2005: Predictions (Scotland only) Part II- COMPLETE!
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  2005: Predictions (Scotland only) Part II- COMPLETE!
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Author Topic: 2005: Predictions (Scotland only) Part II- COMPLETE!  (Read 2011 times)
afleitch
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« on: December 02, 2004, 11:20:10 AM »

Dundee East. SNP GAIN FROM LAB. Now even closer than it was before, expaanding north and east into SNP territory.

Dundee West. LAB HOLD

Dunfermline and East Fife. LAB HOLD. With Gordon Brown's seat wiped off the map, this is the seat he is most likely to take. May be targeted by fringe Black Watch/Anti-War candidates as a result, but solid Labour.

East Dunbartonshire. LAB HOLD. If this seat was in England it would have voted Tory right through to '97. It is not rock solid Labour, and has an independent MSP at Holyrood. If Labour become nationally unpopular, it could be a Lib Dem pickup

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow. LAB HOLD

East Lothian. LAB HOLD

East Renfewshire. LAB HOLD. Solid Tory until 1997. Labour MP Jim Murphy is popular and increased his majority in 2001

Edinburgh East. LAB HOLD.

Edinburgh North and Leith. LAB HOLD.

Edinburgh South. LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB. A Lib Dem target. They hold the seats equivalent in Holyrood. Tories and Nats will fall behind the Lib Dems to oust Labour.

Edinburgh South West. LAB HOLD

Edinburgh West. LIB DEM HOLD

Falkirk. LAB HOLD

Glasgow Central. LAB HOLD. Would have been George Galloway's seat if he hadn't...well you know.

Glasgow East. LAB HOLD

Glasgow North. LAB HOLD

Glasgow North East. SPEAKER HOLD. Michael Martin's seat.

Glasgow North West. LAB HOLD

Glasgow South. LAB HOLD

Glasgow South West. LAB HOLD....yawn.

Glenrothes. LAB HOLD.

Gordon. LIB DEM HOLD.

Inverclyde. LAB HOLD.

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Stathspey. LIB DEM GAIN FROM LAB. Another three-way seat between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP. Likely Lib Dem gain with even the slightest of swings.

Kilmarnock and Loudon. LAB HOLD. SNP may poll around 30% here, but dont expect it to flip till 2010.

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath. LAB HOLD.

Lanark and Hamilton East. LAB HOLD.

Linlithgow and East Falkirk. LAB HOLD. Tam Dalyell's old seat. Old Tam is stepping down I think- COULD...and i mean could go the way of Tony Benn's old seat and flip against the traditional paty. Could be an SNP gain. One to watch.

Livingston. LAB HOLD. Robin Cook's stomping ground. SSP won't field a candidate here. He may increase his majority percentage wise.

Midlothian. LAB HOLD

Moray. SNP HOLD. Pronounced 'Murray' Wink If the SNP go into meltdown and Labour can't pick up here (Labour has been eyeing it for years) it could be a suprise Tory gain if their candidate runs on local issues. One to watch.

Motherwell and Wishaw. LAB HOLD. May be Dr John Reid's new seat.

Na h'Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles). SNP GAIN FROM LAB. Why this seat is Labour anyway beggars belief. SNP took it in 1987 and really want it back.

North Ayrshire and Arran. LAB HOLD.

North East Fife. LIB DEM HOLD. Menzies Campbell's seat.

Ochil and South Perthshire. SNP GAIN FROM LAB. Labour marginal, once a Tory stronghold. SNP will take it simply because of turnout.

Orkney and Shetland. LIB DEM HOLD. Hell will freeze over before this frosty and most northerly constituency in the UK votes anything other than Liberal.

Paisley and Renfrewshire North. LAB HOLD. If Labour go into meltdown, the SNP will pick up the spoils.

Paisley and Renfrewshire South. LAB HOLD.

Perth and North Perthshire. CON GAIN FROM SNP. Why not just call this seat Perth!!! Anyways, new boundaries make it safer for the SNP than it was back in 2001, but I don't think they will hold up here. I'm a frequent visitor to Perth- the Tories are on an upward swing. One to Watch.

Ross, Skye and Lochaber. LIB DEM HOLD. Leader Charles Kennedy's winswept and sheep ridden seat. Expect him to increase his majority.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West. LAB HOLD. My home seat. We are up in arms over splitting us from our close neighbours Hamilton and handing us over to Rutherglen. The most northerly part of this seat is little over 2 miles away from the city centre of Glasgow.

Stirling. LAB HOLD. This former Tory seat (that used to back Labour in the 60's and 70's) is becoming safe Labour territory. Even if Labour collapse, without tactical voting, this seat will remain in their hands.

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. LIB DEM HOLD. The Tories want this back. It won't happen.

West Dunbartonshire. LAB HOLD.









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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2004, 04:46:08 PM »

Dundee East. SNP GAIN FROM LAB. Now even closer than it was before, expaanding north and east into SNP territory.

This is traditional SNP territory... they held it from '74 until '87 (I think...), they'll target it like mad methinks

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I think Brown might run in another seat (see below)

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Heard a rumour that Reid might run here

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I *think* Brown will run here... IIRC he's from Kirkcaldy originally and I think most of the "Little Moscows" from his old seat have been put here.

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Tends to vote "person over party"... Labour should hold it, but it might be close.

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A seat the Tories should never have lost in the first place
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afleitch
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2004, 04:58:14 PM »

Thanks Al. Courteous as always Smiley and an Evan Bayh fan to boot!
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2004, 02:04:06 PM »

The new Edinburgh names confuse me somewhat...South is somewhat along the lines of the old Pentlands and SW along the lines of the old South or what?
My three weeks in Enbra, I lived in a house right on the border of Central and South, but in Central. Smiley
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