When do you expect Demographic trends to change again?
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  When do you expect Demographic trends to change again?
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Author Topic: When do you expect Demographic trends to change again?  (Read 2318 times)
redcommander
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« on: March 31, 2011, 07:08:54 PM »
« edited: March 31, 2011, 07:13:29 PM by redcommander »

A lot of population growth the last decade was the result larger number of Asians and Hispanics in the nation. When do you think we will see another demographic shift in the country?
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2011, 07:20:16 PM »

I think that the current trends will continue for another few decades, but afterward I think that we will start to see some more immigration from India, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East, which will start to change the demographics.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2011, 12:12:25 AM »

I'd say within 20 years, immigration from Latin America will plummet as fast declining birth rates there keep young people home to work.  The same goes for southeast and south-Asia.

The next big immigrant push will likely come from sub-saharan Africa and the Middle East.. the last two regions with high fertility rates.  Once those areas see their fertility rates fall (as they certainly will), immigration will slow markedly and the U.S. population will level off and eventually begin a slow fall.
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Frodo
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2011, 02:47:36 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2011, 08:46:07 PM by Frodo »

I'd say within 20 years, immigration from Latin America will plummet as fast declining birth rates there keep young people home to work.  The same goes for southeast and south-Asia.

The next big immigrant push will likely come from sub-saharan Africa and the Middle East.. the last two regions with high fertility rates.  Once those areas see their fertility rates fall (as they certainly will), immigration will slow markedly and the U.S. population will level off and eventually begin a slow fall.

By the time this next (and last) great wave of immigrants reaches its zenith here, how high do you think the population will be in the United States, and what proportion of that population will be composed primarily of first-generation immigrants?  For comparison's sake, in 1910 there were around 13.5 million immigrants mostly from southern and eastern Europe out of a total population of over 92 million -roughly 1 out of every 7 Americans was a first-born immigrant.

Do you think we will see something similar within the next few decades?  
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Verily
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2011, 03:22:53 PM »

It's certainly fairly close right now (and remember that the dip in the mid-20th century is more due to immigration quotas than any natural contraction in immigration). Don't think we'll quite reach it, though, as we're starting from a much higher base population.


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