English local elections 2011

[You kip if you want to...]

Predictions? I'm not really 'up' on local politics, but i'll have a go.

Labour +900
Tory -400
Liberal -500

[You kip if you want to...]

Rallings and Thrasher have posted their 'national equivalent vote share' prediction for the locals.

In 2007 this was CON 40, LAB 26, LIB 24
They put this year (based on by-election results) at LAB 38, CON 34-38, LIB 16-22

I can't see the Liberals hitting 22%...

[You kip if you want to...]

How are the Greens looking down in Brighton and Norwich? I know they'll probably lose their ward over the Mersey in Liverpool.

[You kip if you want to...]

I wonder what the wards which make up the Hallam constituency will look like...

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck.

So it's gone from wipe-out standard to... what?

[You kip if you want to...]

Good riddance from what I've heard of the Liverpool Lib Dems.

Bradley has done better for the people of Liverpool in opposition, with his opposition to the Coalition, than he ever did as council leader.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour's second broadcast
http://vimeo.com/22552966

Your voice in tough times (Part 2)

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck.

So it's gone from wipe-out standard to... what?

Is wipe-out (in the sense of not winning any of the seats up this year) actually likely?  I see their votes in some of their best wards fell dramatically last year and they don't seem so safe now, but what about Woolton?

If Bradley actually did what he's been accused of doing it seems remarkably stupid.  His statement is on the Liverpool Echo site.

Is it coincidence that Clegg condemned his email a few days ago?

[You kip if you want to...]

Newcastle upon Tyne

Current composition: LDem 42, Labour 33, Ind 2
Seats up: LDem 17, Labour 9, Ind 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Labour need to gain six seats in order to take control. Labour don't actually need to win any more wards than they did in 2010 in order to win back a majority in the city of T. Dan Smith, and, given the unpopularity of the government in the North East and the results in 2010, ought to be able to do so. Newcastle, incidentally, was one of Labour's strongest cities in England at the last General Election.

... in spite of some rather fanciful predictions before the election that all three seats might go yellow.

Well, Cleggmania and all that...

[You kip if you want to...]

Yougov have just published their March aggregated VI figures, with a sample of over 50k, so it should be safer than usual to use their cross-breaks to measure the varying regional swings with respect to the upcoming locals:

What's with the relatively crap Labour showing in London?

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour done fairly well in London last year, with a much lower swing against them compared to the rest of the country (2.5% compared to England's 5.6%). With that in mind, they've less to recover from.

42 - LD
37 - Con
12 - Lab

Twickenham with those London swings. Now, if only...

[You kip if you want to...]

The Liverpool LibDems. LOL.
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2011/04/liverpool-gary-millar-quits/

[You kip if you want to...]

I really want to know if the audience is genuine or not...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1BKo_NlwZOQ

[You kip if you want to...]

I bring news of a shocking upset: the People's Flag (that is Deepest Red) remains flying over Sunderland.

So much of an upset, neither Sky nor BBC can be bothered mentioning it.

[You kip if you want to...]

DOes the BBC not have a map on their website? Can't seem to find one.

[You kip if you want to...]

Reports from Liverpool don't just suggest a second landslide, but a first avalanche! (Labour are also doing well in my home borough across the Mersey )

[You kip if you want to...]

Sunderland South Council was won by Labour, 4% swing 4 seat gain

[You kip if you want to...]

My ward is expected to be "about 90%" Labour!

[You kip if you want to...]

CON hold Broxbourne. 35 CON 3 LAB 0 LD No change at all

[You kip if you want to...]

Mike Hancock looking defeatist, to say it lightly, on BBC...

THe LibDem rhetoric of more Liberal say in government seems... difficult. As if the Tory Right will allow it.

[You kip if you want to...]

CONs hold Castle Point

[You kip if you want to...]

The LDs currently in 5th on my council!

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour underperforming?

[You kip if you want to...]

Losing to Labour in the North and to the Tories in the south as former Labour tactical voters unwind against them. Seems that the Tories are losing big to Labour, but making up for it with big LibDem gains.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/may/06/edmiliband-nickclegg?CMP=twt_gu