English local elections 2011

[Phony Moderate]

I don't think there's a thread on these yet so....

The rumour that has been doing the rounds in the last few hours is that the Lib Dems are not going to bother putting up candidates in hundreds of Tory-held seats. Not particularly suprising....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, there is no such thread yet. So this shall be the official one.

Anyways, up this year are a third of seats in all of the MBC/MDC's and the UAs that go in thirds as well, most of the UAs that are based on large towns and which have all-out elections, and almost all District councils, including all that have all-out elections. There are also Mayoral elections in a couple of places.

As a very quick overview (something better some other time), unless something extraordinary happens the natural order of things is going to return to Sheffield, which will get a lot of attention for obvious reasons, and also Newcastle. The minority Labour administration in Leeds will probably gain a majority, and if Labour has a very good night it is possible that Birmingham (always the biggest prize in municipal politics) will fall. The situation in the Districts is unusually fluid; the LibDem polling collapse and the possible (probable?) ending of their status as an anti-Tory vote-park in certain areas means that many Districts are essentially unpredictable, which may be fun. Meanwhile, yet another attempt to hit the reboot button in Stoke doth loom.

[Leftbehind]

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Obviously there are all sorts of complications for polling local elections, but these figures don't look too far from the truth.

@C. Monty Burns
I'm baffled by your political matrix and your apparent support for social democrats?

[Phony Moderate]

I love blatant irony.

[Leftbehind]

OIC.

So you are a lolbertarian?

[Phony Moderate]

Something like that.

[YL]

As a very quick overview (something better some other time), unless something extraordinary happens the natural order of things is going to return to Sheffield, which will get a lot of attention for obvious reasons, and also Newcastle.

I think the question in Sheffield is not whether Labour will regain control, but by how much, and whether the Lib Dems can hold their losses to the places they might have expected to lose if they had a bad year anyway or whether it'll be worse than that.

If that Ashcroft poll from a few months ago showing a 17% LD to Lab swing in Hallam since May 2010 is actually accurate, applies to the council elections as well, and the swing is uniform across the constituency (three big assumptions there) then Labour would take Stannington and Crookes, and the Tories would probably regain a foothold on the Council in Dore & Totley.  That's probably pretty much a worst-case scenario for the Lib Dems: losing Ecclesall or Fulwood is surely unthinkable.

[You kip if you want to...]

Predictions? I'm not really 'up' on local politics, but i'll have a go.

Labour +900
Tory -400
Liberal -500

[YL]

Predictions? I'm not really 'up' on local politics, but i'll have a go.

Labour +900
Tory -400
Liberal -500

I know the media like to talk about the results in this way, but I don't think it's a very good one: it completely ignores the differences in size between the wards involved.  Councillors in big Metropolitan Boroughs (Brum being the most extreme case) can represent three to four times as many voters as those in shire districts.

It'd be more interesting to look at predictions for individual councils, but to do a good job probably needs local knowledge.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very true. Using extreme examples to show up the general problem, West Somerset DC has only a few thousand more residents than the Sparkbrook ward in Birmingham. So, yeah. And the disparity has become more extreme since Durham went unitary.

[Peter]

South Oxfordshire
ALL seats up for election (last election 2007)
For those of you that don't know, I now live in a rural Oxfordshire village!

Conservative - 38
LD - 6
Lab - 1
Others - 3



Whilst the overall result should be little in doubt (CON hold), it will represent some of the probable national trends. Any Labour surge will be represented in Didcot (West of the council) - I would expect them to sweep 3 of the 4 wards. It will also be interesting to see what will happen in Thame which has traditionally been a LD v. Tory town. Also interesting to note that a few LD activists are fighting their wards as Independents here.

[afleitch]

Rallings and Thrasher have posted their 'national equivalent vote share' prediction for the locals.

In 2007 this was CON 40, LAB 26, LIB 24
They put this year (based on by-election results) at LAB 38, CON 34-38, LIB 16-22

[bullmoose88]

Rallings and Thrasher have posted their 'national equivalent vote share' prediction for the locals.

