Spanish General Election 2011

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Yeah, call it parliamentary. Even though the presidential candidate in Spain plays a major role and is pretty defining, more so than a simple party leader like here.

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Yes, Zapatero is president, not prime minister... I'd call it Parliamentarian elections... but really, here in spain we talk about "elecciones presidenciales", not "elecciones del congreso", so I think it's fair to call them presidential elections... I know the name may be wrong, but if you ask here in spain if they vote for a candidate for president or if they're electing a new congress, more or less about 90% of people will answer they are voting for their new president.
The thing is, do you think PSOE will be able to recover??

So Spain is a parliamentary democracy in name only ? Too bad, they don't know how lucky they are not to live under a presidential autocracy.

I don't see how Spain's parliamentary system with party leaders and PMs playing a dominant role is any different to Canada, the UK, Italy or other countries. It's not as if the leader's stature plays no role in those countries, especially Italy.

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I don't really know what they're trying to gain. Letting the Falangists take charge a tad earlier? Hope quixotically to gain something out of Rubalcaba's recent nomination? Hope that corruption in Valencia and the Falange in general will play a role?

At any rate, a PSOE win in this would be a comeback kid for the centuries. Yes, I know Rubalcaba's quite popular and Rajoy isn't, but the PP remains favoured.

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July 2011 CIS poll/vote estimate:

PP 43.1%
PSOE 36%
IU 5.1%
CiU 3.1%
UPyD 3%
ERC 1.1%
PNV 1%

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I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

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I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

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I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

You're lucky it's the morning and I feel generous.
"nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right [...]" That is one of the biggest false statements I've heard.

While it is true that Basque and Catalan nationalism are in plurality right-wing, and they have clear reasons for being right-wing; what holds the PNV and CiU together is not acting as a conservative-party-for-the-region a la UPN but rather nationalism. Both parties appeal beyond basic conservatism and the right. While perhaps in a totally alternate universe where there's no such thing as Basque and Catalan nationalism and everybody there loves Spain, maybe the PP would be strong.

If the PP is weak in those regions it is because it carries opinions contrary to those of a majority of voters. It is because it is the voice of Spanish nationalism and has a clear record of opposing much devolution, although the Aznar 96-00 government did indeed devolve powers which had yet to be devolved. The Catalan PP is the only party, with the Cs, which is not even moderately Catalanist, which a vast majority of Catalan voters (80%+) are. Its strongholds are not rural Catalonia, but rather the least nationalist coastal region around Barcelona. The Basque PP is the most vocal representative of Spanish nationalism in Euskadi. If it has such a base in Euskadi today it is only because Basque nationalism unlike Catalanism is not some broad consensus shared by 8 in 10 Basques, but rather a polarizing ideology which has its fair share of opponents, a lot stemming from the fact that many people in Euskadi don't even understand Euskara and have historically hated Basque nationalists. It also has a base as the most vocal opponent of ETA's terror, which has allowed it to take in a lot of votes from ETA opponents. Normally, people who hate ETA don't normally vote PNV, you know.

While the CiU and PNV have both cooperated with the PP, they did so for clear reasons of necessity. The CiU is closer to the PP because they're moderates, but there is very bad blood between the PNV and PP ever since roughly 1998 (and before, obviously. I doubt the Gernika Survivors Club is fond of Manuel Fraga's party) when the PNV chose the path of alliances with other nationalists including the abertzales instead of the 1980s cooperation with Socialists. It is infinitely clear that the PP does NOT lose support to nationalists because the two take votes from very, very different groups of voters. Those Euskara speakers in, say, Gernika who vote PNV would rather eat their feces than vote for a party which a lot see as the Falange reincarnated. They are much, much more likely to vote abertzale; and, in general, for Socialists.

I don't think you grasp how Basque and Catalan nationalism is not just some cute regionalism about defending a cute language like in Bretagne, but rather a real vision of Spain and vision of the world which is a defining societal and political thing. For them, there's a lot more to nationalism than speaking Catalan/Euskara with friends in a bar. They have a vision of Spain which is different, very much so in the PP's case, from the rest of Spain's vision (broadly speaking and acting as if Galician nationalists are not there). So, yes, please stop "making bold assertions about things you don't know a damn about" because it is very annoying.

