Florida Legislature Redistricting (Part 1: State Senate)

[Mississippi Political Freak]

While the focus here right now would be undoubtedly about congressional redistricting, I believe state legislatures will be no less important for our country's future directions, as states are frequently called the laboratories for the nation's policy, and state legislators can frequently become future congresspeople.  Therefore, any thoughtful or extreme policies currently being proposed in state legislatures stand a good chance of becoming part of our national debate.

That being said, I am posting a series of Florida state legislative redistricting maps.  The first part will be the Florida State Senate.  My aim is to redistrict all 40 seats under the spirits of Florida's Constitutional Amendment 5 that governs state legislative districts.  I try to make districts as compact as possible  (Exceptions will be noted under individual districts), and cause as few county-splitting as possible.  All districts have population deviation of less than 1% from 470,013 people per district.  I will also try to restore some partisan balance in a presidential swing state, where the GOP now has 28-12 majority  (I admit this aim will be difficult given the way the Dems in this state are distributed).

Here are my maps:

Statewide overview


 
The Panhandle


North Central Florida

SD-2 (Sen. Greg Evers, R-Baker, Green)

This districts covers all of Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties, as well as a coastal slice of Okaloosa County.  Still very safe for Evers and any Republicans.


SD-4 (Sen. Don Gaetz, R-Destin, Red)

All of Walton, Holmes (from SD-2), Washington (from SD-2) and Bay (from SD-6) Counties are in this district; as are most of Okaloosa and Jackson (from SD-6) Counties.  Should be very safe for Gaetz and any Republicans.

SD-3 (Sen. Charlie Dean, R-Inverness, Purple)

Unites Levy County (with parts from SD-14), takes 5 conservative counties near Tallahassee (Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Liberty and Wakulla) from SD-6 and much of non-Gainesville portions of Alachua County and Gilchrist County from SD-14.  Retains parts of Columbia, Hamilton. Jefferson, and Madison counties, and all of Dixie, Lafayette, Suwannee and Taylor counties.  

The ideal solution is for Dean and Sen. Steve Oelrich (SD-14, R-Gainesville) to switch districts, as Dean's political base of Citrus County is totally within my SD-14, while Oelrich can rely the rural Alachua county portion in this iteration SD-3 as his base.  In an open-seat situation, this might be remotely competitive for a conservative Democrat like former State Reps. Dwight Stansel (from Suwanee County) and Debbie Boyd (from rural Alachua County) or current State Rep. Leonard Bembry (from Madison County).  Former State Rep. Will Kenderick from Franklin County is a possible GOP open-seat candidate, although the primary voters might not trust a party-switcher like Kenderick (He only switched to the GOP during his final term, apparently to avoid political consequences, as his house district, HD-10 retains some conservative Democratic heritage at local offices, just like much of SD-3 in this form)

SD-6 (Sen. Bill Montford, D-Tallahassee, Teal)

Has 5 conservative counties moved to SD-3 (see above) and takes all of Gadsden and Leon counties.  It is now connected to Gainesville through a connector of Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton and Columbia counties.  Should be safe for Dems, as it is nearly 30% black and contains the liberal anchors of Tallahassee and Gainesville; although Montford might be susceptible from a primary challenge by a Gainesville candidate.  On the up side, Gainesville voters (especially the University of Florida students and faculties) may find Montford or most Dems as better ideological fit than Oelrich.

SD-14 (Sen. Steve Oelrich, R-Inverness, Olive)

This districts now takes most of Marion County (previously split 4-way between SD's 3, 7, 14 and 20) and all of Citrus County (from SD's 3 and 11), plus a western portion of Sumter County.  Should be much more Republican than the previous incarnation (competitive for a moderate Dem -though not a Gainesville liberal- due to the inclusion of Alachua County.  In fact, the current chair of Florida's Dems. Rod Smith is a one-time Senator from SD-14).  While its a nice territory for Sen. Dean to run, its also a fertile ground for State Rep. Dennis Baxley (HD-24, R-Ocala) should he seek promotion as it has his political base of Marion County as well.  (He had once sought nomination to the current SD-3, losing to Dean)

SD-20 (Sen. Alan Hays, R-Umatilla, Cream)

It now contains the entire Lake County, plus the eastern portion of Sumter County containing the Villages and the Brooksville area portion of Hernando County.  Should be safe for Hays and any Republicans.

