NH-PPP: 4/5/11 Birther-ism a winning message?

[Bull Moose Base]

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[Niemeyerite]

wow!! so maybe I was right when I said trump could pick 15% of the vote there =).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The poll is out. They did a number of ballot tests:

The lot of them:

Mitt Romney.................................................... 31%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 15%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 13%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 10%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 10%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 4%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 4%
Haley Barbour................................................. 2%

Without Huckabee:

Mitt Romney.................................................... 37%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 14%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 14%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 13%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 5%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 4%
Haley Barbour................................................. 2%

Without Palin:

Mitt Romney.................................................... 35%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 14%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 13%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 13%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 7%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 6%
Haley Barbour................................................. 2%

Without Huckabee *or* Palin:

Mitt Romney.................................................... 40%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 18%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 17%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 8%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 5%
Haley Barbour................................................. 3%

Without Barbour, with Giuliani:

Mitt Romney.................................................... 29%
Rudy Giuliani .................................................. 17%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 12%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 11%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 9%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 6%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 5%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 5%

With Trump:

Mitt Romney.................................................... 27%
Donald Trump ................................................. 21%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 12%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 12%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 9%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 7%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 4%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 3%

[Niemeyerite]

so, run, donald, run!!!! It will be very funny to see him winning NH over romney =) (I think if palin and huck don't run, the primary will be a romney-trump tie).

[Bull Moose Base]

Anyone who isn't rooting for Bachmann winning Iowa, Trump winning NH and those two going the rest of the way is a bad person.  But all this poll really tells me is that New Hampshire doesn't know most of the candidates and is not into religion or Giuliani.

[Iosif]

Trump/Bachmann 2012

Now that's a winning ticket.

[tpfkaw]

Ron Paul in 2nd w/o Palin or Huckster?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump/Bachmann 2012

Now that's a winning ticket.

For everybody but Republicans.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'm going to call Buddy Roemer, if he doesnt drop out by the time I finish this post, finishes top 13 in New Hampshire.

Do you think Obama born in the USA?  42 No, 35 Yes
Would you vote for someone who passed state mandates? 14 Yes, 61 No
Mitch Daniels favorables. 14 favorable 11 unfavorable

[California8429]

Wow Paul in a possible 2nd. I also say Giuliani polling in the high teens in Florida today!

I guess he isn't as out of touch with Republican politics as everyone thinks. He'd be fun to have in the race

[Mr. Morden]

Among those who say Obama was born in the USA:

Romney 34%
Trump 17%
Paul 12%
Huckabee 9%
Gingrich 7%
Palin 5%
Bachmann 4%
Pawlenty 3%

Among those who say he wasn't born in the USA:

Trump 22%
Romney 21%
Gingrich 16%
Huckabee 13%
Palin 9%
Paul 7%
Bachmann 3%
Pawlenty 3%

Trump also leads among self-described Tea Party supporters, those who say they would be unwilling to vote for a candidate who supported a health care mandate, and voters age 45 and younger.  He's tied with Huckabee among those who describe themselves as "very conservative".  The amusing thing is that his overall favorability rating among GOP primary voters is underwater.

Favorability / unfavorability among GOP primary voters:

Gingrich 45 / 36%
Huckabee 48 / 36%
Palin 51 / 39%
Romney 68 / 19%
Trump 41 / 43%
Bachmann 38 / 18%
Barbour 24 / 16%
Paul 53 / 21%
Pawlenty 34 / 14%
Santorum 30 / 17%
Cain 9 / 13%
Giuliani 62 / 22%
Daniels 14 / 11%
Huntsman 8 / 13%

So yeah, Trump's favorability with GOP primary voters in NH is poor, but those who like him are highly likely to say they'll vote for him, which is how he gets 2nd place.  The favorability #s for other candidates also show how strange NH Republicans are compared to other states.  Where else is Huckabee's unfavorability higher than Paul's, and nearly double that of Romney's?

[Yelnoc]

Trump/Bachmann 2012

Now that's a winning ticket.

God have mercy on our souls.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Strange demographics. Paul in 2nd without Palin or Huck? Trump in 2nd otherwise, despite having a higher disapproval then approval rating? Giuliani and Paul being the most favourably viewed?

Huh. I thought I might be onto something with Trump abusing birther sentiment, but he is doing fine among non-birthers too, so go figure. The only regular feature about this poll I noticed was Paul doing well with indies (as he seems apt to do) and doing (generally) more poorly with women.

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani and Paul being the most favourably viewed?

Actually, Romney is the most favorably viewed, with Giuliani and Paul 2nd and 3rd.

It's New Hampshire.  Huckabee and Palin have always polled pretty poorly here.  (Though this is the first poll I remember seeing from any state with Huck having such a high unfavorable number among GOP primary voters.)

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I hope Rudy jumps in! With a different campaign team!

[Brittain33]

Trump is the political equivalent of Charlie Sheen, only cynical instead of crazy.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I hope Rudy jumps in! With a different campaign team!

Rudy has absolutely no chance of achieving anything outside of a handful of states. Plus, he is a one trick pony (9/11!) and that trick is very old by now.

[Gustaf]

I like how dropping Palin leads to Huckabee losing support.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I like how dropping Palin leads to Huckabee losing support.

     It's also no net change for Gingrich, but it leads to Paul gaining 3% & Pawlenty gaining 2%.

[Bull Moose Base]

Giuliani should run and pretend he's pro-life.  The conservative wing will likely put forward an unelectable nut  and his main competition for moderate wing is guy who passed obamacare/fakes being pro-life.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If he just didn't campaign, Rudy would be fine.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If he just didn't campaign, Rudy would be fine.

It didn't work for him in 2008.

[Associate Justice PiT]

If he just didn't campaign, Rudy would be fine.

It didn't work for him in 2008.

     Nothing did. When he campaigned, he lost ground. When he didn't campaign, he still lost ground. When he retreated to Florida, Florida dumped him & voted for McCain. Giuliani made some serious mistakes, though at the end of the day he just didn't have much of a chance.

[King]

Giuliani polling in the high teens in Florida today!

Not surprising, he spent his entire campaign fund in 2008 taking every Florida registered voter out to dinner.  They know him well.