Spanish General Election 2011

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

[redcommander]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

You're lucky it's the morning and I feel generous.
"nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right [...]" That is one of the biggest false statements I've heard.

While it is true that Basque and Catalan nationalism are in plurality right-wing, and they have clear reasons for being right-wing; what holds the PNV and CiU together is not acting as a conservative-party-for-the-region a la UPN but rather nationalism. Both parties appeal beyond basic conservatism and the right. While perhaps in a totally alternate universe where there's no such thing as Basque and Catalan nationalism and everybody there loves Spain, maybe the PP would be strong.

If the PP is weak in those regions it is because it carries opinions contrary to those of a majority of voters. It is because it is the voice of Spanish nationalism and has a clear record of opposing much devolution, although the Aznar 96-00 government did indeed devolve powers which had yet to be devolved. The Catalan PP is the only party, with the Cs, which is not even moderately Catalanist, which a vast majority of Catalan voters (80%+) are. Its strongholds are not rural Catalonia, but rather the least nationalist coastal region around Barcelona. The Basque PP is the most vocal representative of Spanish nationalism in Euskadi. If it has such a base in Euskadi today it is only because Basque nationalism unlike Catalanism is not some broad consensus shared by 8 in 10 Basques, but rather a polarizing ideology which has its fair share of opponents, a lot stemming from the fact that many people in Euskadi don't even understand Euskara and have historically hated Basque nationalists. It also has a base as the most vocal opponent of ETA's terror, which has allowed it to take in a lot of votes from ETA opponents. Normally, people who hate ETA don't normally vote PNV, you know.

While the CiU and PNV have both cooperated with the PP, they did so for clear reasons of necessity. The CiU is closer to the PP because they're moderates, but there is very bad blood between the PNV and PP ever since roughly 1998 (and before, obviously. I doubt the Gernika Survivors Club is fond of Manuel Fraga's party) when the PNV chose the path of alliances with other nationalists including the abertzales instead of the 1980s cooperation with Socialists. It is infinitely clear that the PP does NOT lose support to nationalists because the two take votes from very, very different groups of voters. Those Euskara speakers in, say, Gernika who vote PNV would rather eat their feces than vote for a party which a lot see as the Falange reincarnated. They are much, much more likely to vote abertzale; and, in general, for Socialists.

I don't think you grasp how Basque and Catalan nationalism is not just some cute regionalism about defending a cute language like in Bretagne, but rather a real vision of Spain and vision of the world which is a defining societal and political thing. For them, there's a lot more to nationalism than speaking Catalan/Euskara with friends in a bar. They have a vision of Spain which is different, very much so in the PP's case, from the rest of Spain's vision (broadly speaking and acting as if Galician nationalists are not there). So, yes, please stop "making bold assertions about things you don't know a damn about" because it is very annoying.

There's no point in arguing because whatever I say will be interpreted as being incorrect, or not as detailed as you would like. Sorry if what I stated made it seem as though I was associating the PNV and CIU with political parties like the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania and Swedish People's Party in Finland.

[redcommander]

I still do not grasp the fact that Rajoy has not been kicked out as PP leader. Surly there must be someone better.

There are, but according to Juliomadrid, its hard to kick him out because the PP doesn't have a party election system like the PSOE.

[redcommander]

El Mundo also has a poll, but only for Andalusia.

But because Andalusia has about 9 Mio. of the 47 Mio. inhabitants, it carries some weight.

Here is how Andalusia voted in 2008:

51.9% PSOE
38.2% PP

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/busquedaAvanzadaAction.html?vuelta=1&codTipoEleccion=2&codPeriodo=200803&codEstado=99&codComunidad=1&codProvincia=0&codMunicipio=0&codDistrito=0&codSeccion=0&codMesa=0

Here is what the El Mundo poll projects for November:

48.9% PP
34.3% PSOE

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/07/28/andalucia/1311847293.html

That is really a very, very bad indicator ...

What broke in the news recently that has led to such a massive swing? Most recent national polls were only showing the PSOE down by 6-10 points.

[redcommander]

Can someone explain without heavy doses of bias why Rajoy is so disliked?

He's very Conservative for a right-winger in Europe.

[redcommander]

The PP (horrible party) will win with a majority, then the economy will be worse, then riots n' stuff. The King shall save the country again.

"Eshpanoles, vuestro Rey sufre con vosotro'" and all that sh**t.

Why aren't you a PP supporter if you vote Conservative in Uruguay? I'm not sure if Juan Carlos can do much if there are more protests.

[redcommander]

The PP (horrible party) will win with a majority, then the economy will be worse, then riots n' stuff. The King shall save the country again.

"Eshpanoles, vuestro Rey sufre con vosotro'" and all that sh**t.

Why aren't you a PP supporter if you vote Conservative in Uruguay? I'm not sure if Juan Carlos can do much if there are more protests.

