English local elections 2011

[Leftbehind]

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Obviously there are all sorts of complications for polling local elections, but these figures don't look too far from the truth.

@C. Monty Burns
I'm baffled by your political matrix and your apparent support for social democrats?

[Leftbehind]

OIC.

So you are a lolbertarian?

[Leftbehind]

Good riddance from what I've heard of the Liverpool Lib Dems.

[Leftbehind]

Be good if it's a clean sweep for Labour here; I'll be doing my bit to swing Redcar & Cleveland.

[Leftbehind]

Defection from the Lib Dems.

[Leftbehind]

Defection from the Lib Dems.

fair enough, any chance of holding the seat, or will Labour gain it?

there aren't actually too many of them about are there? a couple in Aberdeenshire and a one more in Mid Suffolk

I actually think he might have a fair chance to hold on to it. Lib Dems aren't standing any candidates in the ward, despite them winning it in 2003 & 2007 at roughly a 2:1 vote over Labour. Ideal conditions for him to win, considering how lacklustre the Greens are here in the N/E.

Are you speaking specifically about Lib Dem > Green defections, or Green councillors total? Not sure about the former, but you can see the latter here.

[Leftbehind]

Yougov have just published their March aggregated VI figures, with a sample of over 50k, so it should be safer than usual to use their cross-breaks to measure the varying regional swings with respect to the upcoming locals:

[Leftbehind]

Labour done fairly well in London last year, with a much lower swing against them compared to the rest of the country (2.5% compared to England's 5.6%). With that in mind, they've less to recover from.

[Leftbehind]

Shameless self-promotion time: for comparison go to
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/councils/2007
for the 2007 results.

Or, if you want to download the lot, the 751-page book is now available: http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/2007/2007.pdf
Don't all rush at once

This is a brilliant resource - the goto for council results for me, so I can only echo CS: you should promote it at every opportunity (lord knows that I do).

[Leftbehind]

Absolutely, moreso here in the North.

Refudiate: He's right, the Tories need Lib Dem votes to pass their policies, so if the Tory Right can't lump it then here's hoping for another election.

[Leftbehind]

Tories knew what they were voting for?

[Leftbehind]

I know results are patchy across the UK for Labour, but some of their swings in metropolitan Northern cities must be monumental if they've won some of the wards they're supposed to.

*Although I say patchy, the only place Labour seem to have done badly is Scotland and even there, their vote's largely remained static since '07.

[Leftbehind]

Pretty good, mainly because the collapse of Lib Dem vote to Labour benefited them in the South (one united anti-Tory vote collapses into two non-competitive votes etc) as much as it did for Labour in the North.

Liverpool's Lib Dem leader, in Wavertree results for 2007

Lib 70.0%
Lab 16.7%

and that's a Labour gain lol.

[Leftbehind]

Labour take Redcar & Cleveland. It may be interesting to see the ward results.

Aye. Good stuff.

[Leftbehind]

I haven't got any pretty maps to offer, but I did work out - in the understandable absense of any figures online - what the North East region's collective vote was and and how it differed to '07's collective vote - ie swings.

North East
Lab 50.1% (+12.0%)
Con 22.6% (-0.6%)
Lib 13.0% (-8.3%)
Ind 12.0% (+1.3%)
Grn  0.8% (+0.2%)
UKI  0.6% (-0.2%)
BNP  0.5% (-3.5%)
Prg  0.2% (-0.3%)
Lib* 0.1% (-0.1%)
New  0.1% (+0.1%)
N-F  0.0% (-0.1%)
TUS  0.0% (+0.0%)
E-F  0.0% (+0.0%)
Com  0.0% (-0.0%)
[NNP 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[Res 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[Soc 0.0% (-0.0%)]

 

I've also worked out the swings for each of the individual councils. If anyone's interested I'll post them (or if anyone knows if someone's already done this - and where).

[Leftbehind]

Rightio;

Darlington
Lab 49.1% (+19.5%)
Con 40.1% (+0.7%)
Lib  9.2% (-13.1%)
Ind  1.4% (-1.6%)
EFP  0.1% (+0.1%)
[BNP 4.2% (-4.2%)]
[Grn 1.0% (-1.0%)]
[UKI 0.5% (-0.5%)]

Gateshead
Lab 63.5% (+17.5%)
Lib 21.2% (-14.4%)
Con 11.3% (+2.2%)
Lib* 1.3% (-1.3%)
Grn  1.1% (+1.1%)
Ind  0.8% (-0.7%)
TUS  0.5% (+0.5%)
[BNP 5.0% (-5.0%)]
[UKI 0.4% (-0.4%)]

Hartlepool
Lab 45.6% (+12.3%)
Con 23.8% (+9.2%)
Ind 17.6% (-2.7%)
UKI  8.2% (-3.3%)
Lib  3.7% (-15.3%)
BNP  1.0% (-0.3%)