In 2007 this was CON 40, LAB 26, LIB 24
They put this year (based on by-election results) at LAB 38, CON 34-38, LIB 16-22

How many councillors/councils can Labour expect to get this time, now that theyre going to get a boost from being the opposition?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You have to take that on a case by case basis. I'm going to attempt a brief analysis council-by-council if I get the time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Rallings and Thrasher have posted their 'national equivalent vote share' prediction for the locals.

In 2007 this was CON 40, LAB 26, LIB 24
They put this year (based on by-election results) at LAB 38, CON 34-38, LIB 16-22

I can't see the Liberals hitting 22%...

[joevsimp]

South Oxfordshire
ALL seats up for election (last election 2007)
For those of you that don't know, I now live in a rural Oxfordshire village!

Conservative - 38
LD - 6
Lab - 1
Others - 3

Whilst the overall result should be little in doubt (CON hold), it will represent some of the probable national trends. Any Labour surge will be represented in Didcot (West of the council) - I would expect them to sweep 3 of the 4 wards. It will also be interesting to see what will happen in Thame which has traditionally been a LD v. Tory town. Also interesting to note that a few LD activists are fighting their wards as Independents here.

Yay, another one, I've just moved to Didcot! From Brighton so a much less interesting election for me (I'll do my attempt at a bit of analysis there on Sunday if no-one beats me to it)


As for South Ox, I really don't know much, but I can see Labour having a complete landslide of the seats in Didcot, but at the same time can see them losing out to the Tories in Ladygrove and All Saints, and possibly the independent candidate in Northbourne (who I'll be backing, not having any Green candidates to vote for provide free labour to

on that topic, there's a smattering of Greens elsewhere, but I can't really see them doing anything other than ensuring the LDs loose out

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Bolton.  Currently Lab 30 C 21 LD 7+1 vacancy Astley Bridge First 1.  Labour hold half the seats and need just one gain for an overall majority.

2007 results:


ASTLEY BRIDGE is normally a solid Conservative ward, but the sitting councillor has formed his own outfit called Astley Bridge First after being deselected.  For what it's worth, my quiz team plays out of this ward's Conservative club.

BRADSHAW, BROMLEY CROSS and HEATON WITH LOSTOCK are three of the safest Tory wards in the whole of Greater Manchester.  In 2008 the Conservatives polled more than 70% in Heaton.

SMITHILLS was the only ward the Lib Dems won last year, and that was a regain after their councillor defected to Labour.  He ran for re-election and did well to take second place from the Conservatives.  On the 2010 result it looks just about winnable for Labour but Labour have never won here and the ward has elected Lib Dems since about 1989.

HALLIWELL, CROMPTON, TONGE WITH THE HAULGH, GREAT LEVER and RUMWORTH cover inner Bolton.  Some of these wards had weird results in 2004 (the Lib Dems winning Crompton, the Tories winning seats in Great Lever) but Labour have reasserted their dominance as the Iraq war fades into the past.  All these wards apart from Tonge have a significant Muslim population (particularly Rumworth).

BREIGHTMET and LITTLE LEVER AND DARCY LEVER are basically white working-class areas.  Breightmet has a nasty reputation but does have some nice bits in addition to the dodgy bits, while Little Lever used to be an urban district of its own.  The Tories won both wards in 2008; last year Labour were well ahead in Breightmet but Little Lever was quite close, mainly because the defending Labour councillor stood as an independent and polled 17%.

KEARSLEY was safe Labour in 2010 but in previous years was a Labour/LD marginal.  In 2007 this ward had the closest result, the Lib Dems prevailing by 27 votes.

FARNWORTH and its twin ward HARPER GREEN are very safe for Labour.  HULTON is a divided ward between middle-class (and very Tory) Over Hulton and more working-class Deane on the outskirts of Bolton; on th 2007 results its looks winnable for Labour but it swung to the Conservatives last year as their re-elected councillor was also their general election candidate for Bolton South East.