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Now to the Jacksonville area and the First Coast (NE Florida)

Jacksonville area


NE Florida


SD-1 (OPEN, Blue)

Sen. Tony Hill (D-Jacksonville) will be term-limited in 2012, and I take the opportunity to redraw SD-1 to become totally within Duval County.  It is now 43% black and takes in most black neighborhoods in Jacksonville.  Should be amendable to the current Democratic mayoral candidate Alvin Brown should he comes up short in the May runoff (seems likely) or other moderate Dems like the current At-Large City Councilman John Crescimbeni.  Whether it is a friendly territory for former State Reps. Terry Fields or Audrey Gibson (both Jacksonville Dems) who are running for the open seat in its current form is more open to question, as African American politicians from inner-city Jacksonville tend to be firebrand liberals, and Jacksonville is a racially polarized city.  Winning this district requires candidates to win substantial cross-over votes outside his/her own race.  As a result, this district is not out of reach for moderate Republicans like former mayoral candidate Audrey Moran.

SD-5 (OPEN, Yellow)

Sen. Stephen Wise (R-Jacksonville) will also be term-limited in 2012.  In this new form, SD-5 takes Bradford and Union counties from SD-14 and Baker County from SD-3 (which makes more geographical sense, as Baker County is an emerging bedroom community for the Jacksonville area).  It also unites Nassau County, the political base of the only active open-seat candidate, former State Rep. Aaron Bean (R-Fernandina Beach) with parts from SD-8, Clay County (formerly split between SD's 5 and 7) and Putnam County (formerly split between SD's 1 and 7).  It also takes in Jacksonville's beaches and the white portions of the Northside and Westside, and removed from St. Johns County (now split between SD's 7 and 8, formerly in SD's 1, 5 and 8).  It is safe territory for Bean or any Republicans.

SD-8 (Sen. John Thrasher, R-St. Augustine, Lavender)

This district is contracted to parts of just two counties: Duval and St. Johns.  Should be safe for any Republicans, although Thrasher may be vulnerable to a primary challenge from a Southside Jacksonville Republican.

SD-7 (OPEN, Apple Green)

This is the 3rd open seat in this area for the 2012 cycle, as Sen. Evelyn Lynn (R-Ormond Beach) is also term-limited.  In this incarnation, it takes in much of the inland portions of St. Johns county as well as its southeast coast, all of Flagler County (previously in SD's 1 and 8) and most of Volusia County (formerly split between SD's 1, 7, 8 and 20, except the DeLand and Deltona areas, as they are bedroom communities for the Orlando area and has little in common with rest of Volusia).  It also takes in small chunk of Brevard County arounf the county seat of Titusville currently in SD-24 for population purposes.  It remains a friendly seat for State Rep. Dorothy Hukill (R-Port Orange) to run in, as it still contains her political base in SE Volusia County.  Overall, it is a R-leaning swing seat, as the portions in Volusia and Flagler counties should be competitive for a right Democrat.

[jimrtex]

While the focus here right now would be undoubtedly about congressional redistricting, I believe state legislatures will be no less important for our country's future directions, as states are frequently called the laboratories for the nation's policy, and state legislators can frequently become future congresspeople.  Therefore, any thoughtful or extreme policies currently being proposed in state legislatures stand a good chance of becoming part of our national debate.

That being said, I am posting a series of Florida state legislative redistricting maps.  The first part will be the Florida State Senate.  My aim is to redistrict all 40 seats under the spirits of Florida's Constitutional Amendment 5 that governs state legislative districts.  I try to make districts as compact as possible  (Exceptions will be noted under individual districts), and cause as few county-splitting as possible.  All districts have population deviation of less than 1% from 470,013 people per district.  I will also try to restore some partisan balance in a presidential swing state, where the GOP now has 28-12 majority  (I admit this aim will be difficult given the way the Dems in this state are distributed).

The Florida legislature has a system where you can draw proposed plans and submit them to the legislature.

