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| | |-+  Could Romney win any New England states?
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Author Topic: Could Romney win any New England states?  (Read 1469 times)
Misoir
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« on: March 28, 2011, 11:57:41 am »
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Since Mitt Romney was the former governor of Massachusetts, a New England state, and is a moderate Republican who tends to stay away from many of the divisive social issues do you believe this will give him enough leverage to win more than just New Hampshire in New England? As all of us know these states used to be strong states for the Liberal-to-Moderate Republicans, arguably Romney is a Moderate, so is there any chance he could win enough Rockefeller Republican votes to tip a few states in his favor?
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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2011, 12:07:42 pm »
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Since Mitt Romney was the former governor of Massachusetts, a New England state, and is a moderate Republican

Which one Mitt Romney?
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« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2011, 12:20:53 pm »
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Outside shot at New Hampshire if its a 50/50 race or better for Mitt. I doubt even that, though.
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« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2011, 12:25:24 pm »
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Maybe 1994 Mitt Romney in 2000 (Had he been elected in 94). I could see him winning Maine and NH, and making Vermont competitive with Nader sucking away Gore votes. But the other versions of Mitt would have to fight just for NH
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« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2011, 01:26:31 pm »
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I think he'd have a good shot at NH and a very outside shot at Maine.

It would have to be a pretty big win for him to get Maine though.
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« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2011, 02:16:39 pm »
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*sigh* No.

He most definitely won't win Massachusetts.
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« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2011, 02:47:12 pm »
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The previous incarnation of Romney could have won New Hampshire, this version can't.
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2011, 02:53:25 pm »
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He'll certainly perform better in New England than most other GOP candidates, but I'd only give New Hampshire to him.
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« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2011, 03:43:33 pm »
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He's hardly that moderate now. At best, he would match Bush's 2004 numbers.
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« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2011, 03:51:49 pm »
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Romney would have a chance in New Hampshire. I can see him coming within single digits of Obama in Maine, but I doubt he could actually win there.
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« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2011, 05:02:30 pm »
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I give him an outside chance at NH if Obama screws the pooch and loses big.  In a 50-50 election, no, he doesn't carry a New England state.
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« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2011, 05:58:48 pm »
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Mitt Romney will win NH and make ME a toss-up! He will be the first R to win 1EV in ME since 1988!
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« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2011, 06:35:22 pm »
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This is one time where I fear the great Mikado is wrong. Tongue I think Romney can win NH in a 50-50 election. He could also win Maine but only at 53-47 or higher for him. ME and NH both gave the GOP strong results and thus it is feasible that a tied environment could produce a narrow win for Romney in NH and at a strong margin, ME. All the others are off limits except for CT in a very unrealistic 57-42 type landslide and thats a big if even then.

Romney's advantage is not so much that he is a moderate on the issues because he isn't and there isn't a such thing as a Moderate GOP nominee in the vain of McCain 2000 or Rudy. That's done. Boom Over!!! (to sound like Charlie Sheen Tongue) Romney's focus will be on non-social issues because he wants to de-emphasize his rather recent pro-life conversion, and his pro-family crusade in 2008. His advantage will be that his style on approaching them will be different then Huck or Cain or Rick and the Last Crusade.  

I think that it is a mistake to lump all social issues together and label them as divisive and demand they be ignored. There are some serious social problems in this country that need addressing. If you read his book, which I am currently in the process of doing, he approaches  the out of wedlock birth rate from a practical standpoint of its effect on education and he even states the need to ensure that we don't appear to be judgemental of single parents, while working to decrease this trend in the future. It's this nuance that makes social conservatism more palatable to many people who would be turned off by the moralistic crusading.  

Rockefeller Republicans weren't just social liberals. They were also very much in favor of the New Deal, welfare state, high taxation, and big gov't. This canard irritates me to no end. The social issues of abortion, gays etc, didn't heat up in the modern era until the mid 1970's. The 1964 primary was waged primarily on a big gov't versus less gov't paradigm. If it was all about social issues then Mike Castle would be a Senator today because 2010 would have been the best year to be a Moderate Republican since economics dominated. It turned out to be the worst. His problem was that when the issues turned to ones of economic and the size of gov't, his record wasn't solid there either and hence he lost because O'Donnell took advantage of his weaknesses, and he wasn't prepared to respond. I guess its like the word "neocon" has been expropriated by libertarians and liberals, so too has the term "Rockefeller Republican".
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« Reply #13 on: March 28, 2011, 06:44:23 pm »
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It depends....

I think NH is a possible, but in order to be the Rep that the NE could support, he would doom himself everywhere else.
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« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2011, 08:40:43 pm »
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He could potentially win NH.
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« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2011, 01:37:22 pm »
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Maine is not going to follow NH into Romney's camp in 2012 if he wins it, not as 4 EVs or as 1 EV.

He lives in New Hampshire so anything's possible for him even if he has remade himself into Haley Barbour in order to win the primaries.
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« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2011, 03:15:53 pm »
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New Hampshire is posible. If he's really lucky he could get an electoral vote from Maine. The only way he'd come close or win MA though is if Scott Brown gets re-elected by 10 points ish.

But he will preform decent as a republican in New England.
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« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2011, 04:45:39 pm »
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New Hampshire is posible. If he's really lucky he could get an electoral vote from Maine. The only way he'd come close or win MA though is if Scott Brown gets re-elected by 10 points ish.

But he will preform decent as a republican in New England.

     I sort of doubt Romney's fate in MA would be tied to Scott Brown's fate in any meaningful way. Note that Scott Brown would actually be spending tons of money in MA, whereas Mitt Romney, if he has any sense, would not be spending anything there.
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« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2011, 05:57:57 pm »
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Maybe New Hampshire....

..but again, this is Mitt Romney we're talking about.
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« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2011, 05:48:09 pm »
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Since Mitt Romney was the former governor of Massachusetts, a New England state, and is a moderate Republican who tends to stay away from many of the divisive social issues do you believe this will give him enough leverage to win more than just New Hampshire in New England? As all of us know these states used to be strong states for the Liberal-to-Moderate Republicans, arguably Romney is a Moderate, so is there any chance he could win enough Rockefeller Republican votes to tip a few states in his favor?

No.
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« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2011, 06:02:45 pm »
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New Hampshire
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2011, 09:50:41 pm »
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What about CT?

Bush came within striking distance of it in '04...
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2011, 11:36:36 pm »
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What about CT?

Bush came within striking distance of it in '04...

There was swing towards Bush in NY, NJ, CT - which many commentators put down to a post-9/11 surge in Bush's favour.
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« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2011, 11:48:11 pm »
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It would take a 16 to 20 point Romney landslide nationwide to win CT by a mere handfull of points.
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« Reply #24 on: March 31, 2011, 06:02:33 am »
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What about CT?

Bush came within striking distance of it in '04...

A ten-point loss is "striking distance"? By that argument Kerry came within striking distance of winning Arizona.
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