The two WESTHOUGHTON wards were three-way marginals even in 2010, with Labour gaining South from the Lib Dems and the Conservatives holding North.  Anything could happen here.

HORWICH AND BLACKROD has become a Tory/Labour marginal with a significant Lib Dem vote.  Labour picked up the seat last year for the first time.

Finally, HORWICH NORTH EAST was the shock result of the 2010 election.  Despite the name this ward covers most of Horwich and is normally a Lib Dem banker with Labour running third, but 2010 saw a very even three-way split with Labour prevailing by 90 votes over the Lib Dems and the Tories just 183 votes further back.  Both remaining Lib Dem seats are up as the two remaining councillors (who are husband and wife) are standing down.

PREDICTIONS: Labour to gain Kearsley from the Lib Dems and Horwich/Blackrod and Westhoughton North from the Conservatives.  Conservatives to regain Astley Bridge making the council Lab 33 C 20 LD 7.

[joevsimp]

Brighton and Hove


can't post links yet I'll upload my map once I can

North Portslade, 1 Lab, 1 con
South Portslade, as above

Must win seats for labour, regaining the two seats lost in 2007 is a critical priority but shouldn't be too taxing.

Hangleton and Knoll, 3 con

Has been labour held recently, and is a major target for recovery, bpb reckons its heading for a split though, with Tories holding on to one seat. There is also a former Tory-independent in the running to complicate matters

Wish 2 con

Western Hove/Aldrington, reasonably safe, but could go to labour on a very bad night for the tories

Westbourne, 2 con

the eastern part of the pre '74 aldrington district, fairly safe, but has been designated a "cardboard " target by the greens (ie, one up from being paper candidates), they will probably only win if momentum catapaults them into a majority.

Central Hove, 2 Con

Like Westbourne, has been designated by Greens as having "cardboard" candidates, which means its less likely to fall this time as resources are ploughed into two unwinnable wards in the north of Caroline Lucas' constituency instead, still one to watch out for as the Lib Dem slump puts Labour in the running as well.

Brunswick and Adilade, 1 LD, 1 ex-LD

Apart from the two wards where they hold 1/3 seats, this is the top target for the greens, and even though the former ld cllr and two-time parliamentary candidate is standing, two relatively simple gains for the greens are the most likely outcome
 
Goldsmid, 1 con 1 grn 1 lab

The Greens’ first seat in hove is a prime target, second only to Preston Park, the greens should gain the remaining tory seat after their by election win two years ago, but Labour, could however, hold onto their seat

Hove Park, formerly known as Stanford, 1 ind, 1 con

the minority tory administration has been propped up by the independent cllr's vote since losing its majority in the private eye-induced Goldsmid by-election in 2009 (actually thats a lie, its been dependent on Labour sitting on their hands at times) ultra safe for the Tories, with normal service being restored by the independent cllr standing down

Withdean, 3 con, Has been designated a target ward by the greens, purely for being in Caroline Lucas's constituency, but will stay blue till judgement day.

Patcham and Hollingbury, 3 con

As above but labour could pick up one seat out of three, something they'll probably need to do in order to come out on top if they can't turn back the green tide in the centre of the city.

Hollingdean and Stanmer 3 lab

Contains the Sussex University campus as well as estates like Coldean and the Bates estate. Likely gains by the Greens, but likely to split with at least one labour cllr holding on

Preston Park, 1 Green, 2 Lab

The greens gained a seat here in 2003, but failed to improve on it in 2007, historically a champagne socialist area, could go either way

Saint Peter’s and North Laine, 3 green

The first ward to fall to the Greens, recent by election was won on 60% of the vote

Regency, 2 green

Gained from the Lib Dems in 2007 but shouldn’t be too difficult for the greens to hold unless Labour really pull something out of the bag

Hannover and Elm Grove, 3 green

Second safest ward for the greens, large student population and also known as “muesli mountain”

Queens Park, 3 grn

There is a potential for Labour to regain some  or all of the seats they lost in 2007, as this was a personal backlash against the ruling clique of the Labour administration.  Contains the bulk of fabulous Kemptown, but also areas of council housing, as well as the job centre, police station and county court all next to eachother.

