Spanish General Election 2011

[Iannis]

There are lots of Republicans here... I am a republican, too. My father is, my mother, my teachers, my neighbors... I supoose about 60% of the people here are republican... what's the problem??

The left (republicans) love the King. I like Juan Carlos, too. we think he's a leftie guy, and a republican, too. we have a republican King, imagine!!! The right used to like him, but now they hate him, I see it when I talk to conservative people, and when I watch conservative channels xD


So, I think we will ask for Republic when the King dies. Communists and "Indignados" are already fighting for the Republic, but Socialists like me prefer to let the King die after a good life.
If Spain had to vote in "King elections" Juan Carlos would win in a landslide... so, what's the problem with him?? He's not expensive like the Queen of England, he doesn't like big Castles and Palaces.

I don't think that Felipe is so disliked, no? He could be a decent king in the future

[Iannis]

Mariano Rajoy isn´t fit to run an egg and spoon race... Though this clearly has never stopped people before, least of all in Spain.

I prefer him rather than Esperanza Aguirre.

So why not accept mediocrity?

Anyway, the PP is too a "Spanish" party in many ways to be comparable to any of the other western European conservative parties (this is to say nothing of its origins). It is actually comparable to the Republicans in that sense.

Of course the Republican Party isn't founded on fascism.

Well, but in short time to say that PP "was founded on fascism" will be like saying that US democratic party was founded on slavery and segregationism.

[Iannis]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

I doubt it. PSOE is polling above 30% right now, and "technocrats" here say PSOE is trailing by 9 points (so, experts say polls are biased because people is really angry and say they're not going to vote PSOE... and finally they WILL vote PSOE).

Felipe Gonzalez has said today he was trailing by 9 points in 1996, too, and lost by only 1 point. So, for him it's not impossible to win this. I'm not that optimistic, but I hope we get better results than expected.

Exactly - Gonzalez seemed to trail by 9, but lost only by 1. Rubalcaba seems to trail by 19, and will lose by only 9.
If those experts are right, and a lot of middling-soft PSOE support comes back.

trails by 19 in ELMUNDO polls... which are really biased.
I'd say he trails by 13, and people don't really think he's trailing by more than 10. This is Spain, we have bad pollsters, and 90% of them work for a political party, or support one candidate.

This is quite similar in Italy (center-right did far better than polls in last 2 general elections) and moreover people don't trust pollsters, don't answer, especially if their are supporters of a resigning government

[Iannis]

Couldn't Rubalcaba stay at the lead of the party ? After all, Rajoy lost twice before winning...

Yeah, but Rajoy never lost by a difference of 4 million votes and he wasn't a member of the most unpopular government ever.

Nobody intellectually honest can claim it was his fault, though.

Exactly that. everybody understands that if we lost by 16 points it was because we could not loose by less. Rubalcaba is the best candidate we had, and he made a decent campaign.


And scoopa, I doubt you're Spanish ("Sierra Nuerte", OMG! the typical error of a non-spanish).

And Rubalcaba didn't loose votes from the centre, he didn't manage to win upset votes in the left. That was the problem. 71% of the people voted this time, while 76% voted in 2008. Zapatero won 11 million votes, while Rajoy has only won 500000 votes more than in 2008. so, what does that mean? IMHO, socialists have stayed at home. The problem was not the centre
And I still can't understand HOW UPyD got 10% in my town. I expected IU to get a formidable result, and they LOST votes from 2008!!! And it's specially interesting considering that the composition of our "Ayuntamiento" is:

PP 14 concejales with 49% of the vote
PSOE 5 concejales with 19% of the vote
Izquierda Independiente (greens, commies and socialists) 5 concejales 17% of the vote
IU 1 concejal and 7% of the vote
UPyD 0 concejales and 4.85% of the vote

Results this Sunday were PP 49.5%, PSOE 26%, UPyD 10.5% and IU 8.5%.
I suppose what happened is that:
-A majority of PP voters still voted PP, and they won the support of some people who didn't vote in may.
-50% of II voters voted PSOE and, obviously, a huge majority of PSOE voters (may) voted PSOE
-IU voters voted IU and some of II voters too.
-UPyD managed to get their 5% of may voters and picked uo some PP support, and a minimal support from ex-PSOE voters.

I have to understand it as soon as possible, so I'll find out who voted UPyD here and why.

___________________________

And to those who claim ZP didn't save Spain, let me remind you...

1-Greece goes down the flames
2-BREAKING NEWS: Spain will come next.
3-Bye bye Ireland!
4-BREAKING NEWS: EIRE FAILS: SPAIN, YOU'RE THE NEXT!!
5-Oh, Portugal...
6-BREAKING NEWS: SPAIN CAN'T SURVIVE IF ITS NEIGHBOR HAS BEEN "RESCUED"
7-Here comesa Italy, which is at more risk  than Spain of being rescued!!

Zapatero did what he needed to. And he did so in May, 2010. Thanks, President!

Abstension rose only by 2%, not 5%, so abstension explains in minimal part the PSOE loss. PP gained votes also directly from PSOE, especially in Andalucia and Extremadura, where there were no local parties and the PP gain was huge. It's true that UPyD "stole" votes also to PP, especially in Madrid region and in the Valencia i.e, but PP didn't lost many votes because it also took them directly from PSOE.