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lilTommy
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« Reply #450 on: November 21, 2011, 02:19:00 PM »

PSOE even lost the city of Barcelona to CiU...

Which is odd since PSC (PSOE) won 7 of the 10 districts in Barcelona... but they JUST lost it 27%CiU /25% PSC
http://www.generales2011.mir.es/99CG/DCG0908901999_L1.htm?d=301

PSOE also lost the city of Sevilla to PP but by a much large 44/36

I believe CiU also is in power at the Autonomous level in Catalonia so... have they been pushing for some sort of referendum like in Quebec, or the Scottish approach?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #451 on: November 21, 2011, 02:27:10 PM »

Theirs has always been the stealth approach. Retire from one Spanish institution after another, til your membership in Spain is no more relevant to anything than Britain's in the EU.
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scoopa
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« Reply #452 on: November 21, 2011, 02:33:05 PM »

Is this a threat, that the CiU has swept the area? Is Independence on the horizon?

CiU isn't independentist - I mean, there are some independentist factions but they're fairly weak. I don't think it means anything special. People just didn't want to vote for the PSC (PSOE) and the CiU candidates are fairly popular. I don't think there's any thread of referendums.
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Verily
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« Reply #453 on: November 21, 2011, 02:39:16 PM »

Left-right is a stronger fragmentation in Catalonian politics than independence-union. Pro-union and pro-independence parties frequently team up with their allies on the other side who are also right-wing or left-wing, while CiU working together with ERC and ICV (the main parties of the left on the pro-independence side) is virtually unheard of.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #454 on: November 21, 2011, 02:52:14 PM »

PSOE still topped the poll on the island of Gomera, fwiw. Cheesy
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scoopa
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« Reply #455 on: November 21, 2011, 02:55:58 PM »

I actually have asked this question once in the past (and gotten no answer)... why is the city of Cordoba relatively right-wing, voting for PP in 2008? Sevilla is totally different.

There must be other local factors, but I believe it is wealthier than Sevilla. At any rate, most Andalusian cities are to the right of the countryside.

There's an interesting local factor: Cordoba is known as the "Califato Rojo" (the red califate) because the communists (IU) have hold the municipality since the first local elections in 1979  (the former PCE and IU leader, Julio Anguita, was the first mayor - Alcalde - of Cordoba) till this year's 22M (when finally the PP conquered the city, José Antonio Neto), with the exception of a cycle in the 90s when even the IU won without an absolute majority and the PSOE councilmen made a coalition with the PP to get one of the Populares as the Alcalde.

So the PSOE has historically been very weak in Cordoba, generally the 2nd force in the left and because of local factors that happened during the transition: in the late 70s, Felipe Gonzales was trying to consolidate the non-communist left under the PSOE umbrella, so he made a deal to absorb a small leftist party, the PSP, which was basically the vehicle for a veru influential and charismatic leftist politician called Enrique Tierno Gálvan, who was loved by many in the left because of his anti-Franco and intellectual bona fides. Part of that deal was that the PSP would get the leadership in the lists to some alcaldías - Tierno Gálvan himself run for Madrid's Alcalde (and won). One of those cities was Cordoba. The problem was that the PSP indicated candidate was hugely unpopular, I think he wasn't even from Cordoba, the local PSOE rebelled and that allowed Anguita to win.

This is largely irrelevant in presidential elections, as leftists tended to concentrate their votes in the PSOE anyway, but it still makes a small difference. There are many people in Cordoba who tend to be suspicious of the PSOE as a party who cares more about Sevilla and Madrid then about Cordoba.

And yeah, in Andalucia the urban areas tend to be more rightwing then the country.
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scoopa
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« Reply #456 on: November 21, 2011, 03:19:46 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2011, 03:47:34 PM by scoopa »

In the past, for evil caciques. Nowadays, on modernized large farms.

Most of the people who works in farms these days are either non-voting immigrants or hands-on small-farmers in the coastal areas who never voted PSOE in the first place.

The PSOE was able to keep that large reserve of votes by mounting a huge rent-seeking operation that basically paid those voters to stay unemployed and by handling out public jobs via their domination of every level of government. They were still working for caciques, only political ones.

That's a big factor to explain PSOE's debacle in Andalucía: they run out of others people money to distribute, the party is over, so their clientéle abandoned them.

