Spanish General Election 2011

[Niemeyerite]

Polls show that Zapatero is the most hated president in the history of modern democracy in Spain. he's at 3.3/10 in the last CIS (best poll here in Spain).
 PP's president, Mariano Rajoy, who soundly lost to Zapatero in 2004 and 2008, leads him by an average of 13 points, but he's also hated by spanish people (latest CIS put him at 3.87/10).
In the lattest CIS, PP had 44.1% of the vote and PSOE 34%, but other polls show rajoy leading by 13, 15 or even 17 points.
The only politicians who Spanish really approve are vice-president Alfredo Perez-Rubalcaba (5.6/10) and Minister of Defense Carme Chacon (5.1/10).

We were expecting for a Zapatero announcement since last year. a majority of people thought he would not run again (me too). Today, he's officially announced he's not running again.
Rubalcaba is the most likely nominee, but PSOE might have primaries because Chacon has presidential ambitions and Jose Bono (president of the congress) too (Bono barely lost to Zapatero in 2000's primaries).

Polls also show that we prefer Rubalcaba or Chacon over Rajoy as president. That doesn't mean they're leading in polls (for the moment, there aren't any polls Chacon vs. Rajoy or Rajoy vs. Rubalcaba).

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/espana/Zapatero/voy/ser/candidato/proximas/elecciones/generales/elpepuesp/20110402elpepunac_2/Tes

http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/world/9124254/spanish-pm-says-will-not-stand-in-2012-elections/

I will campaign for Rubalcaba. I don't think Chacon will run against him because he's beloved by the base. But if it's rubalcaba vs. chacon, I may support her. I don't know.

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, Zapatero is president, not prime minister... I'd call it Parliamentarian elections... but really, here in spain we talk about "elecciones presidenciales", not "elecciones del congreso", so I think it's fair to call them presidential elections... I know the name may be wrong, but if you ask here in spain if they vote for a candidate for president or if they're electing a new congress, more or less about 90% of people will answer they are voting for their new president.
The thing is, do you think PSOE will be able to recover??

[Niemeyerite]

yes, zapatero is my Presidente, not my primer ministro hahaa... and here 99.99% of the people don't know who they're voting for =/.
I don't like this system, because nationalist such as CiU, which got 300,00 votes in 2008, have 10 seats in the congress, while Izquiera Unida had 1 million votes and only 2 seats.

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, I know a lot of people who identify theirselves as communists and only vote PSOE (over IU) because they're afraid their vote will be useless and PP will win. That happened in 2008, when PP was leading in polls...
look at CiU and PN: they are centre-right nationalist parties which always win regional elections. but more than 50% of their voters voted PSOE in 2008.

[Niemeyerite]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

[Niemeyerite]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

Here we thought the election would be very close... and as we know, every PP supporter votes on election day. the problem is that lots of socialists stay at home. zapatero would have lost if nationalists in catalunya and basque country hadn't voted for him (people were really afraid of a PP government).

[Niemeyerite]

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ?

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

Here we thought the election would be very close... and as we know, every PP supporter votes on election day. the problem is that lots of socialists stay at home. zapatero would have lost if nationalists in catalunya and basque country hadn't voted for him (people were really afraid of a PP government).

But what I ask myself is why ? Wasn't everything going fine in Spain at that point ?

the thing is that zapatero won in 2004 because of the irak war. many conservative people voted PSOE only to punish Aznar. remember than aznar won in a huge landslide in 2000.  zapatero lost that vote of punishment, so we thought rajoy could win.. but then, nationalists and communists helped us and zapatero was reelected. never before a president had received 11 million votes here.

[Niemeyerite]

Aznar wasn't running for reelection... but he chose who would replace him (PP hasn't got primaries). Rajoy was Aznar in 2004.