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El Mundo also has a poll, but only for Andalusia.

But because Andalusia has about 9 Mio. of the 47 Mio. inhabitants, it carries some weight.

Here is how Andalusia voted in 2008:

51.9% PSOE
38.2% PP

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/busquedaAvanzadaAction.html?vuelta=1&codTipoEleccion=2&codPeriodo=200803&codEstado=99&codComunidad=1&codProvincia=0&codMunicipio=0&codDistrito=0&codSeccion=0&codMesa=0

Here is what the El Mundo poll projects for November:

48.9% PP
34.3% PSOE

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/07/28/andalucia/1311847293.html

That is really a very, very bad indicator ...

This poll is for regional elections in Andalusia, not the November general elections. Normally, they will be held in March 2012 alongside the GE if there had been no early dissolution. This year, it seems as if Andalusia will hold them alone in March and not precipitate them.

There has been some major scandals around the autonomous government involving the government paying early retirement for people who never worked for a company: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esc%C3%A1ndalo_de_los_ERE_en_Andaluc%C3%ADa The economy is also, obviously, very bad in Andalusia with something like 30% unemployment.

The PP had already topped the poll in Andalusia in May, the first time since the 1979 locals that a party other than the PSOE did so. The PSOE vote fell by 9% in Andalusia while falling by 7.8% nationally. The PP vote increased by 6.9% in Andalusia while only increasing by a bit less than 2% nationally.

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CiU's fall back from its already poor 2008 showing (21.3%) is interesting. Not all that surprising, given that the Generalitat's finances are in bad shape and the CiU is in power there, but quite interesting. The CiU had already done badly in 2008 - 21.6% - which is a rather poor result even in a general election for them - so performing worst than that is a tad surprising. Also good news for the PSC, given that the Socialists need to do well in Catalonia (they already did spectacularly well in 2008, better even than 1982) to have a shot at winning nationally especially if the Andalusian nightmare plays out for them at the GE.

ERC could probably be at risk of losing all its seats or more likely 2 of its 3 seats. It seems to be falling back to its lows of the pre-2004 era rapidly.

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Well, ERC also suffered a lot from the retirement of Josep Lluis Carod Rovira a few years back: he had been a main cause of the ERC's rebirth of sorts in the late 90s and especially 2003-2004.

As for CiU, I don't see why them losing support isn't likely. They do have room to grow, but let's remember that CiU already did relatively poorly in May and that they could suffer the brunt of popular discontent against austerity given that they're now in power in Barcelona.

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Any significant news or polling recently? Things seem to have gotten awfully quiet.

Nothing afaik. It's dead season as the campaign hasn't started and the writs haven't officially been dropped yet. Most of what has made news yet are little snippets like abolishing provincial governments, proposed by Rubalcaba who then backtracked. Only significant news imo is that Aralar has signed a deal with Bildu for a common slate for the general elections which the PNV has refused. Aralar has nothing much to loose given that Bildu has stolen most of its votes.

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If anybody is interested in this trainwreck:

The PP will win, and if they don't win an absolute majority they should shoot themselves for stupidity. Their campaign is stupid, boring, populistic and hypocritical (attacking the PSOE from the left). But nobody cares. The PP has a deal with the UPN (Navarre) and the PAR (Aragon)

Bildu and Aralar have formed a coalition named Amaiur, Aralar will lead it in Navarre where Amaiur's creation means the end for NaBai. NaBai's only deputy, Uxue Barkos (indie) has formed her coalition with the PNV called Geroa Bai (as time goes on, the name for these coalitions become increasingly terribly tin-pot). The effects of Amaiur on the PNV are as of yet unknown, with predictions for PNV seats ranging from 3 to 7.

Equo, Spain's new green-left party, is going to run. In the Balearics, it has formed a coalition with the nationalists (PSM) and in Valencia with the Coalicio Compromis (nationalists). It is led in Madrid by former Greenpeace boss Juan López de Uralde and the number two is Inés Sabanés (ex-IU). It could win seats, especially given that the threshold in Madrid is like 2-2.5%.