Conservatives in Spain are much more to the right than right parties in Uruguay. I mean, half of the right parties here support homosexual marriage.

So is the Frente Amplio and Colorado Party basically borderline Communist then?

[redcommander]

It's somewhat surprising Republicanism isn't as strong in Spain as in some other nations. Doesn't it seem a little pointless for millions of Euros being spent each year to maintain palaces, and other properties which the Royal Family doesn't even use (The Palace in Madrid being a perfect example)? I have nothing against them, it just seems strange that they are so modest relative to their Royal status.

[redcommander]

There's a proverb in Spanish: "Juancarlista but not Realista".

And I don't understand the problem with the uruguayan right being secular. This is one of the less religious countries in the world.

There's nothing wrong with it, I was just trying to make a little joke about how left wing it is which I guess fell flat. Isn't that ironic since Latin America is a very religious region of the world?

[redcommander]

There are lots of Republicans here... I am a republican, too. My father is, my mother, my teachers, my neighbors... I supoose about 60% of the people here are republican... what's the problem??

The left (republicans) love the King. I like Juan Carlos, too. we think he's a leftie guy, and a republican, too. we have a republican King, imagine!!! The right used to like him, but now they hate him, I see it when I talk to conservative people, and when I watch conservative channels xD


So, I think we will ask for Republic when the King dies. Communists and "Indignados" are already fighting for the Republic, but Socialists like me prefer to let the King die after a good life.
If Spain had to vote in "King elections" Juan Carlos would win in a landslide... so, what's the problem with him?? He's not expensive like the Queen of England, he doesn't like big Castles and Palaces.

I like him too, but just thought it was a little odd how much money the Prime Minister spends on maintaining all these Royal properties that the Royal Family doesn't want to live in. I guess Republicanism is more popular there then I thought. It just seems strange that there has not been successful efforts to put the question of a Republic on the ballot through a referendum like some countries have done. The King's personal popularity I guess is probably the reason like you said.

[redcommander]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

[redcommander]

Beautiful results. The wave of azul is just breathtaking.

[redcommander]

This looks to be the worst defeat for PSOE (carried only two by the looks)... even worse then 2000 (carried 6)... Looks like Sevilla and Barcelona are the only two Provinces (municipalities? whats the correct term?) to have always voted PSOE (PSC) since 1977...

The two regions only barely voted for PSOE this time around too.

[redcommander]

Some thougts, tomorrow more...:

-I'm also glad Uxue kept her seat.
-I'd have traded 1 PSOE seat for 1 seat for mr. Revilla.
-Zapatero is the most voted president in our history. Rajoy only won 1/2 million votes more than in 2008.
-I love Seville
-I love Barcelona
-Here in my city, at the north of Madrid (conservative areas) PP has got 49.5% of the vote. what does that mean? that we did a good campaign here
-Cordoba is more leftist than Seville. The problem is that its fukll of communists, who have stayed at home or voted IU.
-UPyD used to be a party full of intelligent people. Not anymore. Toni Canto is an idiot and the people who voted "magenta" didn't know what UPyD stands for.
-I can't understand how on earth UPyD got 10.5% of the vote in Sanse!! they didn't even manage to get 5% in May!! And there are lots of communists here (II-IU people)
-People in the right voted with their brain (small brain), not with their heart. I know lots of conservative people here in Madrid, and in Asturias, who love Cascos and hate Rajoy, but voted Rajoy.
-ETA won't come back never again. Amaiur leader is a good guy and will become a popular politicia for sure, so I expect them to continue growing.
-PSOE has to restart. I nominate Patxi López, but Carme Chacón and Eduardo Madina are good candidates for the general secretary position, too. Oh, if ANTONIO MIGUEL CARMONA DECIDES TO RUN, HERE HE HAS HIS MOST LOYAL SUPPORTER!
-Rubalcaba is not the looser of the night. Not even Zapatero. the looser is "PSOE" in general (myself included). We have a solid base (7 million votes) but our campaign was awful (I haven't heard about Gürtel this month). Also, we had the best candidate we could get, so RbCb is not to be blamed. Zapatero did all he could to save Spain, and we haven't been "rescued" like Greece, ireland or Portugal

How exactly did Zapatero save Spain? He racked up an even larger deficit than Aznar did, and didn't attempt to address unemployment before it reached Depression like levels. He then sold out his party's ideology and supporters by attempting a last minute austerity program which pissed off people even more. The only good thing for the PSOE was that he resigned before the election as they could have quite possibly received less than 100 seats with him at the helm. I would say considering the circumstances, Rubalcaba ran a decent campaign. At least he managed to contain the PSOE's polling free fall.

[redcommander]

Does anyone know if any ministers or cabinet officials lost their seats? Usually with a loss that big you would expect that to happen.