Left-right is a stronger fragmentation in Catalonian politics than independence-union. Pro-union and pro-independence parties frequently team up with their allies on the other side who are also right-wing or left-wing, while CiU working together with ERC and ICV (the main parties of the left on the pro-independence side) is virtually unheard of.

But not with the voters. It's still very difficult for the PP to penetrate that electorate of catalanist right-wing voters, as yesterday results show. The best they can hope for the time being is their neutrality: that they vote for the CiU and allow them to win nationally. But a large percentage of the CiU electorate is willing to vote for the PSOE - PSC to punish the PP, but they'll never vote for the PP to punish the PSOE-PSC. Most of the CiU electorate will never vote PP. Future generations, sure, but it'll take time.

The PP growth in Cataluña was due to a transfer of votes from leftist españolistas who usually vote PSC-PSOE, not right-wing nationalists.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #457 on: November 21, 2011, 03:34:13 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2011, 03:37:56 PM by Leftbehind »

Jesus, that's catastrophic. Didn't even have the upside of a strong IU vote, either.

Compared to what they'd gotten to (ie the brink of extinction)... yes it did.

Well sure, if you want to compare it to their all-time low, but they were nowhere near their 90's results, in an environment offering much richer pickings. The UPyD ended up as the bigger beneficiary, ffs.
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Hash
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« Reply #458 on: November 21, 2011, 05:19:29 PM »

CiU doesn't want independence, similar to how the Lliga didn't want independence either. It basically wants sovereignty-without-the-problems-of-sovereignty and might use self-determinationist rhetoric from time to time for political purposes, but they would probably never hold a direct referendum on independence. If they held a referendum it would be on something similar to what Ibarretxe had proposed in 2005, though without the racial undertones and probably less radical. What it wants now is the ability to raise taxes on its own through a concierto economico, like the Basques and Navarrese have. Something which they can dream for as long as the PP is in power, imo.

As for the PP's growth in Catalonia, 2010 and May 2011 results showed that growth came from traditionally Socialist working-class hinterlands around Barcelona (such as Badalona, which now has a PP mayor), where their campaigns on immigration and criminality worked out for them. I haven't checked yesterday's results, but I suspect the patterns were similar.

Yeah, in my Andalusian cursory analysis I had forgotten to mention the agrarian subsidy, opponents of which say is a clientelistic government handout (by the PSOE) to its voters, and to an extent it is quite that and in practice it is rife with corruption and all types of abuses, but in recent years its effect has been much diminished as qualifications for it are much tougher (Aznar's government changed it, iirc) and today they're running out of money. Tradition mixed in with traditional poverty and alienation is becoming a more important reason in the PSOE's vote in Andalusia. But it is noteworthy that long-term demographic changes in Andalusia are unfavourable to the left with the perhaps-halted tourism/coastal old people who go there to die phenomenon plus the new types of agriculture in Almeria.

PSOE still topped the poll on the island of Gomera, fwiw. Cheesy

By a surprisingly tiny margin. I wonder what kind of impact the weird scandal of the PSOE's local monarch and ex-Senator Casimiro Curbelo had on the results there (ftr, Curbelo is the old local boss of the island, the long-time boss of the local council and long-time senator; who was pretty useless nationally but was a real cacique in terms of local politics. He was arrested or something in relation to a weird thing about insulting a police officer in some sauna in Madrid).
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #459 on: November 21, 2011, 06:33:31 PM »

Some thougts, tomorrow more...:

