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Author Topic: FL-22/Viewpoint Florida (R): Rep. West (R) leads Frankel (D) by 15  (Read 1472 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 02, 2011, 01:12:51 am »

Florida’s 22nd Congressional District is one of the Sunshine State’s most competitive seats in the US House of Representatives. Last November, conservative firebrand and retired Army Lt. Col. Allen West defeated incumbent Democrat Ron Klein in that district, and earned a reputation as a fierce legislator and public speaker.

As a result, West is now a top target of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). And this week, outgoing West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel announced that she would challenge Congressman West for his seat in 2012.

Is Frankel’s candidacy a recruiting coup for the DCCC? Has Congressman West’s aggressive style turned off voters in this affluent beachside district?

Viewpoint Florida wanted to know the answers to these questions. And needless to say, our brushfire survey yielded very intriguing results.

50% of the likely voters we surveyed said they had a favorable impression of Allen West, while 36% had an unfavorable impression of him. Surprisingly, 20% of Democrats viewed West favorably despite his conservative record.

Lois Frankel received a 28% favorable rating from voters, while 36% of those surveyed said they viewed her unfavorably.

On the ballot test, Congressman West holds a 53%-38% lead over Mayor Frankel, a fifteen-point spread.

Although West and Frankel are tied 45%-45% amongst Independent voters, West enjoys a massive 83%-10% lead over Frankel with Republican voters.

Additionally, West picks up 22% of Democrat voters, while Frankel earns support from 69% of voters in her own party.

http://viewpointflorida.org/index.php/site/article/allen_west_leads_top_democrat_opponent_by_15_points/
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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2011, 01:43:48 am »
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Considering this gerrymandered mess has no chance of staying the same shape with the new compactness law this is meaningless.
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2011, 02:59:36 pm »
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This excellent news for West.  His district is going to become more republican through redistricting, so he will be almost unbeatable at the way he's preforming before the new map.
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2011, 03:44:11 pm »
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This excellent news for West.  His district is going to become more republican through redistricting, so he will be almost unbeatable at the way he's preforming before the new map.

Actually, it's pretty widely accepted that West's district is going to become more Democratic, to the point that he's probably a political dead man walking.  Also, this is a Republican internal.  Additionally, West is not going to get anywhere near 22% of the Democratic vote, you can take that to the bank.  Finally, you do realize that this district is such a gerrymandered mess that all polling here fairly useless (especially internals like this one). 
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2011, 07:18:17 pm »
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I don't see how they could make his district more Republican even if they could (the fair districts amendment limits what they can do), there isn't a lot of reachable GOP territory available. That district will be about D+7 or D+8, he would never in a million years win a district with that PVI. He's too wacky to even get close.
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« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2011, 08:24:53 pm »
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This excellent news for West.  His district is going to become more republican through redistricting, so he will be almost unbeatable at the way he's preforming before the new map.

How? Even with a 4-3 GOP majority on the Florida Supreme Court there is no way to maintain that district at all unless the Florida statute is removed somehow, more or less make it more Republican. Plus there are no Republicans nearby, even if it were legal.  The district was created to protect a 30 year Republican Representative, Clay Shaw. He lost in 2006, and West doesn't have a fraction of Shaw's connections either.
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« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2011, 06:37:40 pm »
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This excellent news for West.  His district is going to become more republican through redistricting, so he will be almost unbeatable at the way he's preforming before the new map.

How? Even with a 4-3 GOP majority on the Florida Supreme Court there is no way to maintain that district at all unless the Florida statute is removed somehow, more or less make it more Republican. Plus there are no Republicans nearby, even if it were legal.  The district was created to protect a 30 year Republican Representative, Clay Shaw. He lost in 2006, and West doesn't have a fraction of Shaw's connections either.

If we get updated partisan data on Dave's redistricting site for Florida with the census numbers, we should create a challenge to see if anyone can make a compact district out of West's current territory that is less than Obama +10.
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« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2011, 07:47:12 pm »
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The Fair Districts Amendment will be largely ignored.
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« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2011, 08:01:56 pm »
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The Fair Districts Amendment will be largely ignored.

Of course it will. An awful lot of people here are making the mistake of assuming that fair actually mean fair.
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« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2011, 07:10:30 pm »
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The Fair Districts Amendment will be largely ignored.

Of course it will. An awful lot of people here are making the mistake of assuming that fair actually mean fair.

While it's true the Republicans will probably try to draw a map that looks nice but is actually a gerrymander a la Michigan it's tough to see how anything like this can possibly slip through:

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« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2011, 07:33:09 pm »
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1. lol internal poll
2. lol house poll
3. lol poll 19 month pre-election
4. lol poll that has a "likely voter" screen 19 months pre-election
5. lol poll for a to-be-redistricted seat
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