Also it is unconstitutional under the new redistricting provisions to draw a map with the intent to favor or disfavor an incumbent or a political party.  It is apparently OK to favor or disfavor a non-incumbent, but this would probably only come into play when drawing two new congressional districts, or perhaps when drawing senate districts.

[Mississippi Political Freak]

The Florida legislature has a system where you can draw proposed plans and submit them to the legislature.

Also it is unconstitutional under the new redistricting provisions to draw a map with the intent to favor or disfavor an incumbent or a political party.  It is apparently OK to favor or disfavor a non-incumbent, but this would probably only come into play when drawing two new congressional districts, or perhaps when drawing senate districts.

Would you mind pointing out which of the district(s) I've drawn so far is/are potentially unconstitutional, and continue to give feedbacks as I proceed further along the series, eventually covering the State House of Representatives?  Thanks!

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Now to the swingy I-4 Corridor!

Orlando Area


SD-9 (Sen. Andy Gardiner, R-Orlando, Cyan)

It partakes the southeast corner of Seminole County (including the cities of Altamonte Springs and Cassleberry) and the Northwestern corner of Orange County spanning from Apopka to Winter Park.  Should be still fine for the non-controversial Gardiner, but the minority voting population of close to 40% makes this district worths watching down the road, or sooner if the Dems can nominate a "big-tent" candidate capable of building a coalition between blacks, Hispanics and moderate-to-liberal whites in an open-seat situation.

SD-19 (OPEN, light olive)

Sen. Gary Siplin  (D-Orlando) is yet another victim of term limits in 2012.  In this incarnation, SD-19 will be entirely within Orange County and partakes downtown Orlando, parts of Ocoee and Winter Garden, as well as the tourist heart of the Orlando area.  It's voting age population is only 48% white, making the coalition mentioned in SD-9 a bit easier to form due to the white liberals in downtown Orlando.  While I doubt State Rep. Geraldine Thompson (HD-39, D-Orlando) is the ideal candidate to build such a coalition (she hails from a black-majority HD), another State Representative, Scott Randolph (HD-36, also D-Orlando) is a way better candidate for the purpose, as he currently represents a fairly diverse district that shares parts of this SD-19.

SD-22 (Sen. David Simmons, R-Altamonte Springs, Brownish Pink)

While Simmon's home of Altamonte Springs is drawn out of the district for population and compactness purposes, he is still fine in this heavily white and suburban form of SD-22, as it takes most of Seminole County from Oviedo up to Sanford; and also the Southwestern Volusia bedroom communities (for metro Orlando) of DeBary and Deltona.  DeLand, the county seat is also here.

SD-24 (OPEN, Deep Violet)

This is a by-product of my ability to draw a new SD-26 entirely in Brevard County due to Senate President Mike Haridopolos' upcoming term limit and also his highly probable US Senate candidacy.  The new SD-24 is removed from Brevard County and anchored at increasingly Hispanic parts of East-Central and South-Central Orange County.  It also extends into heavily Hispanic portions of Osceola County (Kissimmee and environs).  It would usually vote Democratic, and is an ideal ground for State Rep. Darren Soto (HD-49, D-Orlando) to seek promotion.  It is 45% Hispanic in population and has a slight plurality of Hispanics among the voting age population.

It may be susceptible to the effect of ethnicity-based voting though, as Orlando-area Hispanics are mostly Puerto Ricans, and will vote for one of their own from either party, creating an opening for Soto's predecessor, former State Rep. & current Osceola County Commissioner John "Q" Quinones (R-Kissimmee).  This effect was in fact proved in Quinones' initial race for HD-49, during which he beat a Dominican Democrat in a Democratic-tilting district by all accounts.

The political disposition for my districts so far:

6 Safe GOP: (SD's 2,4,5,8,20,22)
2 Likely GOP: (SD's 3 and 14)
2 Lean GOP: (SD's 7 and 9)
1 Toss-up/Tilt Dem: (SD-1)
1 Lean Dem: (SD-24)
1 Likely Dem: (SD-19)
1 Safe Dem: (SD-6)

Assuming incumbent party holds, this would produce a net gain of 1 seat for the Dems.  However, districts described later would probably mean this new map is a wash for the current GOP majority.  A caveat is that several districts mentioned so far and later on would be swing districts down the road, either due to demographic changes or the appearance of an unsually strong candidate from the opposite party.  This is the case with SD-3 (only with a rural, conservative Dem), SD-7 (with a Volusia County Dem), SD-9 (due to substantial minority population) and SD-24 (only with a Hispanic GOP candidate)

[jimrtex]

The Florida legislature has a system where you can draw proposed plans and submit them to the legislature.