-I'm also glad Uxue kept her seat.
-I'd have traded 1 PSOE seat for 1 seat for mr. Revilla.
-Zapatero is the most voted president in our history. Rajoy only won 1/2 million votes more than in 2008.
-I love Seville
-I love Barcelona
-Here in my city, at the north of Madrid (conservative areas) PP has got 49.5% of the vote. what does that mean? that we did a good campaign here Smiley
-Cordoba is more leftist than Seville. The problem is that its fukll of communists, who have stayed at home or voted IU.
-UPyD used to be a party full of intelligent people. Not anymore. Toni Canto is an idiot and the people who voted "magenta" didn't know what UPyD stands for.
-I can't understand how on earth UPyD got 10.5% of the vote in Sanse!! they didn't even manage to get 5% in May!! And there are lots of communists here (II-IU people)
-People in the right voted with their brain (small brain), not with their heart. I know lots of conservative people here in Madrid, and in Asturias, who love Cascos and hate Rajoy, but voted Rajoy.
-ETA won't come back never again. Amaiur leader is a good guy and will become a popular politicia for sure, so I expect them to continue growing.
-PSOE has to restart. I nominate Patxi López, but Carme Chacón and Eduardo Madina are good candidates for the general secretary position, too. Oh, if ANTONIO MIGUEL CARMONA DECIDES TO RUN, HERE HE HAS HIS MOST LOYAL SUPPORTER!
-Rubalcaba is not the looser of the night. Not even Zapatero. the looser is "PSOE" in general (myself included). We have a solid base (7 million votes) but our campaign was awful (I haven't heard about Gürtel this month). Also, we had the best candidate we could get, so RbCb is not to be blamed. Zapatero did all he could to save Spain, and we haven't been "rescued" like Greece, ireland or Portugal Smiley
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redcommander
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« Reply #460 on: November 21, 2011, 08:32:04 PM »

Some thougts, tomorrow more...:

-I'm also glad Uxue kept her seat.
-I'd have traded 1 PSOE seat for 1 seat for mr. Revilla.
-Zapatero is the most voted president in our history. Rajoy only won 1/2 million votes more than in 2008.
-I love Seville
-I love Barcelona
-Here in my city, at the north of Madrid (conservative areas) PP has got 49.5% of the vote. what does that mean? that we did a good campaign here Smiley
-Cordoba is more leftist than Seville. The problem is that its fukll of communists, who have stayed at home or voted IU.
-UPyD used to be a party full of intelligent people. Not anymore. Toni Canto is an idiot and the people who voted "magenta" didn't know what UPyD stands for.
-I can't understand how on earth UPyD got 10.5% of the vote in Sanse!! they didn't even manage to get 5% in May!! And there are lots of communists here (II-IU people)
-People in the right voted with their brain (small brain), not with their heart. I know lots of conservative people here in Madrid, and in Asturias, who love Cascos and hate Rajoy, but voted Rajoy.
-ETA won't come back never again. Amaiur leader is a good guy and will become a popular politicia for sure, so I expect them to continue growing.
-PSOE has to restart. I nominate Patxi López, but Carme Chacón and Eduardo Madina are good candidates for the general secretary position, too. Oh, if ANTONIO MIGUEL CARMONA DECIDES TO RUN, HERE HE HAS HIS MOST LOYAL SUPPORTER!
-Rubalcaba is not the looser of the night. Not even Zapatero. the looser is "PSOE" in general (myself included). We have a solid base (7 million votes) but our campaign was awful (I haven't heard about Gürtel this month). Also, we had the best candidate we could get, so RbCb is not to be blamed. Zapatero did all he could to save Spain, and we haven't been "rescued" like Greece, ireland or Portugal Smiley


How exactly did Zapatero save Spain? He racked up an even larger deficit than Aznar did, and didn't attempt to address unemployment before it reached Depression like levels. He then sold out his party's ideology and supporters by attempting a last minute austerity program which pissed off people even more. The only good thing for the PSOE was that he resigned before the election as they could have quite possibly received less than 100 seats with him at the helm. I would say considering the circumstances, Rubalcaba ran a decent campaign. At least he managed to contain the PSOE's polling free fall.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #461 on: November 22, 2011, 03:36:54 AM »

Couldn't Rubalcaba stay at the lead of the party ? After all, Rajoy lost twice before winning...
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Colbert
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« Reply #462 on: November 22, 2011, 06:30:44 AM »


Why is that part of the south so socialist?

If you people read my guide or parts of it, you would all know!

(Scroll down to the entry on Andalusia in my guide for the answer. Simply put, it's the land of latifundios, agricultural labourers and utter poverty).




à quand une version en français de votre blog?
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #463 on: November 22, 2011, 07:06:03 AM »

He's from France so he could probably write one up Tongue
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scoopa
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« Reply #464 on: November 22, 2011, 08:55:09 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2011, 09:49:58 AM by scoopa »


Couldn't Rubalcaba stay at the lead of the party ? After all, Rajoy lost twice before winning...

Yeah, but Rajoy never lost by a difference of 4 million votes and he wasn't a member of the most unpopular government ever.