East Brighton 3 Lab

Should be safe, Tories and Greens might run have them close if they were still in power at westminster

Moulsecoomb and Bevendean, 2 Lab, 1 Con

Tories gained a seat in 2007, unlikely for them to gain other two, another “cardboard” for the Greens and could end up split three ways, three labour cllrs is most likely though

Woodingdean, 2 con

A separate town that has clear green space on all sides, any change would probably give the two tory candidates and the returning officer heart attacks

Rottingdean Costal. 3 con

As above but includes the marina and a bit of what should probably be in the East Brighton ward


Phew.

I think that the most likely outcome is a Baden-Wuttemburg scenario, but I have doubts about the local Labour party’s willingness to enter a green-led coalition. I’m not going to attempt a more in-depth prediction, Instead, I’ll provide a map of how things would probably look if the LDs crash out and the other three parties split equally, 18 seats each

[You kip if you want to...]

How are the Greens looking down in Brighton and Norwich? I know they'll probably lose their ward over the Mersey in Liverpool.

[Serenity Now]

Brighton and Hove


can't post links yet I'll upload my map once I can

North Portslade, 1 Lab, 1 con
South Portslade, as above

Must win seats for labour, regaining the two seats lost in 2007 is a critical priority but shouldn't be too taxing.

Hangleton and Knoll, 3 con

Has been labour held recently, and is a major target for recovery, bpb reckons its heading for a split though, with Tories holding on to one seat. There is also a former Tory-independent in the running to complicate matters

Wish 2 con

Western Hove/Aldrington, reasonably safe, but could go to labour on a very bad night for the tories

Westbourne, 2 con

the eastern part of the pre '74 aldrington district, fairly safe, but has been designated a "cardboard " target by the greens (ie, one up from being paper candidates), they will probably only win if momentum catapaults them into a majority.

Central Hove, 2 Con

Like Westbourne, has been designated by Greens as having "cardboard" candidates, which means its less likely to fall this time as resources are ploughed into two unwinnable wards in the north of Caroline Lucas' constituency instead, still one to watch out for as the Lib Dem slump puts Labour in the running as well.

Brunswick and Adilade, 1 LD, 1 ex-LD

Apart from the two wards where they hold 1/3 seats, this is the top target for the greens, and even though the former ld cllr and two-time parliamentary candidate is standing, two relatively simple gains for the greens are the most likely outcome
 
Goldsmid, 1 con 1 grn 1 lab

The Greens’ first seat in hove is a prime target, second only to Preston Park, the greens should gain the remaining tory seat after their by election win two years ago, but Labour, could however, hold onto their seat

Hove Park, formerly known as Stanford, 1 ind, 1 con

the minority tory administration has been propped up by the independent cllr's vote since losing its majority in the private eye-induced Goldsmid by-election in 2009 (actually thats a lie, its been dependent on Labour sitting on their hands at times) ultra safe for the Tories, with normal service being restored by the independent cllr standing down

Withdean, 3 con, Has been designated a target ward by the greens, purely for being in Caroline Lucas's constituency, but will stay blue till judgement day.

Patcham and Hollingbury, 3 con

As above but labour could pick up one seat out of three, something they'll probably need to do in order to come out on top if they can't turn back the green tide in the centre of the city.

Hollingdean and Stanmer 3 lab

Contains the Sussex University campus as well as estates like Coldean and the Bates estate. Likely gains by the Greens, but likely to split with at least one labour cllr holding on

Preston Park, 1 Green, 2 Lab

The greens gained a seat here in 2003, but failed to improve on it in 2007, historically a champagne socialist area, could go either way

Saint Peter’s and North Laine, 3 green

The first ward to fall to the Greens, recent by election was won on 60% of the vote

Regency, 2 green

Gained from the Lib Dems in 2007 but shouldn’t be too difficult for the greens to hold unless Labour really pull something out of the bag

Hannover and Elm Grove, 3 green

Second safest ward for the greens, large student population and also known as “muesli mountain”

Queens Park, 3 grn

There is a potential for Labour to regain some  or all of the seats they lost in 2007, as this was a personal backlash against the ruling clique of the Labour administration.  Contains the bulk of fabulous Kemptown, but also areas of council housing, as well as the job centre, police station and county court all next to eachother.

