English local elections 2011

[YL]

As a very quick overview (something better some other time), unless something extraordinary happens the natural order of things is going to return to Sheffield, which will get a lot of attention for obvious reasons, and also Newcastle.

I think the question in Sheffield is not whether Labour will regain control, but by how much, and whether the Lib Dems can hold their losses to the places they might have expected to lose if they had a bad year anyway or whether it'll be worse than that.

If that Ashcroft poll from a few months ago showing a 17% LD to Lab swing in Hallam since May 2010 is actually accurate, applies to the council elections as well, and the swing is uniform across the constituency (three big assumptions there) then Labour would take Stannington and Crookes, and the Tories would probably regain a foothold on the Council in Dore & Totley.  That's probably pretty much a worst-case scenario for the Lib Dems: losing Ecclesall or Fulwood is surely unthinkable.

[YL]

Predictions? I'm not really 'up' on local politics, but i'll have a go.

Labour +900
Tory -400
Liberal -500

I know the media like to talk about the results in this way, but I don't think it's a very good one: it completely ignores the differences in size between the wards involved.  Councillors in big Metropolitan Boroughs (Brum being the most extreme case) can represent three to four times as many voters as those in shire districts.

It'd be more interesting to look at predictions for individual councils, but to do a good job probably needs local knowledge.

[YL]

Sheffield: map from 2007 on Andrew Teale's website.  In 2010 Labour won Central, East Ecclesfield, Gleadless Valley and Hillsborough in addition to what they won in 2007, with other wards as before.

The Council is Lib Dem 41, Labour 40, Green 2, Ind (elected as LD) 1, with a minority Lib Dem administration.  One councillor (in Walkley) defected from LD to Lab after the coalition was formed last year.

Historically Sheffield was strongly Labour with a small Tory presence in the western suburbs and some Liberals/Lib Dems in the northern parishes added to the city in 1974.  In the 1990s the Tories collapsed (and have never recovered) and Labour had some local problems, both of which let the Lib Dems in, and the city went yellow in 1999.  Labour ran it again from 2002 to 2008 but a combination of national and local (particularly affecting Hillsborough) issues saw the Lib Dems take it back in 2008, although their majority didn't last long.

There are 28 wards, each with three councillors.  Each ward has one seat (the one last contested in 2007) up for election this year, for a four-year term.  (This is the usual system in Metropolitan Boroughs.)

The following 11 wards, all in the east and north of the city, have never elected a non-Labour councillor under the current boundaries: Arbourthorne, Beighton, Birley, Burngreave, Darnall, Firth Park, Manor Castle, Richmond, Shiregreen & Brightside, Southey, Woodhouse.  This isn't likely to change this year; any interest in these wards will probably be in who comes second; maybe TUSC in Burngreave (where their candidate has done so in the past under various labels).

Mosborough, also in the east, would be in the previous list if the Lib Dems hadn't won it in 2008, and I doubt they'll repeat that this year.  That's all the wards Labour are defending.

I'd group the remaining, mostly western, wards as follows:

Northern parishes: East Ecclesfield, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, West Ecclesfield and to some extent Stannington.  These cover the parishes of Stocksbridge, Ecclesfield and Bradfield added to Sheffield in 1974, and have been generally Lib Dem.  East Ecclesfield contains an area outside Ecclesfield parish which is more like the Labour wards to the south, and that partially explains Labour winning it in 2010.  The Lib Dem vote in these wards is more independent of the national party than it is further south (they have never really looked like winning a parliamentary seat on the basis of it, in spite of the area being more than half of a constituency) so might be a bit more robust: I'm guessing that Labour will repeat their 2010 East Ecclesfield gain but the Lib Dems will hold the other seats.

Inner west: Broomhill, Nether Edge, Walkley.  The Lib Dems are defending all of these, and the national picture makes them look vulnerable.  Broomhill in particular, which probably looked the safest of the three before last year, is dominated by the University and hospitals and has a lot of students.  There could be a strong Green challenge in Broomhill, but I think the other two will go Labour.

Hallam: Crookes, Dore & Totley, Ecclesall, Fulwood, Stannington, grouped because they're the wards in Clegg's seat (though Stannington  doesn't really belong).  The inner parts of Crookes, Ecclesall and Fulwood have a lot in common with the inner west above; the further out parts are wealthy suburbs, and the whole area is generally well-off.  Dore & Totley is the most likely area in Sheffield to vote Tory, but hasn't done so in a Council election since 2004, hence the current lack of Tory representation on the Council.  I'm expecting big anti-Clegg swings to Labour and the Greens, especially in the inner areas, but they'd have to be immense to let any seats change hands (and an LD to Lab swing in Dore just gives the Tories the seat anyway) so I'm guessing all seats will be Lib Dem holds.