Middlesbrough
Lab 51.3% (+13.5%)
Ind 26.9% (-1.5%)
Con 15.3% (-3.3%)
Lib  4.5% (-10.3%)
Grn  1.3% (+1.3%)
UKI  0.4% (+0.4%)
BNP  0.1% (+0.1%)
[NNP 0.4% (-0.4%)]

Newcastle Upon Tyne
Lab 51.8% (+18.5%)
Lib 30.5% (-16.2%)
Con 10.9% (-1.4%)
BNP  2.6% (-1.5%)
Grn  2.1% (-0.7%)
NFP  1.3% (+1.3%)
Ind  0.4% (+0.1%)
Com  0.0% (-0.0%)
[Res 0.2% (-0.2%)]

North Tyneside
Lab 54.2% (+14.3%)
Con 34.3% (-4.9%)
Lib  9.6% (-7.4%)
N-F  0.7% (-0.3%)
Grn  0.5% (+0.3%)
Ind  0.3% (-0.7%)
BNP  0.1% (-1.1%)
[NNP 0.1% (-0.1%)]

Redcar and Cleveland
Lab 42.6% (+6.8%) 
Lib 21.6% (+1.5%)
Ind 19.0% (+0.6%)
Con 16.5% (-7.4%)
UKI  0.2% (+0.2%)
[BNP 1.7% (-1.7%)]

South Tyneside
Lab 53.4% (+11.9%)
Ind 21.5% (-5.3%)
Con 14.3% (+1.2%)
Prg  3.3% (-2.1%)
Lib  2.3% (-4.1%)
BNP  2.3% (-2.1%)
Grn  1.2% (-0.6%)
Lib* 1.0% (+1.0%)
[UKI 0.3% (-0.3%)]
[Soc 0.2% (-0.2%)]

Stockton-on-Tees
Lab 36.8% (+3.5%)
Con 29.6% (+0.2%)
Ind 23.8% (+6.1%)
Lib  9.1% (-6.8%)
UKI  0.5% (-1.1%)
[BNP 2.1% (-2.1%)]

Sunderland
Lab 60.2% (+16.9%)
Con 25.7% (-2.4%)
Lib  5.0% (-3.7%)
Ind  4.5% (-3.8%)
Grn  2.4% (+2.4%)
UKI  2.0% (+1.9%)
[BNP 10.6% (-10.6%)]
[BFP 0.5% (-0.5%)]
[Res 0.3% (-0.3%)]

Unfamiliar acronyms/awkward attempts to fit party names into three letters:
Lib* = Liberal Party
BFP = Britain First Party
EFP = England First Party
NFP = Newcastle First Party
NNP = New Nationalist Party
Prg = South Tyneside Progressives
N-F = National Front

The rest is standard fare - those in brackets didn't stand this time round.

[Leftbehind]

North West
Lab 44.2% (+13.1%)
Con 33.0% (-0.1%)
Lib 12.4% (-11.7%)
Ind  4.3% (+0.9%)
Grn  2.4% (-0.3%)
UKI  1.6% (+0.7%)
BNP  0.5% (-1.6%)
M-F  0.3% (+0.2%)
Lib* 0.2% (-0.1%)
CAP  0.1% (+0.0%)
TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)
Sou  0.1% (+0.0%)
Rat  0.1% (-0.1%)
EDP  0.1% (+0.0%)
B-F  0.0% (+0.0%)
SPP  0.0% (+0.0%)
F-D  0.0% (-0.1%)
IUK  0.0% (+0.0%)
Res  0.0% (-0.1%)
SLP  0.0% (+0.0%)
I-T  0.0% (-0.1%)
S-F  0.0% (+0.0%)
FFK  0.0% (+0.0%)
C-F  0.0% (+0.0%)
E-F  0.0% (-0.1%)
GrS  0.0% (+0.0%)
ABF  0.0% (+0.0%)
N-F  0.0% (+0.0%)
Com  0.0% (+0.0%)
[CPF 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[S-A 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[USP 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[NHS 0.0% (-0.0%)] 
[N-P 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[Mum 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[FAG 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[Cit 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[Ver 0.0% (-0.0%)]

Counties:

Cheshire            Cumbria             Greater Manchester  Lancashire          Merseyside
Con 42.7% (+1.1%)   Lab 44.1% (+13.7%)  Lab 49.9% (+13.7%)  Con 42.0% (+1.3%)   Lab  54.1% (+20.4%)
Lab 35.5% (+13.2%)  Con 34.0% (-3.8%)   Con 26.2% (-2.6%)   Lab 37.9% (+10.5%)  Con  19.5% (-3.0%)
Lib 13.7% (-12.0%)  Lib  9.8% (-6.6%)   Lib 13.8% (-10.6%)  Lib  8.0% (-8.9%)   Lib  16.7% (-17.6%)
Ind  3.8% (-1.8%)   Ind  8.4% (-2.7%)   Ind  3.3% (+2.0%)   Ind  6.8% (-1.3%)   Grn  3.6%  (+0.3%)
M-F  1.6% (+1.1%)   Grn  1.4% (+0.7%)   Grn  2.7% (-0.7%)   Grn  2.6% (+0.2%)   UKI  2.9%  (+1.5%)
UKI  1.0% (-0.3%)   BNP  0.9% (-1.3%)   UKI  2.1% (+1.3%)   UKI  1.0% (+0.4%)   Lib* 1.2%  (-0.4%)
Grn  0.9% (-1.0%)   SPP  0.5% (-0.2%)   BNP  0.8% (-1.8%)   BNP  0.4% (-2.6%)   Sou  0.6%  (-0.1%)
B-F  0.3% (+0.3%)   UKI  0.4% (+0.4%)   CAP  0.5% (-1.5%)   Rat  0.3% (-0.7%)   Ind  0.3%  (-0.1%)
S-F  0.1% (+0.1%)   TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)   EDP  0.1% (+0.1%)   F-D  0.1% (-0.5%)   BNP  0.3%  (-0.9%)
BNP  0.0% (-0.5%)   Com  0.0% (+0.0%)   TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)   IUK  0.1% (+0.1%)   TUS  0.2%  (+0.2%)
SLP  0.0% (+0.0%)   [NHS 0.2% (-0.2%)]  Res  0.1% (+0.1%)   TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)   SLP  0.1%  (+0.0%)
[EDP 0.3% (-0.3%)]  [EDP 0.0% (-0.0%)]  GrS  0.0% (+0.0%)   I-T  0.1% (-0.4%)   FFK  0.1%  (+0.1%)
[Cit 0.0% (-0.0%)]                      ABF  0.0% (+0.0%)   C-F  0.0% (+0.0%)   EDP  0.1%  (+0.1%)
                                        N-F  0.0% (+0.0%)   EDP  0.0% (+0.0%)   Res  0.0%  (+0.0%)
                                        Pir  0.0% (+0.0%)   E-F  0.0% (-0.4%)   [CAP 0.2% (-0.2%)]
                                        N-F  0.0% (+0.0%)   N-F  0.0% (+0.0%)   [S-A 0.1% (-0.1%)]
                                        SEP  0.0% (+0.0%)   [Res 0.5% (-0.5%)]  [USP 0.1% (-0.1%)]
                                        [CPF 0.1% (-0.1%)]  [N-P 0.0% (-0.0%)]  [CPF 0.1% (-0.1%)]
                                        [S-A 0.0% (-0.0%)]  [Mum 0.0% (-0.0%)]  [Com 0.1% (-0.1%)]
                                        [SLP 0.0% (-0.0%)]  [FAG 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                                        [Ver 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                                        [USP 0.0% (-0.0%)]

[Leftbehind]

...and the individual councils;

Cheshire:

Cheshire East       Cheshire W/Chester  Halton               Warrington
Con 48.0% (+2.0%)   Con 45.3% (-3.0%)   Lab 64.5% (+24.7%)   Lab 47.0% (+16.0%)
Lab 26.1% (+10.2%)  Lab 37.4% (+15.5%)  Con 20.4% (-3.2%)    Con 26.2% (+0.9%)
Lib 12.6% (-10.3%)  Lib 11.9% (-9.0%)   Lib 13.8% (-17.6%)   Lib 23.6% (-17.1%)
Ind  6.1% (-4.6%)   Ind  3.1% (+0.8%)   Ind  1.1% (-0.2%)    Grn  1.3% (+0.1%)
M-F  4.0% (+2.8%)   UKI  1.5% (-1.5%)   [Grn 2.9% (-2.9%)    UKI  1.0% (+1.0%)
Grn  1.4% (-0.9%)   Grn  0.5% (-1.1%)   [BNP 0.5% (-0.5%)]   BNP  0.2% (+0.2%)
B-F  0.8% (+0.8%)   SLP  0.1% (+0.1%)   [CPH 0.4% (-0.4%)]   [Ind 1.8% (-1.8%)]
UKI  0.6% (-0.1%)   BNP  0.1% (-0.8%)
S-F  0.3% (+0.3%)   [EDP 1.1% (-1.1%)]
[BNP 0.4% (-0.4%)]

 

Cumbria:

Allerdale           Barrow-in-Furness   Carlisle             Copeland            Eden
Lab 56.1% (+10.7%)  Lab 56.0% (+17.9%)  Lab 43.3% (+4.7%)    Lab 56.0% (+7.9%)   Lib 37.0% (+17.7%)
Ind 22.1% (+1.2%)   Con 38.6% (-7.5%)   Con 37.9% (-4.7%)    Con 37.4% (-8.0%)   Con 33.7% (+4.6%)
Con 15.2% (-5.2%)   SPP  2.3% (-2.9%)   Lib  6.0% (-5.9%)    Ind  3.9% (+0.7%)   Ind 19.3% (-25.4%)
Lib  2.8% (-2.4%)   Ind  2.1% (-7.8%)   Ind  4.5% (+2.9%)    BNP  1.3% (+1.3%)   Lab  6.3% (+1.8%)
BNP  1.8% (-4.0%)   UKI  0.8% (+0.8%)   Grn  3.8% (+3.8%)    Lib  0.8% (-2.5%)   Grn  2.5% (+0.1%)
Grn  1.8% (-0.3%)   [BNP 0.7% (-0.7%)]  UKI  1.9% (+1.9%)    Grn  0.6% (+0.6%)   BNP  1.1% (+1.1%)
                                        TUS  1.2% (+1.2%)
                                        BNP  1.0% (-4.0%)
                                        Com  0.2% (+0.2%)
                                        [EDP 0.4% (-0.4%)]

