English local elections 2011

[joevsimp]

South Oxfordshire
ALL seats up for election (last election 2007)
For those of you that don't know, I now live in a rural Oxfordshire village!

Conservative - 38
LD - 6
Lab - 1
Others - 3

Whilst the overall result should be little in doubt (CON hold), it will represent some of the probable national trends. Any Labour surge will be represented in Didcot (West of the council) - I would expect them to sweep 3 of the 4 wards. It will also be interesting to see what will happen in Thame which has traditionally been a LD v. Tory town. Also interesting to note that a few LD activists are fighting their wards as Independents here.

Yay, another one, I've just moved to Didcot! From Brighton so a much less interesting election for me (I'll do my attempt at a bit of analysis there on Sunday if no-one beats me to it)


As for South Ox, I really don't know much, but I can see Labour having a complete landslide of the seats in Didcot, but at the same time can see them losing out to the Tories in Ladygrove and All Saints, and possibly the independent candidate in Northbourne (who I'll be backing, not having any Green candidates to vote for provide free labour to

on that topic, there's a smattering of Greens elsewhere, but I can't really see them doing anything other than ensuring the LDs loose out

[joevsimp]

Brighton and Hove


can't post links yet I'll upload my map once I can

North Portslade, 1 Lab, 1 con
South Portslade, as above

Must win seats for labour, regaining the two seats lost in 2007 is a critical priority but shouldn't be too taxing.

Hangleton and Knoll, 3 con

Has been labour held recently, and is a major target for recovery, bpb reckons its heading for a split though, with Tories holding on to one seat. There is also a former Tory-independent in the running to complicate matters

Wish 2 con

Western Hove/Aldrington, reasonably safe, but could go to labour on a very bad night for the tories

Westbourne, 2 con

the eastern part of the pre '74 aldrington district, fairly safe, but has been designated a "cardboard " target by the greens (ie, one up from being paper candidates), they will probably only win if momentum catapaults them into a majority.

Central Hove, 2 Con

Like Westbourne, has been designated by Greens as having "cardboard" candidates, which means its less likely to fall this time as resources are ploughed into two unwinnable wards in the north of Caroline Lucas' constituency instead, still one to watch out for as the Lib Dem slump puts Labour in the running as well.

Brunswick and Adilade, 1 LD, 1 ex-LD

Apart from the two wards where they hold 1/3 seats, this is the top target for the greens, and even though the former ld cllr and two-time parliamentary candidate is standing, two relatively simple gains for the greens are the most likely outcome
 
Goldsmid, 1 con 1 grn 1 lab

The Greens’ first seat in hove is a prime target, second only to Preston Park, the greens should gain the remaining tory seat after their by election win two years ago, but Labour, could however, hold onto their seat

Hove Park, formerly known as Stanford, 1 ind, 1 con

the minority tory administration has been propped up by the independent cllr's vote since losing its majority in the private eye-induced Goldsmid by-election in 2009 (actually thats a lie, its been dependent on Labour sitting on their hands at times) ultra safe for the Tories, with normal service being restored by the independent cllr standing down

Withdean, 3 con, Has been designated a target ward by the greens, purely for being in Caroline Lucas's constituency, but will stay blue till judgement day.

Patcham and Hollingbury, 3 con

As above but labour could pick up one seat out of three, something they'll probably need to do in order to come out on top if they can't turn back the green tide in the centre of the city.

Hollingdean and Stanmer 3 lab

Contains the Sussex University campus as well as estates like Coldean and the Bates estate. Likely gains by the Greens, but likely to split with at least one labour cllr holding on

Preston Park, 1 Green, 2 Lab

The greens gained a seat here in 2003, but failed to improve on it in 2007, historically a champagne socialist area, could go either way

Saint Peter’s and North Laine, 3 green

The first ward to fall to the Greens, recent by election was won on 60% of the vote

Regency, 2 green

Gained from the Lib Dems in 2007 but shouldn’t be too difficult for the greens to hold unless Labour really pull something out of the bag

Hannover and Elm Grove, 3 green

Second safest ward for the greens, large student population and also known as “muesli mountain”

Queens Park, 3 grn

There is a potential for Labour to regain some  or all of the seats they lost in 2007, as this was a personal backlash against the ruling clique of the Labour administration.  Contains the bulk of fabulous Kemptown, but also areas of council housing, as well as the job centre, police station and county court all next to eachother.

East Brighton 3 Lab

Should be safe, Tories and Greens might run have them close if they were still in power at westminster

Moulsecoomb and Bevendean, 2 Lab, 1 Con

Tories gained a seat in 2007, unlikely for them to gain other two, another “cardboard” for the Greens and could end up split three ways, three labour cllrs is most likely though

Woodingdean, 2 con

A separate town that has clear green space on all sides, any change would probably give the two tory candidates and the returning officer heart attacks

Rottingdean Costal. 3 con

As above but includes the marina and a bit of what should probably be in the East Brighton ward


Phew.

I think that the most likely outcome is a Baden-Wuttemburg scenario, but I have doubts about the local Labour party’s willingness to enter a green-led coalition. I’m not going to attempt a more in-depth prediction, Instead, I’ll provide a map of how things would probably look if the LDs crash out and the other three parties split equally, 18 seats each

[joevsimp]

Middlesbrough

Current composition: Labour 27, Ind 13, Con 6, Green 1, LDem 1
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: It's hard to imagine that Labour majority not growing, though by how much I've no idea given the existence of seemingly entrenched Independents. Robocop is also up for re-election; he waltzed to re-election in 2007 and presumably will do again, unless his popularity has taken a knock and there's a serious campaign being run against him. The LibDems won five seats in 2007; they seem to have scattered to the winds.