East Brighton 3 Lab

Should be safe, Tories and Greens might run have them close if they were still in power at westminster

Moulsecoomb and Bevendean, 2 Lab, 1 Con

Tories gained a seat in 2007, unlikely for them to gain other two, another “cardboard” for the Greens and could end up split three ways, three labour cllrs is most likely though

Woodingdean, 2 con

A separate town that has clear green space on all sides, any change would probably give the two tory candidates and the returning officer heart attacks

Rottingdean Costal. 3 con

As above but includes the marina and a bit of what should probably be in the East Brighton ward


Phew.

I think that the most likely outcome is a Baden-Wuttemburg scenario, but I have doubts about the local Labour party’s willingness to enter a green-led coalition. I’m not going to attempt a more in-depth prediction, Instead, I’ll provide a map of how things would probably look if the LDs crash out and the other three parties split equally, 18 seats each

Welcome to the forum joevsimp! I'm also from Brighton.

Incidentally, here's a map I made of the 2007 results for Brighton and Hove:


Brighton and Hove 2007

[YL]

Sheffield: map from 2007 on Andrew Teale's website.  In 2010 Labour won Central, East Ecclesfield, Gleadless Valley and Hillsborough in addition to what they won in 2007, with other wards as before.

The Council is Lib Dem 41, Labour 40, Green 2, Ind (elected as LD) 1, with a minority Lib Dem administration.  One councillor (in Walkley) defected from LD to Lab after the coalition was formed last year.

Historically Sheffield was strongly Labour with a small Tory presence in the western suburbs and some Liberals/Lib Dems in the northern parishes added to the city in 1974.  In the 1990s the Tories collapsed (and have never recovered) and Labour had some local problems, both of which let the Lib Dems in, and the city went yellow in 1999.  Labour ran it again from 2002 to 2008 but a combination of national and local (particularly affecting Hillsborough) issues saw the Lib Dems take it back in 2008, although their majority didn't last long.

There are 28 wards, each with three councillors.  Each ward has one seat (the one last contested in 2007) up for election this year, for a four-year term.  (This is the usual system in Metropolitan Boroughs.)

The following 11 wards, all in the east and north of the city, have never elected a non-Labour councillor under the current boundaries: Arbourthorne, Beighton, Birley, Burngreave, Darnall, Firth Park, Manor Castle, Richmond, Shiregreen & Brightside, Southey, Woodhouse.  This isn't likely to change this year; any interest in these wards will probably be in who comes second; maybe TUSC in Burngreave (where their candidate has done so in the past under various labels).

Mosborough, also in the east, would be in the previous list if the Lib Dems hadn't won it in 2008, and I doubt they'll repeat that this year.  That's all the wards Labour are defending.

I'd group the remaining, mostly western, wards as follows:

Northern parishes: East Ecclesfield, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, West Ecclesfield and to some extent Stannington.  These cover the parishes of Stocksbridge, Ecclesfield and Bradfield added to Sheffield in 1974, and have been generally Lib Dem.  East Ecclesfield contains an area outside Ecclesfield parish which is more like the Labour wards to the south, and that partially explains Labour winning it in 2010.  The Lib Dem vote in these wards is more independent of the national party than it is further south (they have never really looked like winning a parliamentary seat on the basis of it, in spite of the area being more than half of a constituency) so might be a bit more robust: I'm guessing that Labour will repeat their 2010 East Ecclesfield gain but the Lib Dems will hold the other seats.