South Lakeland 
Lib 55.5% (-1.5%)
Con 39.9% (-0.8%)
Lab  4.6% (+4.3%)
[NHS 1.4% (-1.4%)]

Greater Manchester:

Bolton              Bury                Manchester           Oldham              Rochdale
Lab 49.4% (+12.9%)  Lab 48.7% (+14.8%)  Lab 62.4% (+17.0%)   Lab 52.8% (+18.2%)  Lab 49.3% (+13.6%)
Con 33.5% (-6.3%)   Con 34.2% (-7.2%)   Lib 17.3% (-14.5%)   Lib 23.4% (-12.9%)  Con 23.5% (-1.8%)
Lib 12.0% (-7.7%)   Lib 11.1% (-7.3%)   Con  9.0% (-2.0%)    Con 19.2% (-1.9%)   Lib 19.4% (-19.1%)
Grn  3.7% (+0.5%)   UKI  3.7% (+3.7%)   Grn  7.6% (-0.8%)    Ind  3.7% (+2.0%)   Ind  3.9% (+3.4%)
Ind  0.6% (+0.6%)   Ind  0.7% (+0.4%)   BNP  1.3% (+0.2%)    Grn  0.9% (-1.5%)   Res  2.3% (+2.3%)
BNP  0.4% (-0.4%)   EDP  0.6% (+0.6%)   UKI  1.1% (+0.0%)    [BNP 2.9% (-2.9%)]  Grn  0.7% (+0.7%)
ABF  0.2% (+0.2%)   Grn  0.6% (+0.6%)   Ind  0.7% (+0.5%)    [UKI 0.9% (-0.9%)]  N-F  0.6% (+0.6%)
[Ver 0.1% (-0.1%)]  Pir  0.2% (+0.2%)   TUS  0.3% (+0.0%)
                    [BNP 5.9% (-5.9%)]  Res  0.1% (-0.5%)
                                        SEP  0.1% (+0.1%)
                                        [S-A 0.3% (-0.3%)]
                                        [USP 0.1% (-0.1%)]

Salford             Stockport           Tameside             Trafford            Wigan
Lab 54.4% (+14.6%)  Lab 31.6% (+14.1%)  Lab 56.6% (+7.8%)    Con 42.7% (-4.3%)   Lab 54.6% (+11.3%)
Con 24.2% (-5.3%)   Con 30.2% (-1.6%)   Con 25.2% (-3.7%)    Lab 39.8% (+11.2%)  Con 19.6% (-1.5%)
Lib  8.5% (-13.4%)  Lib 29.3% (-11.1%)  UKI  8.0% (+5.8%)    Lib  9.9% (-5.1%)   Ind 12.6% (+9.4%)
UKI  5.7% (+4.2%)   Ind  2.9% (-0.8%)   Grn  4.8% (-0.2%)    Grn  6.9% (-1.3%)   CAP  4.8% (-11.0%)
Grn  2.1% (+1.0%)   UKI  2.5% (+1.0%)   Ind  2.6% (+0.2%)    UKI  0.8% (+0.6%)   InC  3.5% (+3.5%)
BNP  1.5% (-1.4%)   Grn  2.4% (+0.2%)   BNP  2.3% (-5.1%)    [BNP 0.5% (-0.5%)]  Lib  2.7% (-7.4%)
Ind  1.5% (+1.0%)   BNP  1.0% (-1.9%)   EDP  0.4% (+0.4%)    [EDP 0.4% (-0.4%)]  BNP  1.0% (-2.6%)
TUS  1.0% (+1.0%)                                            [SLP 0.1% (-0.1%)]  UKI  0.6% (+0.1%)
EDP  0.9% (+0.5%)                                                                GSA  0.4% (+0.4%)
[CAP 2.5% (-2.5%)]                                                               E-F  0.1% (+0.1%)
                                                                                 [CPF 1.2% (-1.2%)]
                                                                                 [Grn 1.2% (-1.2%)]

Lancashire:

Blackburn w/ Darwen Blackpool           Burnley              Chorley             Fylde
Lab 57.5% (+23.0%)  Lab 50.2% (+17.6%)  Lab 46.8% (+16.8%)   Lab 49.0% (+10.8%)  Con 51.0% (+15.6%)
Con 27.8% (-1.2%)   Con 41.4% (-0.9%)   Lib 32.7% (+0.1%)    Con 38.3% (-8.3%)   Ind 30.5% (+2.6%)
Lib 10.9% (-12.4%)  Lib  5.2% (-12.4%)  Con 14.0% (-1.5%)    Lib  6.1% (-2.2%)   Lib 10.2% (-4.9%)
F-D  2.4% (-3.7%)   UKI  1.9% (+1.0%)   BNP  6.0% (-10.5%)   UKI  4.1% (+3.5%)   Rat  3.5% (-10.3%)
BNP  1.5% (-3.0%)   Ind  1.1% (+0.7%)   UKI  0.5% (+0.5%)    Ind  2.4% (-2.9%)   Lab  2.9% (-4.9%)
[E-F 1.5% (-1.5%)]  Grn  0.1% (+0.1%)   [EFP 3.0% (-3.0%)]   [N-P 1.0% (-1.0%)]  IUK  1.8% (+1.8%)
[Grn 0.9% (-0.9%)]  [BNP 5.3% (-5.3%)]  [Ind 2.1% (-2.1%)]
[Ind 0.2% (-0.2%)]  [Mum 0.5% (-0.5%)]  [Grn 0.3% (-0.3%)]
                    [FAG 0.4% (-0.4%)]

Hyndburn            Lancaster           Pendle               Preston             Ribble Valley
Lab 48.2% (+2.2%)   Lab 32.4% (+10.5%)  Con 41.1% (+6.6%)    Lab 44.5% (+15.4%)  Con 62.6% (+8.6%)
Con 37.6% (-10.6%)  Con 25.5% (-6.6%)   Lab 37.1% (+19.4%)   Con 36.0% (-3.4%)   Lib 17.1% (-16.7%)
Ind 13.8% (+9.1%)   Ind 20.4% (+2.2%)   Lib 18.0% (-16.7%)   Lib 13.4% (-8.6%)   Lab 12.9% (+12.9%)
UKI  0.4% (+0.4%)   Grn 16.0% (-2.0%)   BNP  1.7% (-5.3%)    TUS  2.6% (+2.6%)   Ind  3.9% (-5.9%)
[Grn 1.0% (-1.0%)]  Lib  5.7% (-2.4%)   EDP  1.0% (+1.0%)    Ind  2.4% (-0.4%)   UKI  2.5% (+2.5%)
                    [UKI 1.1% (-1.1%)]  E-F  0.6% (+0.6%)    E-F  0.7% (+0.7%)   Grn  0.9% (+0.9%)
                    [BNP 0.7% (-0.7%)]  UKI  0.2% (-0.3%)    Grn  0.4% (+0.2%)   [BNP 1.3% (-1.3%)]
                                        [Ind 4.3% (-4.3%)]   [Res 6.5% (-6.5%)]  [E-F 1.0% (-1.0%)]
                                        [Grn 1.2% (-1.2%)]

Rossendale          South Ribble        West Lancashire      Wyre
Lab 51.3% (+18.3%)  Con 54.0% (-1.0%)   Lab 49.9% (+12.0%)   Con 59.4% (+0.2%)
Con 42.7% (+4.6%)   Lab 36.7% (+13.6%)  Con 46.2% (-6.6%)    Lab 35.8% (+7.2%)
C-F  3.1% (+3.1%)   Lib  7.8% (-7.0%)   Grn  2.7% (-0.9%)    UKI  2.6% (-1.0%)
NFr  1.0% (+1.0%)   I-T  1.0% (-5.4%)   Lib  1.1% (-1.6%)    Ind  1.5% (+1.5%)
Grn  0.9% (+0.9%)   UKI  0.3% (+0.3%)   [Ind 1.3% (-1.3%)]   Grn  0.6% (+0.6%)
EDP  0.9% (+0.9%)   Grn  0.1% (+0.1%)   [UKI 0.9% (-0.9%)]   [Lib 8.1% (-8.1%)]
[Lib22.8% (-22.8%)] [Ind 0.7% (-0.7%)]  [EDP 0.5% (-0.5%)]   [BNP 1.5% (-1.5%)]
[BNP 6.1% (-6.1%)]

Merseyside:

Knowsley            Liverpool           St Helen's           Sefton              Wirral
Lab 74.6% (+18.9%)  Lab 63.2% (+26.7%)  Lab 60.1% (+22.3%)   Lab 45.2% (+18.8%)  Lab 42.9% (+14.2%)
Lib 14.9% (-16.1%)  Lib 18.2% (-24.2%)  Lib 17.5% (-22.9%)   Con 25.0% (-6.6%)   Con 34.3% (-4.2%)
Con  6.6% (-1.5%)   Con  6.0% (-0.2%)   Con 17.0% (-0.8%)    Lib 19.7% (-12.5%)  Lib 13.0% (-12.2%)
FFK  1.8% (+1.8%)   Grn  6.0% (+0.0%)   Grn  2.0% (+1.8%)    UKI  5.1% (+1.2%)   UKI  5.0% (+3.3%)
SLP  1.0% (+0.3%)   Lib* 4.1% (-1.6%)   Ind  1.7% (+1.7%)    Sou  2.9% (-0.4%)   Grn  4.5% (-0.9%)
BNP  0.6% (-1.5%)   UKI  1.0% (+0.4%)   BNP  1.0% (-0.9%)    Grn  1.2% (+1.2%)   [Ind 0.3% (-0.3%)]
TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)   TUS  0.4% (+0.4%)   UKI  0.5% (+0.5%)    BNP  0.4% (-1.0%)
[USP 1.3% (-1.3%)]  BNP  0.3% (-1.6%)   [C-A 1.2% (-1.2%)]   TUS  0.2% (+0.2%)
[Ind 1.1% (-1.1%)]  SLP  0.3% (+0.2%)   [CPF 0.7% (-0.7%)]   EDP  0.0% (+0.0%)
                    Ind  0.3% (-0.4%)                        [S-A 0.6% (-0.6%)]
                    E-D  0.2% (+0.2%)                        [Com 0.4% (-0.4%)]
                    Res  0.0% (+0.0%)
                    [USP 0.1% (-0.1%)]

[Leftbehind]

Hartlepool
Lab 45.6% (+12.3%)
Con 23.8% (+9.2%)
Ind 17.6% (-2.7%)
UKI  8.2% (-3.3%)
Lib  3.7% (-15.3%)
BNP  1.0% (-0.3%)

whee...

Haha. I think this Manchester graph better represents that:


(sorry about the triple-posting, it seemed better to keep them seperate)

[Leftbehind]

Thanks.

Yorkshire & the Humber
Lab 39.6% (+10.8%)
Con 31.3% (+3.2%)
Lib 13.8% (-7.8%)
Ind  6.4% (-0.5%)
Grn  4.5% (+0.0%)
UKI  1.7% (+0.8%)
BNP  0.9% (-6.5%)
EDP  0.8% (+0.5%)
TUS  0.2% (+0.2%)
Lib* 0.1% (+0.1%)
AGS  0.1% (-0.0%)
C-G  0.1% (-0.2%)
SDP  0.1% (-0.0%)
DNt  0.0% (+0.0%)
N-F  0.0% (+0.0%)
E-F  0.0% (+0.0%)
BPP  0.0% (+0.0%)
SLP  0.0% (+0.0%)
SEP  0.0% (+0.0%)
[NHS 0.1% (-0.1%)]
[S-A 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[N-P 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[B-V 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[MRL 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[NYC 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[CPA 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[A-C 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[Bl! 0.0% (-0.0%)]

Counties;

South Yorkshire     West Yorkshire      North Yorkshire     East Riding         Lincolnshire (N/NE)
Lab 49.6% (+12.7%)  Lab 45.1% (+14.0%)  Con 38.2% (+1.4%)   Con 39.7% (+8.2%)   Con 44.2% (+4.3%)
Con 15.8% (-2.2%)   Con 29.7% (+1.3%)   Lab 26.6% (+12.2%)  Lab 30.2% (+10.4%)  Lab 41.2% (+9.7%)
Lib 12.9% (-7.0%)   Lib 12.9% (-6.0%)   Lib 17.8% (-7.2%)   Lib 15.9% (-17.1%)  Lib  6.6% (-12.5%)
Ind  7.3% (-1.9%)   Grn  5.6% (+1.1%)   Ind 10.0% (-2.2%)   Ind  9.9% (+0.5%)   Ind  4.2% (-2.4%)
Grn  5.0% (+0.0%)   Ind  2.7% (-0.4%)   Grn  6.3% (-0.6%)   Grn  1.4% (-0.4%)   UKI  2.7% (+2.7%)
UKI  3.8% (+1.3%)   UKI  1.5% (+1.0%)   Lib* 0.6% (+0.3%)   EDP  1.1% (+0.7%)   Grn  1.0% (+0.5%)
BNP  2.4% (-3.5%)   BNP  1.0% (-10.5%)  BNP  0.3% (-3.4%)   UKI  0.8% (+0.5%)   TUS  0.0% (+0.0%)
EDP  2.1% (+1.8%)   EDP  0.4% (-0.1%)   UKI  0.1% (+0.1%)   SDP  0.5% (-0.9%)   [BNP 2.3% (-2.3%)]
TUS  0.4% (+0.4%)   TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)   TUS  0.0% (+0.0%)   N-F  0.2% (+0.2%)
C-G  0.4% (-0.7%)   AGS  0.3% (+0.0%)   N-F  0.0% (+0.0%)   BNP  0.0% (-2.2%)
SLP  0.0% (+0.0%)   DNt  0.1% (+0.1%)   [AGS 0.2% (-0.2%)]  TUS  0.0% (+0.0%)
SEP  0.0% (+0.0%)   E-F  0.0% (+0.0%)   [Res 0.2% (-0.2%)]
[Res 0.7% (-0.7%)]  BPP  0.0% (+0.0%)   [MRL 0.1% (-0.1%)]
[S-A 0.0% (-0.0%)]  [Res 0.5% (-0.5%)]  [NYC 0.0% (-0.0%)] 
                    [NHS 0.2% (-0.2%)]  [EDP 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                    [N-P 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                    [B-V 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                    [S-A 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                    [CPA 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                    [A-C 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                    [Bl! 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                    [MRL 0.0% (-0.0%)]