Also it is unconstitutional under the new redistricting provisions to draw a map with the intent to favor or disfavor an incumbent or a political party.  It is apparently OK to favor or disfavor a non-incumbent, but this would probably only come into play when drawing two new congressional districts, or perhaps when drawing senate districts.

Would you mind pointing out which of the district(s) I've drawn so far is/are potentially unconstitutional, and continue to give feedbacks as I proceed further along the series, eventually covering the State House of Representatives?  Thanks!

This is the text of the amendment for the legislature, the congressional version is the same but in a different section of the constitution.

"Legislative districts or districting plans may not be drawn to favor or disfavor an incumbent or political party.  Districts shall not be drawn to deny racial or language minorities the equal opportunity to participate in the political process and elect representatives of their choice. Districts must be contiguous. Unless otherwise required, districts must be compact, as equal in population as feasible, and where feasible must make use of existing city, county and geographical boundaries."

It is a lawyer's dream.  It is not the district or plan that is a violation, but rather the motivation behind the drawing of it.  It is OK for a district to be favorable or unfavorable to  a political party or incumbent.  But it goes into the intent of the line drawer.  Since you have analyzed the political effect of your plan it is obvious that (1) your plan was drawn to favor or disfavor particular incumbents and political parties; and (2) simultaneously intended not to favor any incumbent or political party.  Which interpretation is correct depends on who hired the lawyer, and whether they like your plan or not.

[Bacon King]

So really, the FL law doesn't prevent partisan gerrymandering, it just makes the map-drawers come up with some other excuse?

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Onto the rest of the I-4 Corridor!

Brevard, Osceola and Polk Counties


SD-26 (OPEN, Pale Lavender)

Due to Senate President Mike Haridopolos' term limit, this seat will be opened up, and I took my opportunity to redraw it to become a Brevard County-only district (removed from Indian River, Osceola and St. Lucie counties).  It takes much of the county except its Southeastern corner anchored by Palm Bay.  Should be safe for conservative but low-key Sen. Thad Altman (R-Melbourne) or any other Republicans.

SD-28 (Sen. Joe Negron, R-Stuart, Very Pale Pink)

To be discussed under the Treasure Coast & Heartlands section, as bulk of this district is in Indian River and St. Lucie counties.

SD-15 (OPEN, Pale Orange)

SD-15's current incumbent Sen. Paula Dockery (R-Lakeland) will be term-limited in 2012, and State Rep. Kelli Stargel (HD-64, also R-Lakeland) is already actively seeking the GOP nomination to this open seat.  In my incarnation, this seats takes the rural and whiter portions of eastern Orange County, together with the bulk of Osceola County and the eastern two-thirds of Polk County, but removed from Hernando, Lake and Sumter counties.  Should be fine for Stargel (if she's willing to move from Lakeland, which is in my SD-10) or former Polk County Commissioner Jack Meyers, the other Republican actively campaigning for the seat, although the growth in the area's Hispanic population could make elections in this district more interesting towards the end of the decade.  (It is currently about 21% Hispanic, and still 64% whilte in terms of voting age population).  I am not sure if former Polk County Commissioner Jean Reed or Polk County's Supervisor of Elections, and former 12th Congressional District candidate Lori Edwards can make it a race for the Dems if they run, though.

Tampa Bay Area


SD-13 (OPEN, Light Pink)

Moderate (especially on social issues) incumbent Sen. Dennis Jones (R-Seminole) will be term-limited in 2012.  There are already two Pinellas County Republicans (former State Rep. Leslie Waters, HD-51, R-Seminole and State Rep. James Frishe, HD-54, R-St. Petersburg) actively campaigning for the seat.  In this iteration, it remains a Pinellas-only seat, covering the southern half of the county, including the black and white liberal areas of St. Petersburg.  It should be  one of the most competitive State Senate seats in the state under an open-seat scenario, as it overlaps with much of the marginal 10th Congressional District,  and the  race could become interesting if State Rep. Rick Kriseman (HD-53, D-St. Petersburg)  or his HD-53 predecessor, former Democratic State Sen. Charlie Justice from SD-16 jumps into it.