Beauchief & Greenhill and Graves Park in the south of the city.  These are mostly fairly middle class suburbs, but the former also includes some rather grim estates on the southern fringe of the city (Lowedges and Batemoor).  Both are Lib Dem and have always been so under current boundaries.  Beauchief & Greenhill looks quite vulnerable and Graves Park less so, and I'm guessing the former will fall to Labour but the latter will stay yellow.

Hillsborough is a bit like the inner west but is more Labour.  The Labour losses here in 2007 and 2008 had a lot to do with an unpopular school closure (note how much worse they did compared with previous years than anywhere else in the city).  I think that issue has faded a little and I'm expecting a Labour gain.

Gleadless Valley is a natural marginal, made up of a mix of inner west type areas like Meersbrook and 1960s estates like Hemsworth and Herdings, and has generally been very close and gone to whichever party wins more wards city-wide.  Again, I'd expect a Labour gain.

Central has a weird history: 2004 (3 seats up) Lab/Green/LD elected, 2006 Green gain from LD (LD third), 2007 Green hold (LD third), 2008 Green gain from Lab (LD third), 2010 Lab gain from Green (LD second, Green third).  I think the General Election had something to do with 2010, and their defending councillor is quite well known, so the Greens may have a chance of holding on, but they never won it by very much even when Labour were nationally unpopular, so I'm leaning towards a Labour gain here too.

That (giving the Greens Broomhill but Labour Central) would give, for the seats contested this year, Labour 19 (up 7), Lib Dem 8 (down 7), Green 1 (no change); the Council would be Lab 47, Lib Dem 34, Green 2, Ind 1.

[YL]

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They came very close to beating Martin Flannery in the re-drawn Sheffield Hillsborough in '83, but then he made Tony Benn look like David Owen.

Yes, I'd forgotten that, but it was against Labour in 1983, and they still couldn't win.  They didn't even try in Penistone & Stocksbridge last year as far as I could tell, even though they've been known to top the poll within its boundaries in local elections in spite of their uselessness in Barnsley borough.

[YL]

I wonder what the wards which make up the Hallam constituency will look like...

Here are their results since 2006, main four parties only, rounded to the nearest percentage point, via Jonathan Harston's website http://mdfs.net/Docs/Sheffield/

Crookes:
2010 LD 52%, Lab 20%, Con 17%, Green 10%
2008 LD 53%, Con 21%, Green 14%, Lab 13%
2007 LD 54%, Con 17%, Lab 17%, Green 12%
2006 LD 49%, Con 19%, Lab 16%, Green 14%

Dore & Totley:
2010 LD 50%, Con 34%, Lab 9%, Green 3%
2008 LD 49%, Con 44%, Lab 4%, Green 3%
2007 LD 52%, Con 36%, Lab 6%, Green 4%
2006 LD 53%, Con 37%, Lab 4%, Green 4%

Ecclesall:
2010 LD 58%, Con 19%, Lab 13%, Green 8%
2008 LD 58%, Con 24%, Green 9%, Lab 8%
2007 LD 54%, Con 26%, Green 11%, Lab 10%
2006 LD 53%, Con 25%, Green 11%, Lab 8%

Fulwood:
2010 LD 55%, Con 24%, Lab 13%, Green 7%
2008 LD 55%, Con 27%, Lab 8%, Green 7%
2007 LD 56%, Con 28%, Lab 7%, Green 7%
2006 LD 47%, Con 34%, Green 8%, Lab 8%

Stannington:
2010 LD 47%, Lab 23%, Con 18%, Green 6%
2008 LD 47%, Lab 23%, Con 16%, Green 6%
2007 LD 49%, Lab 26%, Con 16%, Green 9%
2007 LD 47%, Lab 27%, Con 16%, Green 10%

So: Dore & Totley is the most marginal, but that's because it's the most Tory, Stannington is on paper the most vulnerable to Labour but I'd expect a smaller swing there (less of a university and NHS vote).  I can't rule out the Lib Dems losing something in Hallam - a lot of people have gone off Clegg since last May - but like I said the swings needed are huge; also the LD defectors really need to get behind one opponent rather than splitting between Labour and the Greens, and I doubt that'll happen.

[YL]

OK, let's have a look at some other councils.