Councils;         
               
South Yorkshire:   

         
Sheffield           Rotherham          Barnsley            Doncaster
Lab 47.9% (+13.1%)  Lab 53.9% (+9.7%)  Lab 53.3% (+14.1%)  Lab 46.2% (+13.0%)
Lib 25.9% (-8.0%)   Con 21.9% (-6.2%)  Ind 21.4% (-5.7%)   Con 19.2% (+0.0%)
Con 11.6% (-2.8%)   UKI 13.6% (+6.5%)  Con 15.3% (+1.2%)   Ind 14.3% (-4.9%)
Grn 11.2% (+1.7%)   Ind  5.0% (-1.6%)  BNP  7.2% (-6.4%)   EDP  9.4% (+7.9%)
UKI  1.8% (+0.0%)   BNP  3.6% (-4.1%)  UKI  1.4% (+1.4%)   Lib  7.0% (-10.2%)
TUS  0.7% (+0.7%)   Lib  1.5% (-4.7%)  EDP  0.4% (+0.4%)   BNP  1.6% (-1.6%)
BNP  0.4% (-2.9%)   TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)  Lib  0.4% (-5.2%)   UKI  1.0% (-0.9%)
Ind  0.2% (+0.0%)   Grn  0.2% (+0.2%)  SLP  0.3% (+0.3%)   Grn  1.0% (-3.5%)
SEP  0.0% (+0.0%)                      [Grn 0.5% (-0.5%)]  TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)
[Res 1.9% (-1.9%)]
[S-A 0.1% (-0.1%)]      

West Yorkshire:

Wakefield           Kirklees            Calderdale         Bradford             Leeds
Lab 56.1% (+17.1%)  Lab 39.7% (+13.0%)  Lab 35.1% (+8.8%)  Lab  44.8% (+14.4%)  Lab 46.7% (+14.2%)
Con 30.0% (+0.0%)   Con 30.0% (+5.1%)   Con 32.5% (+4.1%)  Con  32.2% (-0.8%)   Con 27.1% (+0.3%)
Lib  5.0% (-5.1%)   Lib 14.6% (-6.0%)   Lib 18.0% (-5.6%)  Lib  13.2% (-6.4%)   Lib 13.5% (-6.2%)
Ind  3.5% (-6.7%)   Grn 10.2% (+2.1%)   Ind  6.8% (+4.5%)  Grn   6.4% (+2.2%)   Grn  4.8% (+0.9%)
UKI  3.1% (+2.9%)   Ind  2.7% (+1.3%)   Grn  3.5% (+0.7%)  UKI   1.2% (+0.4%)   Ind  3.0% (-0.5%)
Grn  0.9% (-0.5%)   TUS  0.9% (+0.9%)   BNP  3.4% (-7.4%)  BNP   1.0% (-9.2%)   UKI  2.0% (+1.1%)
BNP  0.8% (-7.5%)   UKI  0.7% (+0.7%)   BPP  0.3% (+0.3%)  DNt   0.7% (+0.7%)   EDP  1.2% (+0.9%)
TUS  0.4% (+0.4%)   BNP  0.7% (-15.5%)  [EDP 3.6% (-3.6%)] EDP   0.1% (+0.1%)   AGS  0.8% (-0.1%)
                    EFr  0.2% (+0.2%)   [Res 2.2% (-2.2%)] [Res  0.9% (-0.9%)]  BNP  0.5% (-10.7%)
                    [NHS 1.2% (-1.2%)]                     [Ind  0.5% (-0.5%)]  TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)
                    [EDP 0.4% (-0.4%)]                     [ACP  0.1% (-0.1%)]  [Res 0.3% (-0.3%)]
                    [N-P 0.3% (-0.3%)]                     [B!P  0.0% (-0.0%)]  [CPA 0.1% (-0.1%)]
                    [Res 0.1% (-0.1%)]
                    [MRL 0.0% (-0.0%)]

North Yorkshire:

Selby               Harrogate           Craven              Richmondshire       Hambleton 
Con 56.2% (+2.1%)   Con 45.5% (+7.5%)   Con 35.6% (-9.5%)   Con 43.9% (+11.8%)  Con 68.4% (+14.4%)
Lab 37.8% (+6.3%)   Lib 30.0% (-15.9%)  Ind 35.1% (-3.3%)   Ind 37.1% (+4.7%)   Lib 14.9% (-8.6%)
Ind  5.4% (-2.6%)   Lab 15.0% (+12.5%)  Lab 17.2% (+17.2%)  Lib 16.4% (-13.2%)  Lab 11.5% (-3.2%)
Lib  0.6% (-1.3%)   Ind  9.1% (+1.0%)   Lib 10.2% (-4.4%)   Grn  2.5% (-1.9%)   Ind  5.1% (-2.1%)
[BNP 4.5% (-4.5%)]  UKI  0.3% (-0.1%)   Grn  1.8% (+1.8%)   [BNP 1.3% (-1.3%)]  [EDP 0.5% (-0.5%)]
                    [BNP 5.0% (-5.0%)]  [BNP 1.9% (-1.9%)]

 
Ryedale             Scarborough         York
Con 47.8% (+5.9%)   Con 40.5% (+5.5%)   Lab 37.9% (+14.1%)
Lib 24.3% (-13.8%)  Ind 29.9% (+0.7%)   Lib 25.7% (-2.6%)
Ind 14.0% (-2.5%)   Lab 14.8% (+7.7%)   Con 22.5% (-3.2%)
Lib*10.0% (+6.7%)   Grn  7.6% (-1.7%)   Grn 12.3% (-3.2%)
Lab  3.8% (+3.8%)   Lib  6.4% (-8.9%)   BNP  0.7% (-4.7%)
                    Lib* 0.6% (+0.6%)   Ind  0.4% (+0.4%)
                    N-F  0.1% (+0.1%)   UKI  0.2% (+0.2%)
                    [BNP 2.3% (-2.3%)]  TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)
                    [AGS 1.4% (-1.4%)]  [Res 0.6% (-0.6%)]
                    [NYC 0.4% (-0.4%)]  [Lib*0.4% (-0.4%)]
                                        [MRL 0.2% (-0.2%)]

East Riding of Yorkshire:

East Riding         Kingston upon Hull
Con 46.4% (+5.5%)   Lab 54.2% (+18.2%)
Lab 25.4% (+12.0%)  Lib 30.4% (-15.7%)
Lib 12.9% (-15.0%)  Con  6.8% (-1.0%)
Ind 11.7% (+0.7%)   UKI  2.7% (+1.5%)
Grn  1.3% (-0.4%)   Grn  1.9% (-0.2%)
EDP  1.1% (+0.5%)   N-F  1.2% (+1.2%)
SDP  0.6% (-1.3%)   EDP  1.2% (+1.2%)
UKI  0.4% (+0.4%)   Ind  0.9% (-4.5%)
[BNP 2.6% (-2.6%)]  BNP  0.3% (-1.0%)
                    TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)

Lincolnshire:

North Lincolnshire  North East Lincolnshire
Con 48.7% (+4.6%)   Lab 35.8% (+10.9%)
Lab 43.0% (+6.0%)   Con 31.1% (-3.9%)
Ind  4.0% (-1.5%)   Lib 18.5% (-11.7%)
Lib  2.5% (-7.3%)   UKI  9.4% (+9.4%)
Grn  1.3% (+1.3%)   Ind  4.8% (-3.2%)
UKI  0.4% (+0.4%)   Grn  0.2% (-0.9%)
[BNP 3.6% (-3.6%)]  TUS  0.1% (+0.1%)
                    [BNP 0.8% (-0.8%)]

[Leftbehind]

Hmm, interesting. When you consider that both parties are often targeting the same type of disaffected Labour voter, it becomes easier to understand.

[Leftbehind]

In Chelmsley Wood, sure. It's a very, very strange place; really should have incorporated it into Brum in the 70s. But generally? Not convinced that central Brighton has much in common with (say) Becontree, Bentilee or Heckmondwike. Especially as the latter type don't seem quite so disaffected these days...

Brighton's a bit unrepresentative, I think, even if it is their most successful area. My point being there's plenty in the Greens' platform that could be sold to someone who'd went from Labour>BNP - if we accept there's a substantial reactionary segment in the Labour vote, that's in the past voted for their left-wing economics, despite their left-wing social stances. Depending on the candidate, I don't see why the Greens couldn't replicate that - although, as you say, not really at the same time as a resurgent Labour.

What's with the sig, btw?

[Leftbehind]

No, as in, are you a Sunderland fan or summat?

[Leftbehind]

Back to Chemsley wood though, the turnouts in local elections are so low that there could be hardly anyone who's voted for both, I'd guess there's mostly bnp voters going back to labour and the greens gaining labour voters who never voted bnp

Hmm, I'd understand that if the Greens had never stood before and the Greens suddenly tapped into the Labour vote, but they stood in 2007, with it being a Labour/BNP fight and the Greens on 5%.

No, as in, are you a Sunderland fan or summat?

Oh yes. Very much so.

Interesting, so how'd that come about (presumably you're not from there)?

[Leftbehind]

Council-level results gifs using the figures I posted;

Labour's share of the vote:


Tory's:


Liberal's


If someone could offer a less-limited colour palate (15 or so) for each party I could probably show the changes better.