Herseth-Sandlin. She's still popular.

[Bacon King]

She'll handily win.  Obama will be no factor.

SD and LA are clearly the Dems most vulnerable seats and the election outcome in 2012 is truely not assured. She is seen as a fiscally conservative Democrat, but like Blanche Lincoln she can be more liberal than her more popular counterpart Breaux who should be in this seat other than her. Landrieu and Johnson are very vulnerable.

If you had to ask yourself which one would survive...Landrieu or Johnson...which would it be? If one was going to survive and one would not...who would it be?

I don't think SD will flip.

Johnson will probably retire and be replaced by Herseth-Sandlin. She's still popular.

If Johnson retires, the seat will almost certainly be going Republican. Just look at the GOP bench in South Dakota:

• Governor Daugaard; served two terms as Lt. Gov and will have served a full term as Governor by the election. His ticket (w/ Lt. Gov Michels) was elected with 62% last year.
• Lt. Gov. Matt Michels, who was previously Speaker of the SD House.
• Rep. Kristi Noem, who beat Herseth-Sandlin last year; will have served two terms in US House by 2014.
• Secretary of State Jason Gant, elected in 2010 with 15 points over Democratic opponent. Businessman with self-funding ability.
• Attorney General Marty Jackley, appointed in 2009 and elected to a full term w/ 67% of the vote.
• any of the other four Republican statewide officeholders, who each won with >60% of the vote.

[Miles]

I wouldn't write off Herseth-Sandlin...