I would say considering the circumstances, Rubalcaba ran a decent campaign. At least he managed to contain the PSOE's polling free fall.

He lost by 16 points and went below 30%. Out of almost 90 polls published this year, only 4 estimated the PSOE at 29% or less.

There's nothing to suggest Rubalcaba's campaign helped the PSOE numbers. I think his decision to turn left and to attack the PP by scaremongering didn't do them any favors. It made the PSOE look schizophrenic and from the perspective of the center electorate, irresponsible and disingenuous, in denial. Voters aren't stupid, they're aware the status quo is unsustainable.

Some thougts, tomorrow more...:
-Here in my city, at the north of Madrid (conservative areas) PP has got 49.5% of the vote. what does that mean? that we did a good campaign here Smiley

I haven't looked at Madrid's numbers yet, but I suspect Rajoy underperformed in Sierra Nuerte, the Northwest exurbs and the Henares Corridor. I think he lost votes for the UPyD in those conservative bastions.

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The PP used to win the generales in Cordoba because of the IU overperforming, but this year they got more votes than the PSOE and IU combined.
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Disagree.
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Agreed. UPyD is a fresh party, with fresh faces and with an empty, but feel good and morally self-righteous, rhetoric. And without the baggage of being part of the "system"...yet.  

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Centrist PSOE voters, some PP voters. I wasn't surprised by UPyD doing well in Madrid.
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ETA-Amaiur shouldn't be allowed to form a caucus. They didn't get 15% in all the provinces they ran or 5% nationally. It'll be interesting to see how that plays up. Not that I have my hopes up, they'll probably adjust the law to allow them to form a caucus.
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He almost got us there, but we didnt' give him enough time. Not that the situation is substantially different, we're a couple of weeks from being Greece is immediate action isn't taken.
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scoopa
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« Reply #465 on: November 22, 2011, 09:13:16 AM »

CiU doesn't want independence, similar to how the Lliga didn't want independence either. It basically wants sovereignty-without-the-problems-of-sovereignty and might use self-determinationist rhetoric from time to time for political purposes, but they would probably never hold a direct referendum on independence. If they held a referendum it would be on something similar to what Ibarretxe had proposed in 2005, though without the racial undertones and probably less radical. What it wants now is the ability to raise taxes on its own through a concierto economico, like the Basques and Navarrese have. Something which they can dream for as long as the PP is in power, imo.

As for the PP's growth in Catalonia, 2010 and May 2011 results showed that growth came from traditionally Socialist working-class hinterlands around Barcelona (such as Badalona, which now has a PP mayor), where their campaigns on immigration and criminality worked out for them. I haven't checked yesterday's results, but I suspect the patterns were similar.

Yeah, in my Andalusian cursory analysis I had forgotten to mention the agrarian subsidy, opponents of which say is a clientelistic government handout (by the PSOE) to its voters, and to an extent it is quite that and in practice it is rife with corruption and all types of abuses, but in recent years its effect has been much diminished as qualifications for it are much tougher (Aznar's government changed it, iirc) and today they're running out of money. Tradition mixed in with traditional poverty and alienation is becoming a more important reason in the PSOE's vote in Andalusia. But it is noteworthy that long-term demographic changes in Andalusia are unfavourable to the left with the perhaps-halted tourism/coastal old people who go there to die phenomenon plus the new types of agriculture in Almeria.

I agree with most of that.

The regional Andalusian regional elections next March are going to be very important. If we could extrapolate Sunday's results, the PP would win 60 out of 109 seats. If the PP conquers the autonomic government, I think that will  break the spine to the socialist machine in Andalucía and put an end to the dominance of the socialist caciques like Guerra, Chaves, Zarrías or Griñán. Once that happens and that system of patronage is gone, I think Andalucía will quickly become a competitive playground, no need to wait for long run demographic trends. It's going to be very interesting to see how the March elections play out.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #466 on: November 22, 2011, 09:15:04 AM »

On the other hand, the new government will presumably be fairly unpopular by then.
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scoopa
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« Reply #467 on: November 22, 2011, 09:30:36 AM »

Next March? How do you figure?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #468 on: November 22, 2011, 09:32:18 AM »