92% of Spanish were against the War in 2004... and after 11-M it was obvious that Irak was a fatal error. But elections happened on 14-M, and there's a law here in Spain that doesn't let polls to be published the last week before the election.. so we didn't know what was going on (but obviously everybody thought that would icrease Zapatero's chances of victory). but even before 11-M, zapatero and rajoy were tied in polls (rajoy was leading since the begining of the year, but zapatero was able to catch him in polls).

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, new polls:

CADENA SER:
PP 47%
PSOE 35%
IU 4.3%
CiU 3.5%
UPyD 1.5%
PNV 0.7%

Carme Chacon 45.8%
Mariano Rajoy 40%

Alfredo Perez-Rubalcaba 45%
Mariano Rajoy 40%

It must be the first time there's that difference between voting for a party and a candidate... I'm glad Chacon and Rubalcaba are leading.

[Niemeyerite]

Why is Rajoy still PP's PM candidate after losing two elections in a row?

He's the president of the party. and PP hasn't got primaries or "democratic" caucuses . Also, he's not as nutty as Esperanza Aguirre (leader of the most conservative wing of the party) and not as moderate as Gallardon (leader of the minoirity centre-right wing of the party, what's hilarious because Gallardo is the son of a Franquist minister)

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, new polls:

CADENA SER:
PP 47%
PSOE 35%
IU 4.3%
CiU 3.5%
UPyD 1.5%
PNV 0.7%

Good to see that, I hope Spain can liberate herself from this crazy marxist idiot Zapatero this time around...

LoL. I think he isn't socialist enough. But, you only saw what you wanted. Rajoy's behind the 2 most likely candidates

[Niemeyerite]

Publiscopio

without candidates:

PP 40.1 (-3.4)
PSOE 37.8 (+7.6)
IU 7.2 (-0.9)
UPyD 2.3 (-2.5)
CiU 3.9 (+0.2)
ERC 0.6 (=)
PNV 1.7 (-0.4)
BNG 1.3 (-0.2)

If Rubalcaba is PSOE's candidate:

PSOE 40.9%
PP 39.9%

Who would you prefer as President of Spain?

Rubalcaba 47.3%
Rajoy 31%

If Chacon is PSOE's candidate:

PSOE 40.6%
PP 39.7%

Who would you prefer as President of Spain?

Chacón 46.9%
Rajoy 30.5%

[Niemeyerite]

Interesting gap between the party vote and the personal vote... Quite funnily, a French-like presidential system would favor the PSOE, while it cost the French left two elections at least.

Yes, but the poll may be an outlier... IMO, PSOE is still triling by 5-6 points... the personal vote... I actually think Rubalcaba and Chacon tie Rajoy. they're the only popular politicians here in Spain (Javier Solana and Felipe Gonzalez don't count).

[Niemeyerite]

So, soon back to a balanced situation, as usual... ?

And with Rajoy again, the PP is heading towards another defeat, while they shouldn't lose in 2012...

After all, the French right may not be the stupidest of the world .

There's no democracy to elect PP's candidate... in any village, city, autonomic community or the whole country. that's why Rajoy is still PP's president. If PP had primaries, he would not get more than 20% of the vote, with a far-right candidate winning and a moderate candidate like Gallardon coming in 2nd place.
I'm glad PP is the stupidest conservative party of the world. that's why they have only been in government only 8 years while PSOE has governed 22 =)

[Niemeyerite]

CIS:

PP 43.8%
PSOE 33.4%

[Niemeyerite]

No new polls. But it's official: Rubalcaba will be our candidate. Chacon won't be running in the primaries, which are supposed to happen in september.
Rubalcaba has the support of every regional leader, the president and all the ministers. so, it's unlikely he'll have serious competition.

[Niemeyerite]

Be careful with "miraculous candidates", Julio... Sometimes they end up in a strange way.

rubalcaba won't have challenger, most likely. if someone wants to challenge him, that person will have to collect 22,000 signatures in the next 15 days. and for the moment, only one person has announced. a philosophy teacher who's also a musician and who took part in a TV programme. so, a joke of a candidate, as I said.