Rotherham: Andrew Teale's 2007 map.  In 2010 Labour won both Wales and Maltby which they'd lost in 2007.

This is not the most exciting council: the current composition is Lab 50 Con 10 BNP 1 Ind 2 (one elected as BNP).  The only wards which don't have three Labour councillors are:

Two wards with three Tories: Sitwell (the southern parts of Rotherham proper around Moorgate, and a neighbouring rural area around Upper Whiston) and Hellaby (a strange ward which contains bits of Wickersley, Bramley and Maltby and some areas in between them).

Wales (sic) (the southernmost part of the borough, including the villages of Wales, Kiveton Park and Harthill - like much of the south of the borough it's a mix of mining and commuter villages), which voted Tory in 2007 and 2008 (leading to "Tories win Wales" headline potential) but Labour in 2010.

Anston & Woodsetts (next to Wales and not dissimilar), which voted Labour in 2007 and 2010 but Tory in 2008.

Wickersley (which actually covers only the northern parts of both Wickersley and neighbouring Bramley), which also voted Labour in 2007 and 2010 but Tory in 2008.

Maltby (which covers the eastern and central parts of Maltby town plus a rural area to the south), which voted for an independent in 2007, BNP in 2008 (in a ridiculous election result where there were lots of competitive independents and the BNP winner got only 23%; amusingly the UKIP candidate was called Gordon Brown and came last) and Labour 2010.

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (fairly self-explanatory, unlike most Rotherham ward names) which voted Labour in 2007 and 2010 but BNP in 2008.  The BNP councillor has since had an "interesting" career: he defected from the BNP to something called the England First Party and from them to the National Front.  He then tried to defect back to England First, allegedly because he hadn't realised the NF were racists (!), but England First wouldn't have him back, and he now sits as an independent.

Anyway, I'd expect a repeat of the 2010 result: Labour win everywhere except Sitwell and Hellaby.  The "John Lilburne Democratic Party" is standing in Rotherham East ward; Google suggests they have an "interesting" history too.  The Lib Dems only have four candidates, significantly outnumbered by UKIP.

[YL]

Doncaster: Andrew Teale's 2007 map.  In 2010 Labour did very well, winning everywhere but the Tory strongholds of Sprotborough, Torne Valley and Finningley and the Lib Dem stronghold of Bessacarr & Cantley. 

The council is Lab 34, LD 10, Con 9, Community Group 3, Ind 7.  This might suggest that Labour has control, but unfortunately the Council has an elected mayor, who is an English Democrat.  Doncaster borough has something of a history in recent years of corruption ("Donnygate") and incompetence, which is presumably why they went down the elected mayor road, not that it seems to have done any good.  (See also Stoke.)

The Tories' have all three councillors in the three strongholds mentioned above.  The Lib Dems only won one ward last year but have councillors from 2007 and 2008 in several others; they're defending Mexborough, Town Moor, Wheatley and the mouthful that is "Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall & Barnby Dun" this year.  I'd guess that they'll find these defences difficult; e.g. Mexborough is not the sort of place that's going to appreciate the current Government.

The Community Group's stronghold is Thorne in the east of the borough; they also have one councillor in Central via a defection from Labour (the defector is defending his seat this year).  They did badly everywhere they stood last year, losing one of their Thorne seats to Labour and coming fifth in the process.

The English Democrats have no councillors.  (There's only been one Council election since Davies was elected mayor, and that was on General Election day.)  They're standing in the majority of the wards outside the main core of Doncaster town; I'd guess they will have some populist appeal but hopefully they won't actually win anywhere.

Tentative prediction: Lab 15, Con 3, LD 2, Ind 1.

[YL]

The English Democrats have no councillors.  (There's only been one Council election since Davies was elected mayor, and that was on General Election day.)  They're standing in the majority of the wards outside the main core of Doncaster town; I'd guess they will have some populist appeal but hopefully they won't actually win anywhere.

The only ward where the English Democrats had any kind of track record before Davies was elected mayor was the Tory stronghold of Finningley, where Davies was the candidate.  Between 2006 and 2008 he consistently finished second in that ward with just over 20%.

Yep, and last year they didn't really come close to winning anywhere, though they had lots of 20%ish results.  The closest was Wheatley, where there was no Tory candidate; I'd guess Bentley might be their best result this year, for the same reason.

For those who aren't familiar with Davies, here's my favourite quote (taken slightly out of context):

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and when you're in a hole, stop digging:

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Davies_%28politician%29

[YL]

Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck.

So it's gone from wipe-out standard to... what?