How likely is this government to get a honeymoon period, exactly? But then I won't pretend to understand the Spanish electorate(s), so this is more... I don't know... general speculation. And I suppose the PSOE will remain somewhat on the discredited side. Maybe the IU will do very well.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #469 on: November 22, 2011, 12:04:20 PM »

CiU doesn't want independence, similar to how the Lliga didn't want independence either. It basically wants sovereignty-without-the-problems-of-sovereignty and might use self-determinationist rhetoric from time to time for political purposes, but they would probably never hold a direct referendum on independence.
Plaid Catalunya, without the subregional issue.
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scoopa
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« Reply #470 on: November 22, 2011, 02:39:39 PM »


How likely is this government to get a honeymoon period, exactly? But then I won't pretend to understand the Spanish electorate(s), so this is more... I don't know... general speculation. And I suppose the PSOE will remain somewhat on the discredited side. Maybe the IU will do very well.

Why wouldn't it have a honeymoon period? Because of the "unpopular" spending cuts and the economic situation?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #471 on: November 22, 2011, 03:06:59 PM »

Basically, if this
Not that the situation is substantially different, we're a couple of weeks from being Greece is immediate action isn't taken.
were literally true... then voting in a new government now would have been tantamount to suicide. Just forming governments don't perform well in crises.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #472 on: November 22, 2011, 04:10:45 PM »


Couldn't Rubalcaba stay at the lead of the party ? After all, Rajoy lost twice before winning...

Yeah, but Rajoy never lost by a difference of 4 million votes and he wasn't a member of the most unpopular government ever.

Nobody intellectually honest can claim it was his fault, though.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #473 on: November 22, 2011, 04:56:25 PM »


Couldn't Rubalcaba stay at the lead of the party ? After all, Rajoy lost twice before winning...

Yeah, but Rajoy never lost by a difference of 4 million votes and he wasn't a member of the most unpopular government ever.

Nobody intellectually honest can claim it was his fault, though.

Exactly that. everybody understands that if we lost by 16 points it was because we could not loose by less. Rubalcaba is the best candidate we had, and he made a decent campaign.


And scoopa, I doubt you're Spanish ("Sierra Nuerte", OMG! the typical error of a non-spanish).

And Rubalcaba didn't loose votes from the centre, he didn't manage to win upset votes in the left. That was the problem. 71% of the people voted this time, while 76% voted in 2008. Zapatero won 11 million votes, while Rajoy has only won 500000 votes more than in 2008. so, what does that mean? IMHO, socialists have stayed at home. The problem was not the centre Wink
And I still can't understand HOW UPyD got 10% in my town. I expected IU to get a formidable result, and they LOST votes from 2008!!! And it's specially interesting considering that the composition of our "Ayuntamiento" is:

PP 14 concejales with 49% of the vote
PSOE 5 concejales with 19% of the vote
Izquierda Independiente (greens, commies and socialists) 5 concejales 17% of the vote
IU 1 concejal and 7% of the vote
UPyD 0 concejales and 4.85% of the vote

Results this Sunday were PP 49.5%, PSOE 26%, UPyD 10.5% and IU 8.5%.
I suppose what happened is that:
-A majority of PP voters still voted PP, and they won the support of some people who didn't vote in may.
-50% of II voters voted PSOE and, obviously, a huge majority of PSOE voters (may) voted PSOE
-IU voters voted IU and some of II voters too.
-UPyD managed to get their 5% of may voters and picked uo some PP support, and a minimal support from ex-PSOE voters.

I have to understand it as soon as possible, so I'll find out who voted UPyD here and why.

___________________________

And to those who claim ZP didn't save Spain, let me remind you...

1-Greece goes down the flames
2-BREAKING NEWS: Spain will come next.
3-Bye bye Ireland!
4-BREAKING NEWS: EIRE FAILS: SPAIN, YOU'RE THE NEXT!!
5-Oh, Portugal...
6-BREAKING NEWS: SPAIN CAN'T SURVIVE IF ITS NEIGHBOR HAS BEEN "RESCUED"
7-Here comesa Italy, which is at more risk  than Spain of being rescued!!

Zapatero did what he needed to. And he did so in May, 2010. Thanks, President!
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redcommander
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« Reply #474 on: November 22, 2011, 05:14:46 PM »

Does anyone know if any ministers or cabinet officials lost their seats? Usually with a loss that big you would expect that to happen.
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