SD-16 (Sen. Jack Latvala, R-St. Petersburg) Deep Apple Green

As the more Republican of the two Pinellas County-based SD's, it covers the northern half of the county from Largo and Clearwater upwards.  A small northwestern slice of Hillsborough County is also attached to it.  Should be fine for Latvala, although the race here could become interesting if former Democratic State Sen. Charlie Justice, Latvala's predecessor wants to return to his old seat; or maybe if former Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth jumps into the race.

SD-11 (OPEN, Light Green)

Sen. Mike Fasano (R-New Port Richey) will be term-limited in 2012, and State Rep. John Legg (HD-46, R-Port Richey) is already running for the open seat.  My SD-11 covers the western three-quarters of Pasco County and the Spring Hill area of Hernando County  (removed from Citrus and Pinellas counties).  As more conservative retirees migrate to this area, this District should be fine for Legg or any other Republicans, although the Dems do have a few former elected officials who could make the race interesting in former Pasco County Commissioner Michael Cox, former Hernando County Commissioners Diane Rowden (who lost the race for HD-44 last year), and Chris Kingsley.  

I just wonder if the Tax Collectors of Pasco and Hernando counties, Mike Olson and Juanita Sikes respectively can make this a race to watch for the Dems as well, as they are among the last Democratic county-wide officials in these two counties.  (Hernando County's Supervisor of Elections, Annie Williams would be at a severe disadvantage if she ever runs, in this 83% white district.)

SD-18 (Sen. Arthenia Joyner, D-Tampa, Light Yellow)

This District is now confined to Hillsborough County (removed from Pinellas and Manatee counties), and is no longer majority black.  It remains minority-majority in its voting age population (21% black and almost 30% Hispanic, and only 44% white).  It partakes downtown Tampa, black areas of East Tampa and Hispanic areas of West Tampa.  Should be fine for Joyner, although she may be vulnerable to a white or Hispanic primary challanger.  Two former holders of the State House of Representative's HD-58, Bob "Coach" Henriquez and Michael Scionti should be potent candidates if they want to return to Florida's state legislature.

SD-12 (Sen. Jim Norman, R-Tampa, Sky Blue)

This district takes in much of Tampa's northern suburbs, as well as Brandon and environs to the east (removed from Pasco County).  Should be safe for Norman, although at more than 1/3 minority, this district may be more interesting towards the end of the decade.

SD-10 (Sen. Rhonda Storms, R-Brandon, Pink)

Storms, a strident social conservative, should still be safe in this form of SD-10 (unless State Rep. Kelli Stargel primaries her, since her Lakeland political base is also in this District), even though her home base of Brandon is drawn out of it for geographical coherence in my SD-12.  It now covers Lakeland, Bartow (the county seat) and environs in Polk County, the Plant City area in Hillsborough County and the established cities of Dade City and Zephyrhills in eastern Pasco County.

SD-21 (OPEN, Brick Red)

While it contains much of Southern Hillsborough County, it will be discussed under Southwest Florida section, as Manatee County seems to be its political powerhouse.

That said, the political disposition for this round of districts are as below:

3 Safe GOP: (SD's 10, 12 and 26)
2 Likely GOP: (SD's 11 and 15)
2 Lean GOP: (SD's 13 and 16)
1 Likely Dem: (SD-18)

[jimrtex]

So really, the FL law doesn't prevent partisan gerrymandering, it just makes the map-drawers come up with some other excuse?

The law merely requires several rounds of litigation until either it is thrown out for being vague, or legislators learn to rub their belly and pat their head while winking at the judge in a certain way.   Eventually the courts will tire of interpreting it.

[Mississippi Political Freak]

SW Florida



SD-21 (OPEN, Brick Red)

Sen. Mike Bennett (R-Bradenton), a social moderate, is yet another term-limited State Senator in 2012.  In this incarnation, the district is removed from Charlotte, DeSoto and Lee counties, but gained retiree-heavy southern suburbs (of Tampa) in Hillsborough County.  It now takes all of Manatee county and a portion in Sarasota County with about 3500 people.  Still friendly territory for former State Rep. Bill Galvano (HD-68, R-Bradenton), the only declared candidate so far, to run in.

