Spanish General Election 2011

[minionofmidas]

President of Government is fine. Italy's head of government is called Presidente del Consiglio too, even though since the last decade Italians have started calling it "Premier" which means nothing.

Beat me.
Of course, Italy also has a "normal" President.

I wonder if calling the Spanish President that is something of a formulaic compromise from the late 70s, when the reintroduction of the monarchy was far from universally accepted.
Wikipedia tells me that until 1939, the Spanish prime minister was called "President of the Council of Ministers", ie the exact same title as the Italian one. Franco was "President of the Government" (ie the modern title) and "Caudillo" until 1973, which is reminiscent of, and probably modelled on, Hitler's double-title as "Führer und Reichskanzler". After that he served "only" as Caudillo, partly out of old age and de facto inability to govern, partly as part of the transition to a monarchy (conceived to be less direct than Franco's rule had been, even though not by any stretch as the democracy Spain would become by a gradual process begun right after Franco's death and not really finished until after the 81 coup.)

[minionofmidas]

Beat me.

Why should I ?

It's past tense. You made the point about "Italy too" before I could.

[minionofmidas]

Things certainly were very different in Italy pre Tangentopoli. (Though they started to change in the 80s.)

[minionofmidas]

It sounds seriously stupid to not vote tactically much given the election law... yet I have a feeling that lots of people in Spain might and don't. Greece is even stranger in that respect.

[minionofmidas]

Toni's thinking of DSK.

[minionofmidas]

Aguirre the schoolbook snatcher...doesn't have the same ring to it.

Is that an Aguirre, the Wrath of God reference or am I seeing things?

[minionofmidas]

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

[minionofmidas]

A lot of American posters in this board do exactly that, and it's genuinely annoying.

And when it comes to European posters talking about American elections...

Oh, there's plenty of American idiots on the relevant boards who are so idiotic that we slip right under the radar unless you look hard.

[minionofmidas]

If that poll is accurate, then... wow.

[minionofmidas]

     I will admit to being deeply ignorant of Spanish politics, but what I've seen in this thread suggests that Spain is essentially a two-party state.

Sizable parts of it are. Others, absolutely not. And even in those sizable parts, it's a recent phenomenon thanks to the near-complete collapse of the IU. Which remains a quite old fashioned Commie party... which helps explain that. A lot of the electorate that votes for Green or other minor left parties elsewhere in Europe has no choice but to stick to PSOE in Spain.

[minionofmidas]

What this election needed - it is too late now - is a new left alternative to the PSOE. Along the lines of the Democracia Ya protests, for instance.

[minionofmidas]

Doesn't Spain have some form of proportional representation? How is it that the IU can get so few seats even with over 10% of the vote?

D'hondt by constituency.

[minionofmidas]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

I doubt it. PSOE is polling above 30% right now, and "technocrats" here say PSOE is trailing by 9 points (so, experts say polls are biased because people is really angry and say they're not going to vote PSOE... and finally they WILL vote PSOE).

Felipe Gonzalez has said today he was trailing by 9 points in 1996, too, and lost by only 1 point. So, for him it's not impossible to win this. I'm not that optimistic, but I hope we get better results than expected.

Exactly - Gonzalez seemed to trail by 9, but lost only by 1. Rubalcaba seems to trail by 19, and will lose by only 9.
If those experts are right, and a lot of middling-soft PSOE support comes back.

[minionofmidas]

Gonzalez too was seen as probably trailing by less than polls claimed (though more than the single point he eventually lost by).

[minionofmidas]

'89 and '96 are "prettiest".

[minionofmidas]

Could I ask what the polling hours are (local time) and whether I may be permitted to report the results sourcing EuroNews?

Why shouldn't you be permitted ?

Because EuroNews is not a quality source. There'll be much better ones available.

I saw something that seems to imply polls close at 9 (local time). No idea if polls close at 9 local time in the Canaries (which use GMT) or at the same time as on the continent.

[minionofmidas]

What's your town?

[minionofmidas]

You mean, a livestream of some tv station's reporting of the results? You want to practice your spoken Spanish comprehension?

[minionofmidas]

My town is San Sebastian de los Reyes (north of Madrid)

Heh. The German wiki has more to say on it than the English.

[minionofmidas]

My town is San Sebastian de los Reyes (north of Madrid)

Heh. The German wiki has more to say on it than the English.

It's a dull, uninteresting place (Sorry Julio). A Spanish equivalent of an exurb nowadays.

Well, what do you expect from a place that was a village until 50 years ago and now has almost 80,000 inhabitants?

[minionofmidas]

By the way, it's not Aralar but Amaiur, and yes, it will achieve a very good result.

Which is Aralar + EA, right?

[minionofmidas]

By the way, it's not Aralar but Amaiur, and yes, it will achieve a very good result.

Which is Aralar + EA, right?

Aralar+Bildu (EA, Alternatiba and more importantly, the zquierda Abertzale)

Which is... some new mainline HB successor?

[minionofmidas]

Good showing for regional parties and/or Commies, then.

Heh. And then Julio beat me, with the detailed figures. Thanks!

[minionofmidas]

Hilariously detailed exit polls you got.

And yes, 14-7 (it's also on the website. By province, with percentages e.g. "Sevilla PSOE 40.7 5-6 seats, PP 39.6 5-6 seats, IU 7.7 0-1 seats".)

[minionofmidas]

Note how the two northern Basque parties are being won by different parties.