Inner west: Broomhill, Nether Edge, Walkley.  The Lib Dems are defending all of these, and the national picture makes them look vulnerable.  Broomhill in particular, which probably looked the safest of the three before last year, is dominated by the University and hospitals and has a lot of students.  There could be a strong Green challenge in Broomhill, but I think the other two will go Labour.

Hallam: Crookes, Dore & Totley, Ecclesall, Fulwood, Stannington, grouped because they're the wards in Clegg's seat (though Stannington  doesn't really belong).  The inner parts of Crookes, Ecclesall and Fulwood have a lot in common with the inner west above; the further out parts are wealthy suburbs, and the whole area is generally well-off.  Dore & Totley is the most likely area in Sheffield to vote Tory, but hasn't done so in a Council election since 2004, hence the current lack of Tory representation on the Council.  I'm expecting big anti-Clegg swings to Labour and the Greens, especially in the inner areas, but they'd have to be immense to let any seats change hands (and an LD to Lab swing in Dore just gives the Tories the seat anyway) so I'm guessing all seats will be Lib Dem holds.

Beauchief & Greenhill and Graves Park in the south of the city.  These are mostly fairly middle class suburbs, but the former also includes some rather grim estates on the southern fringe of the city (Lowedges and Batemoor).  Both are Lib Dem and have always been so under current boundaries.  Beauchief & Greenhill looks quite vulnerable and Graves Park less so, and I'm guessing the former will fall to Labour but the latter will stay yellow.

Hillsborough is a bit like the inner west but is more Labour.  The Labour losses here in 2007 and 2008 had a lot to do with an unpopular school closure (note how much worse they did compared with previous years than anywhere else in the city).  I think that issue has faded a little and I'm expecting a Labour gain.

Gleadless Valley is a natural marginal, made up of a mix of inner west type areas like Meersbrook and 1960s estates like Hemsworth and Herdings, and has generally been very close and gone to whichever party wins more wards city-wide.  Again, I'd expect a Labour gain.

Central has a weird history: 2004 (3 seats up) Lab/Green/LD elected, 2006 Green gain from LD (LD third), 2007 Green hold (LD third), 2008 Green gain from Lab (LD third), 2010 Lab gain from Green (LD second, Green third).  I think the General Election had something to do with 2010, and their defending councillor is quite well known, so the Greens may have a chance of holding on, but they never won it by very much even when Labour were nationally unpopular, so I'm leaning towards a Labour gain here too.

That (giving the Greens Broomhill but Labour Central) would give, for the seats contested this year, Labour 19 (up 7), Lib Dem 8 (down 7), Green 1 (no change); the Council would be Lab 47, Lib Dem 34, Green 2, Ind 1.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Historically Sheffield was strongly Labour with a small Tory presence in the western suburbs and some Liberals/Lib Dems in the northern parishes added to the city in 1974.

Unless my memory is playing tricks it was the first big city to have a Labour majority on the council; partly because of its economic structure (domination by the steel industry meaning greater polarisation and, also, an unusually homogeneous working class with strong unions with a reputation for militancy) but also, IIRC, because the Liberals were very weak in the city.

There was also an attempt to take over city institutions by some working class radical group in the nineteenth century; the Sheffield Democrats, or something like that.

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They came very close to beating Martin Flannery in the re-drawn Sheffield Hillsborough in '83, but then he made Tony Benn look like David Owen.

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Ah; I did wonder about that at the time.

[You kip if you want to...]

I wonder what the wards which make up the Hallam constituency will look like...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder what the wards which make up the Hallam constituency will look like...

Going to be hard to attack them from the left, unfortunately. Sheffield is a very polarised city (always has been) and Hallam is the posh bit.

[YL]

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They came very close to beating Martin Flannery in the re-drawn Sheffield Hillsborough in '83, but then he made Tony Benn look like David Owen.

Yes, I'd forgotten that, but it was against Labour in 1983, and they still couldn't win.  They didn't even try in Penistone & Stocksbridge last year as far as I could tell, even though they've been known to top the poll within its boundaries in local elections in spite of their uselessness in Barnsley borough.