SD-23 (Sen. Nancy Detert, R-Venice, Pale Sky Blue)

This district is now removed from Manatee County (the more conservative county in the Sarasota metro area) and takes the lion's share of Sarasota County, plus the portion of Charlotte County from Port Charlotte and west.  Still safe for Detert or any moderate Republicans, as Sarasota County is well known for its fiscally conservative but pro-environment brand of Country Club Republicanism.  The race could be interesting if the GOP candidate in a future open seat race is a hardcore conservative or if former State Rep. Keith Fitzgerald (HD-69, D-Sarasota) jumps into it, though.

SD-27 (Sen. Lizbeth Benacquisto, R-Wellington, Aqua)

The current SD-27 is a monstrous by-product of gerrymandering of neighboring districts.  To make it more compact, I have removed it from Glades, Hendry and Palm Beach counties altogether.  It now covers Charlotte County from Punta Gorda and east, as well as the northeastern urban core of Lee County (North Fort Myers, parts of Cape Coral and Fort Myers).  Unfortunately for Benacquisto, her Wellington home base is drawn out of this district in the process (now in my SD-30), making her even more vulnerale to a primary challenge from a Lee County candidate (Until last year, a Lee County candidate typical prevails in the GOP primary under the current lines).  In fact, term-limited State Rep. Trudi Williams (HD-75, R-Fort Myers) has already filed to run for the seat. 

On the up side for the GOP, this seat becomes way more Republican than the current one (about the only truly swingy State Senate district) due to the omission of the heavily Democratic Palm Beach County portion; home to both Benacquisto's predecessor, former Sen. Dave Aronberg (D-Greenacres) and last year's Democratic candidate, then-State Rep.Kevin Rader (HD-78, D-Delray Beach).

SD-37 (Sen. Garrett Richter, R-Naples, Baby Blue)

Territory-wise, it is not too far off from the current district; as it still covers parts of Lee and Collier counties.  Richter's political base of Naples and much of Collier County's population is here, as is much of coastal Lee County and the County's southern portion.  Safe for Richter or any Republicans.

Treasure Coast and the Heartlands



SD-17 (OPEN, Violet)

Sen. JD Alexander (R-Lake Wales) will be term limited in 2012.  In this incarnation, it replaces SD-27 as the most monstrous district in the State Senate, as I intend it to become a Heartland district.  It covers all of DeSoto (currently split with SD-21), Glades (currently split with SD-27), Hardee, Hendry (currently in SD's 27 and 39), Highlands, Martin (currently in SD-28) and Okeechobee (currently split with SD-28) counties.  It also take a coastal strip of St. Lucie County and the less-populated rural portion of Collier County (mainly from SD-39).  On the other hand, it is now removed from Polk County altogether.  Still a very friendly territory for term-limited State Rep. Denise Grimsley (HD-77, R-Sebring), the only declared open-seat candidate to run in.

SD-28 (Sen. Joe Negron, R-Stuart, Very Pale Pink)

As a result of my drawing of SD-26 as a Brevard County-only district, this district now takes the leftover southeastern Palm Bay and its environs in Brevard County, all of Indian River County and the lion's share of St. Lucie County (currently split with SD's 17, and 26).  As a result, it has to lose Martin County to my SD-17.  Should be fine for Negron if he is willing to move slightly over the county line to southern St. Lucie County. 

Under an open-seat scenario, Republicans are competitive with candidates from either of the three counties, while the Democrats would be competitive only with moderate candidates from St. Lucie County.  This possibly means St. Lucie County Sheriff Ken Mascara or one of the current/former St. Lucie County Commissioners would be way better suited for this capacity than former State Rep. Adam Fetterman (HD-81, D-Port St. Lucie) among the St. Lucie County Democrats I have in my mind

The political disposition for this round of districts are as below:

4 Safe GOP: (SD's 21, 23 and 27 and 37)
2 Likely GOP: (SD's 17 and 28)