[Niemeyerite]

Toni's thinking of DSK.

yes, but DSK had challengers, rubalcaba will be running alone. and he's not an ambiguous politician, like DSK.

[Niemeyerite]

now that rubalcaba is the candidate... and if a miracle doesn't happen, will be the winner of our primaries... we have a new poll from "el periodico de catalunya", and likely we'll have new polls on sunday.

PERIÓDICO DE CATALUNYA:

PP 44% (-0.5%)
PSOE 35.3% (+4.3%)
IU 5.8%
UPyD 4.1%
CiU 3%
PNV 1.2%
ERC 0.7%
Others 5.9%

Who would you prefer as your President?

Rubalcaba 40.8%
Rajoy 35.4%

[Niemeyerite]

The discrepancy between party poll and personal poll is quite stunning.

Yes, it may be because Rubalcaba is the most popular politician in Spain (he and Chacon are the only ones who could be considered "popular") while Rajoy has always been hated by everyone.

[Niemeyerite]

The discrepancy between party poll and personal poll is quite stunning.

Yes, it may be because Rubalcaba is the most popular politician in Spain (he and Chacon are the only ones who could be considered "popular") while Rajoy has always been hated by everyone.

But why doesn't his popularity translate on the party vote ? People know voting PP means getting Rajoy and voting PSOE means getting Rubalcaba, don't they ?

Yes, but there's a good amount of people who probably don't know Rubalcaba won't be our candidate. Then, remember that IU voters prefer him over Rajoy, and even over Cayo Lara (IU's leader), but will vote IU anyways.
And then you have those CiU, ERC, PNV, BNG, CC, Na-Bai voters who say they'll vote for their parties... but then realize if they don't vote PSOE,  Rajoy will be president. And Rubalcaba is popular among nationalist voters, too. So, my theory is that they dislike PSOE, but Rubalcaba is OK for them.
A good example of that is my family in Catalunya. They always vote CiU. But they like Rubalcaba. If you ask them what party they'll vote, they'll answer: CiU.
But if the question is who would you vote if the election was Rajoy vs. Rubalcaba vs. lara vs. duran i lleida (ciu's leader)...? they would likely answer Rubalcaba.
And I'd bet my money they'll finally vote PSOE next year. Their vote was for Zapatero in 2008, too.

[Niemeyerite]

After PP won everything last week... things have been changing a lot.
First, Esperanza Aguirre cut the aides to the childhood books. Also, she has increased her salary (she said in her campaign she would not do that).
In Castilla La Mancha, PP's said the community is in bankruptcy, but that's obviously false. Books for school are free there, but Cospedal has said they won't be free anymore. and she's really unpopular.
Rajoy has said "we will have the welfare state we can have", cleary referring to cuts in the communities where they have won the Presidency. So, IMO, the election will be really close come 2012.

Remember that PP won the regional and local elections in 2007, but lost in 2008. The same could happen this time.

[Niemeyerite]

So the PP isn't even trying to look sane and moderate and is shooting itself in the foot by showing everyone it is 100 times worse than the PSOE ? That's certainly great news.

Spain is more conservative than France, or Italy or the UK. But here we have a conservative party which looses points in every general election campaign. It always happens. They could have thorwn Rajoy out and selected a new candidate, like Gallardon or Feijoo, and they would have won in 2008, and 2012 wouldn't be even close.

[Niemeyerite]

Aguirre the schoolbook snatcher...doesn't have the same ring to it.

hahaha... Aguirre should have lost this year... Javier Solana should have run =/ but I'm confident she'll loose in 2015. this year was PPslide and she still lost a lot of votes.

And today we have had some new polls... where PSOE is down 10 points (El Mundo) and 13.8 points (EL PAIS). but rubalcaba leads rajoy by 6 points in the two polls.

[Niemeyerite]

Aguirre the schoolbook snatcher...doesn't have the same ring to it.

Is that an Aguirre, the Wrath of God reference or am I seeing things?

It's surely a reference hahahaha...