Francisco Alvarez-Cascos, the president of Asturias and leader of the right-wing FAC will run in Madrid and Asturias. It could win seats. Alvarez-Cascos is a former VP of the government under Aznar and was on the PP's far-right and always complained that nobody liked him and threw a hissy fit and left the party. He's one of those 90s-like "regional party which hates regionalists". The FAC needs 10-11% in Asturias to win one seat.

Revilla, the former president of Cantabria and leader of the regionalist PRC is running in Cantabria and elsewhere with the PCAS (Castilian Party) and PR (Riojan party). He'd need 16% in Cantabria to win a seat.

Spanish pollsters are fyckwits who refuse to poll Amaiur, Equo or FAC. And only right-wing media polls, basically.

A PP internal had PP on 189 seats, PSOE on 115, IU on 8, CiU on 14, PNV 6, UPYD 3, PNV 6, Amaiur 4-5 and FAC 1-2. A poll by El Mundo sez PP 47.4%/PSOE 31.8%/IU 5%/CIU 3.2%/UPYD 3.1%/PNV 1.2%.

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The gap may close, yeah, and I'm a bit wary of the polls because the bulk of them are for the right-wing media (though one for the Periodico showed the same numbers).

But even if the PP campaign sucks balls, they're the sole governing alternative to a government in a country with 20%+ unemployment and which makes headlines daily because it is speculated it'll go bankrupt like Greece soon. Even if the opposition sucks balls, it's hard for it not to win in a landslide (eg: Enda Kenny). Their campaign sucked balls in May and there were some important corruption cases then, yet it won in a landslide too. I guess they'll win a narrow absolute majority, at 2000 levels give or take. Similar result for the PSOE, a bit over the 2000 results if they campaign well.

re: Upyd: if they are to win 2 or 3 additional seats, they'll be in Madrid. Their problem is that outside Madrid, they do best in provinces which have very few seats, and do more poorly in the populated provinces like in Valencia or Andalusia. Valencia might be its only big chance outside Madrid and they have an actor guy as their candidate there.

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Is it fair to say that PP is close to the mainstream of the Republican Party here (let's try to avoid the Tea Party rants, etc.)?

Aguirre, FAC and their gang are close to the modern mainstream of the GOP. Rajoy and the gang would be rather moderate establishment politicians. Ruiz-Gallardon and his gang would be Democrats.

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Doesn't Spain have some form of proportional representation? How is it that the IU can get so few seats even with over 10% of the vote?

Yes, but PR in provinces, which means that the real threshold in a lot of provinces with few seats is pretty high and in practice favours a polarized two-party system. The only places where the threshold is reasonable enough for third parties like IU to win seats are those with 10-12 or more seats, of which there are pretty few such constituencies.

(All things you guys would know if you read my blog!)

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A Coruña is actually historically the most left-wing province in Galicia and the only one which has voted PSOE in the past. But yes, the PP did exceptionally well in A Coruña this year with the big gains in Ferrol and Santiago which were pretty historic. In contrast, the PP's performance wasn't as shockingly impressive in Pontevedra, Lugo or Ourense.

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I voted for the PNV, and so did my dad and sister.

FF!

Hopefully the PNV does keep all its 6 seats. I doubt they'll win less than 5 seats, though.

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Fast-growing areas usually suck balls, though.

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Nice to see the nationalists are doing well, but it's a pity for the PNV.

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Ugh, UPyD is awful and Rosa Diez is an insane Franquista.

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Wow. I need the name of that anchor on the live stream.    She's the only thing better than the results right now.

She's Ana Blanco. The left is in love with her (myself included) and is a brillant journalist, but PP hates her because they say she's biased (which is false, as RTVE and her programme "Los desayunos" has got a lot of international recognition and has won many prizes).

I think he's referring to Ana Pastor, who's way hotter.

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Hopefully the PP doesn't act too fascist and tries to ban Amaiur again.

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The full exit poll is here:
http://www.rtve.es/noticias/elecciones/generales/sondeos-electorales/

Euskadi is funny.

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Seems like the PP told its fans not to bring the Francoist flag like they had in the past.

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I love you Euskadi.