Districts

There are no Districts in the North East.

Didn't know Middlesborough had a Green cllr, was that a by election or a defection cos I'm sure I'd remember something like that happening

[joevsimp]

Defection from the Lib Dems.

fair enough, any chance of holding the seat, or will Labour gain it?

there aren't actually too many of them about are there? a couple in Aberdeenshire and a one more in Mid Suffolk

[joevsimp]

I really want to know if the audience is genuine or not...

Dunno, but thats about the fifth ppb in a row from my party that I've thought was rubbish and mildly patronising, no different to any other party's though

[joevsimp]

Quick map of winners in Brum:

The stunner of the night was Hall Green; Labour have only ever won there once. In 1945; and the ward covered a larger area back then.

I assume that Salma Yaqoub's seat wasn't up this year or we'd have heard more, any idea on the prognosis for Respect?

[joevsimp]

Winning party by ward for all of the councils in the former West Midlands Metropolitan County. Basically, Labour did well everywhere except for Solihull, the Tories did badly everywhere except for Solihull and the LibDems did extremely (shockingly?) badly everywhere (including Solihull). Of course there's a lot of variation within that general pattern.

What's the one tory seat in Sandwell?

[joevsimp]

In Chelmsley Wood, sure. It's a very, very strange place; really should have incorporated it into Brum in the 70s. But generally? Not convinced that central Brighton has much in common with (say) Becontree, Bentilee or Heckmondwike. Especially as the latter type don't seem quite so disaffected these days...

What's the story behind the Green gains in Solihull?  I know one of those wards (Chelmsley Wood) has voted BNP in the past; is it the only place to have voted both Green and BNP?

Solihull Labour made the error of becoming the junior partners to a LibDem-led administration in the borough, and so it seems that the Greens (an established receptacle for protest votes in Chelmsley Wood/Kingshurst for whatever reason: they have another councillor up for re-election next year) benefited as a direct result. The contrast with the rest of the conurbation is... er... noticeable.

Solihull was also(iirc) the place where the the Green Party's "Target to Win" strategy was pioneered, where all available resources are put into one basket/ward and then expand from there,


although, Having lived in three of the ten wards in B&H with Green cllrs, there's plenty of patches here and there that aren't what you'd expect, some really horrid looking blocks and some blocks that look nice on the outside but are'nt so great once you get in the big doors

[joevsimp]

In Chelmsley Wood, sure. It's a very, very strange place; really should have incorporated it into Brum in the 70s. But generally? Not convinced that central Brighton has much in common with (say) Becontree, Bentilee or Heckmondwike. Especially as the latter type don't seem quite so disaffected these days...

What's the story behind the Green gains in Solihull?  I know one of those wards (Chelmsley Wood) has voted BNP in the past; is it the only place to have voted both Green and BNP?

Solihull Labour made the error of becoming the junior partners to a LibDem-led administration in the borough, and so it seems that the Greens (an established receptacle for protest votes in Chelmsley Wood/Kingshurst for whatever reason: they have another councillor up for re-election next year) benefited as a direct result. The contrast with the rest of the conurbation is... er... noticeable.

Solihull was also(iirc) the place where the the Green Party's "Target to Win" strategy was pioneered, where all available resources are put into one basket/ward and then expand from there,


although, Having lived in three of the ten wards in B&H with Green cllrs, there's plenty of patches here and there that aren't what you'd expect, some really horrid looking blocks and some blocks that look nice on the outside but are'nt so great once you get in the big doors

e2a  the Greens have gained another cllr in Solihull, by a defection from the Lib Dems, Howard Allen in Shirley West, giving us a total of 4, only two less than Labour (wtf did they do to wind up like that?)

[joevsimp]

although, Having lived in three of the ten wards in B&H with Green cllrs, there's plenty of patches here and there that aren't what you'd expect, some really horrid looking blocks and some blocks that look nice on the outside but are'nt so great once you get in the big doors

I wasn't thinking in terms of affluence and so on, so much as culture; much of Brighton is quite distinct from cultural norms and this shows up in a wide range of statistics (everything from religious identity to consumer habits), which makes it ideal territory for the Greens (or, frankly, for any other radical party outside the labourist - I'm using that word in a non-pejorative sense of course - and fabian norms of left wing electoral politics in Britain). Most of the places where the BNP was (ah... how nice to write...) strong are not like that; if there was a political tradition that went against Labour norms, then it was usually submerged working class Toryism.

that's fair enough, I'd agree that you get working class greenies in Brighton at about  the same rate as working class tories in Essex, where I grew up, and I've definately got clothes I bought when I lived down there that I'd never wear back home.

 not to put things too bluntly, but IME, a lot of  the "typical" bnp voters in the Barking, Epping Forest, Thurrock etc sort of area is the kind of working class tories who voted for Labour in 97  and 01 and read the Sun, tarring with a fairly broad broad brush there, and not everyone of that discription does (especially in Romford where Andrew Rosindell with his bulldog in a Union Jack dogcoat is the MP)

Back to Chemsley wood though, the turnouts in local elections are so low that there could be hardly anyone who's voted for both, I'd guess there's mostly bnp voters going back to labour and the greens gaining labour voters who never voted bnp

[joevsimp]

Council-level results gifs using the figures I posted;

Liberal's


If someone could offer a less-limited colour palate (15 or so) for each party I could probably show the changes better.

hmm, the only area to hold up in a big way was South Lakeland, are they esecially well dug-in there or could it have something to do with it being Tim Farron's constituency?

[joevsimp]

Libdems up in Oadby and Wigston?