NV-Mellman Group: Berkley's (D) internal puts her 4 points ahead of Heller (R)

[Verily]

It looks like Berkley will run a competetive campaign afterall.

     Maybe, maybe not. You're not going to figure that out from an internal out of her campaign.

Truth. Even comparisons to established pollsters don't help as Nevada tends to poll very wackily (mostly to the benefit of Republicans in recent memory, but that need not continue, and I'm not sure why Democrats have tended to underpoll in NV).

[Verily]

(mostly to the benefit of Republicans in recent memory, but that need not continue, and I'm not sure why Democrats have tended to underpoll in NV).

Latinos that speak mainly Spanish, vote Democratic but don't answer phone polls are probably underrepresented, or they just don't give their preferences to strangers on the phone. Probably similar to why Hanabusa underpolled so much in the special.

This is a neat and typical explanation, but it doesn't sit well with me as Democrats tend not to underpoll (at the least, not as severely) in Texas, California, New Mexico and Arizona. Also not sure why you would say that about Hanabusa; there may be a lot of immigrants in Hawaii, but they all speak English. (There could be greater discomfort with/suspicion of pollsters among
Asian immigrants, or perhaps Native Hawaiians, though.)