Spanish General Election 2011

[Antonio the Sixth]

Presidential ?

It's the wrong day for April fools, you know ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

President of Government is fine. Italy's head of government is called Presidente del Consiglio too, even though since the last decade Italians have started calling it "Premier" which means nothing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beat me.

Why should I ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beat me.

Why should I ?

It's past tense. You made the point about "Italy too" before I could.

Oh, ok. LOL

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, Zapatero is president, not prime minister... I'd call it Parliamentarian elections... but really, here in spain we talk about "elecciones presidenciales", not "elecciones del congreso", so I think it's fair to call them presidential elections... I know the name may be wrong, but if you ask here in spain if they vote for a candidate for president or if they're electing a new congress, more or less about 90% of people will answer they are voting for their new president.
The thing is, do you think PSOE will be able to recover??

So Spain is a parliamentary democracy in name only ? Too bad, they don't know how lucky they are not to live under a presidential autocracy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still, that's quite depressing to imagine that people, when they elect their MPs, say "I'm voting for Presidential elections !". But you're right, the executive's growing domination in parliamentary regimes is quite depressing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I've even heard Berlusconi called "Presidente" a couple of times too. Though our elections are "elezioni politiche" (which makes me wonder if other elections were supposed to be apolitical, LOL ).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

Here we thought the election would be very close... and as we know, every PP supporter votes on election day. the problem is that lots of socialists stay at home. zapatero would have lost if nationalists in catalunya and basque country hadn't voted for him (people were really afraid of a PP government).

But what I ask myself is why ? Wasn't everything going fine in Spain at that point ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

any polls ?

The KGB would hack them anyways.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, new polls:

CADENA SER:
PP 47%
PSOE 35%
IU 4.3%
CiU 3.5%
UPyD 1.5%
PNV 0.7%

Good to see that, I hope Spain can liberate herself from this crazy marxist idiot Zapatero this time around...

Hopefully the KGB will steal the election for the PSOE anyways.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting gap between the party vote and the personal vote... Quite funnily, a French-like presidential system would favor the PSOE, while it cost the French left two elections at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Be careful with "miraculous candidates", Julio... Sometimes they end up in a strange way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The discrepancy between party poll and personal poll is quite stunning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The discrepancy between party poll and personal poll is quite stunning.

Yes, it may be because Rubalcaba is the most popular politician in Spain (he and Chacon are the only ones who could be considered "popular") while Rajoy has always been hated by everyone.

But why doesn't his popularity translate on the party vote ? People know voting PP means getting Rajoy and voting PSOE means getting Rubalcaba, don't they ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The discrepancy between party poll and personal poll is quite stunning.

Yes, it may be because Rubalcaba is the most popular politician in Spain (he and Chacon are the only ones who could be considered "popular") while Rajoy has always been hated by everyone.

But why doesn't his popularity translate on the party vote ? People know voting PP means getting Rajoy and voting PSOE means getting Rubalcaba, don't they ?

Yes, but there's a good amount of people who probably don't know Rubalcaba won't be our candidate. Then, remember that IU voters prefer him over Rajoy, and even over Cayo Lara (IU's leader), but will vote IU anyways.
And then you have those CiU, ERC, PNV, BNG, CC, Na-Bai voters who say they'll vote for their parties... but then realize if they don't vote PSOE,  Rajoy will be president. And Rubalcaba is popular among nationalist voters, too. So, my theory is that they dislike PSOE, but Rubalcaba is OK for them.
A good example of that is my family in Catalunya. They always vote CiU. But they like Rubalcaba. If you ask them what party they'll vote, they'll answer: CiU.
But if the question is who would you vote if the election was Rajoy vs. Rubalcaba vs. lara vs. duran i lleida (ciu's leader)...? they would likely answer Rubalcaba.
And I'd bet my money they'll finally vote PSOE next year. Their vote was for Zapatero in 2008, too.

I hope you're right, that people will realize that either they vote strategically or they will get the fascists... But I'm pretty worried these numbers could hold...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the PP isn't even trying to look sane and moderate and is shooting itself in the foot by showing everyone it is 100 times worse than the PSOE ? That's certainly great news.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, I really didn't expect that move.

I'd like to be as optimist as Julio, but if the PSOE loses it will really be shame.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Please, everyone, don't post here unless you know exactly as much as Hash. I would say you can post if you know more but obviously no one has greater knowledge.

There's a difference between talking about something you don't know, and making bold assertions about things you don't know a damn about. A lot of American posters in this board do exactly that, and it's genuinely annoying.

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

The PP is the incarnation of everything regionalists fight against. 99% of nationalist voters would never ever vote for the PP, no matter what their views on economy are.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A lot of American posters in this board do exactly that, and it's genuinely annoying.

And when it comes to European posters talking about American elections...

The average European forumer knows far more about American politics than the average American forumer does about European politics. That's understandable, considering this is supposed to be a forum about American politics.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

Not stupid, but really pissed.

Pissed by PSOE's spending cuts, hence voting for PP ? This seems like the definition of stupidity.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

Not stupid, but really pissed.

Pissed by PSOE's spending cuts, hence voting for PP ? This seems like the definition of stupidity.

     Not necessarily. It makes sense if you think of it as a sort of message. Essentially, "do what we like or we will toss you out". Of course the officials in the PSOE are politicians just as much as officials in any other party, so, if they get the message, they will be much more concerned about not angering their supporters in the future.

I highly doubt the PP has the intention not to anger those who were angered by Zapatero's policies. The right knows how to implement universally loathed policies and still get reelected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That might make sense, but I'm sure those people will regret it by the first 3 months of a PP government.