Is wipe-out (in the sense of not winning any of the seats up this year) actually likely?  I see their votes in some of their best wards fell dramatically last year and they don't seem so safe now, but what about Woolton?

If Bradley actually did what he's been accused of doing it seems remarkably stupid.  His statement is on the Liverpool Echo site.

[YL]

Newcastle upon Tyne

Current composition: LDem 42, Labour 33, Ind 2
Seats up: LDem 17, Labour 9, Ind 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Labour need to gain six seats in order to take control. Labour don't actually need to win any more wards than they did in 2010 in order to win back a majority in the city of T. Dan Smith, and, given the unpopularity of the government in the North East and the results in 2010, ought to be able to do so. Newcastle, incidentally, was one of Labour's strongest cities in England at the last General Election.

... in spite of some rather fanciful predictions before the election that all three seats might go yellow.

[YL]

Applying those Yorkshire swings to Sheffield council wards (which is a dubious thing to do for a number of reasons) would give Labour 25 out of 28 with the Lib Dems only winning Dore & Totley, Ecclesall and Fulwood.

[YL]

Rumours - must stress that these are only rumours - of a bloodbath in Sheffield.

The Guardian reports suggestions by Nick Robinson of 12 out of 15 Lib Dem seats lost: pretty much the worst case scenario for them.

[YL]

Listening to Radio Sheffield.  There aren't many details being given away, or even much discussion of rumours (the 12 seat loss one was mentioned briefly) but clearly Labour have taken control.  No surprise there; the question is by how much.

[YL]

Lab gain Wavertree (Liverpool) from former LD council leader.

[YL]

Suggestion on Radio Sheffield that Ecclesall may have "changed hands" (but they seemed sceptical).  Disaster for the Lib Dems if that's true.

[YL]

Birmingham: Lab gain Acocks Green from LD

First Sheffield result is a predictable Labour hold in Southey.  Lab 2927 LD 403 Con 365 Green 347.

[YL]

Rumours from Radio Sheffield:

Recount in Stannington, Sheffield (in Hallam constituency, but not a typical Hallam ward): "around 10 votes in it".

Also a suggested Lab gain in Stocksbridge & Upper Don from LD.

[YL]

Sheffield: Lab gain Crookes from LD (Twitter report)

This is in Clegg's constituency.

[YL]

I know it's a boring council, but Labour have won 20 out of 21 in Rotherham, including Hellaby.

Internet rumours suggest the LDs have held Stannington in Sheffield by 4 or 5 (and have held Dore & Totley, so presumably we're still a Tory-free zone), but Labour have won several more wards.

Further news: Labour gain Nether Edge by nearly 1000.

[YL]

Sheffield complete.

9 Lab gains from LD: both Ecclesfield wards, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Hillsborough, Walkley, Crookes, Broomhill, Nether Edge, Gleadless Valley.

No other changes, so LDs held six wards.  The Tories did embarrassingly badly as usual: they came third in Ecclesall and Fulwood, fourth in Crookes, Broomhill and Nether Edge and fifth in Walkley.  (All of these except the last are wards they would have won until the 1980s or 1990s.)

[YL]

The totals for locals are being distorted by the Tories taking as many seats off of the Liberal Democrats as they are losing to Labour.

Overall the Tory vote has held up. The problem for a general election is that most of the lost LD vote has gone to Labour.

That's very much consistent with the recent polls: Tories still fairly close to their 2010 GE level, LDs losing lots of votes to Labour.

[YL]

It doesn't seem to have been posted on here yet that Labour won every single ward in Manchester:
http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/362/elections/5102/local_election_nominees_2011

In Liverpool, the Lib Dems held Woolton in spite of the earlier rumours, and also held Church, but they lost everything else.  The Greens and the Liberals both held the single seats they were defending.

[YL]

Labour have taken control of Leeds.  More bad results for the Lib Dems in the urban North: they only won two wards (one of which was Otley & Yeadon, which is not part of Leeds by any sensible definition) out of the eight they were defending.

[YL]

Sheffield winning party:


Lib Dem to Labour swing since 2010:

(Shades are 0 to 4%, 4% to 8%, etc., up to 16% to 20%, using the British definition of "swing")

Base map is by Jonathan Harston http://mdfs.net/Docs/Sheffield/

Low swings are in the northern parishes, where the Lib Dems did badly in 2010, and in the Lib Dem parts of Heeley constituency where they did surprisingly well (relatively) this year.

[YL]

What was the vote in the Hallam constituency?

LD 14670
Lab 10859
Con 7382
Green 4614

... which is very good for Labour.