English local elections 2011

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, there is no such thread yet. So this shall be the official one.

Anyways, up this year are a third of seats in all of the MBC/MDC's and the UAs that go in thirds as well, most of the UAs that are based on large towns and which have all-out elections, and almost all District councils, including all that have all-out elections. There are also Mayoral elections in a couple of places.

As a very quick overview (something better some other time), unless something extraordinary happens the natural order of things is going to return to Sheffield, which will get a lot of attention for obvious reasons, and also Newcastle. The minority Labour administration in Leeds will probably gain a majority, and if Labour has a very good night it is possible that Birmingham (always the biggest prize in municipal politics) will fall. The situation in the Districts is unusually fluid; the LibDem polling collapse and the possible (probable?) ending of their status as an anti-Tory vote-park in certain areas means that many Districts are essentially unpredictable, which may be fun. Meanwhile, yet another attempt to hit the reboot button in Stoke doth loom.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very true. Using extreme examples to show up the general problem, West Somerset DC has only a few thousand more residents than the Sparkbrook ward in Birmingham. So, yeah. And the disparity has become more extreme since Durham went unitary.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You have to take that on a case by case basis. I'm going to attempt a brief analysis council-by-council if I get the time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Historically Sheffield was strongly Labour with a small Tory presence in the western suburbs and some Liberals/Lib Dems in the northern parishes added to the city in 1974.

Unless my memory is playing tricks it was the first big city to have a Labour majority on the council; partly because of its economic structure (domination by the steel industry meaning greater polarisation and, also, an unusually homogeneous working class with strong unions with a reputation for militancy) but also, IIRC, because the Liberals were very weak in the city.

There was also an attempt to take over city institutions by some working class radical group in the nineteenth century; the Sheffield Democrats, or something like that.

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They came very close to beating Martin Flannery in the re-drawn Sheffield Hillsborough in '83, but then he made Tony Benn look like David Owen.

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Ah; I did wonder about that at the time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder what the wards which make up the Hallam constituency will look like...

Going to be hard to attack them from the left, unfortunately. Sheffield is a very polarised city (always has been) and Hallam is the posh bit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, I'd forgotten that, but it was against Labour in 1983, and they still couldn't win.

And against a Labour candidate as generically 'unelectable' as Flannery as well.

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That came as a mild surprise to me at the time.

Anyway, places like that may be interesting over the next few years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've decided to do this region by region and so on. There might be some minor errors in terms of seats up for various reasons; corrections welcome. First, as usual, comes the North East...

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Metropolitan Boroughs

Newcastle upon Tyne

Current composition: LDem 42, Labour 33, Ind 2
Seats up: LDem 17, Labour 9, Ind 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Labour need to gain six seats in order to take control. Labour don't actually need to win any more wards than they did in 2010 in order to win back a majority in the city of T. Dan Smith, and, given the unpopularity of the government in the North East and the results in 2010, ought to be able to do so. Newcastle, incidentally, was one of Labour's strongest cities in England at the last General Election.

North Tyneside

Current composition: Labour 29, Con 24, LDem 7
Seats up: Con 10, Labour 8, LDem 2
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Labour need two seats in order to win a majority here, which shouldn't be difficult. A majority on the council won't be the same thing as control though; North Tyneside has an elected Mayor and Labour will have to wait until 2013 to pick that up.

South Tyneside

Current composition: Labour 36, Ind/Oth. 14, Con 2, LDem 2
Seats up: Labour 12, Ind 3, Oth. 1, Con 1, LDem 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Might be interesting to see how well the Indies hold up in 'normal' low turnout circumstances, but that's about it.

Gateshead

Current composition: Labour 45, LDem 20, Lib 1
Seats up: Labour 14, LDem 8
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Always Labour since reorganisation (and parts have been run by Labour without a break since the 1920s), the presence of Whickham has given a core around which a respectable opposition group can be (and has) built. Will that hold up with things as they are?

Sunderland

Current composition: Labour 52, Con 18, Ind 4, LDem 1
Seats up: Labour 17, Con 7, Ind 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: the only question is whether Labour can pull off a sweep; just about possible, but unlikely given the existence of Fulwell. Tories have a chance of saving some of their other seats provided they've learned the lessons of their overstretch-related humiliation in 2010.

Unitary Authorities

Darlington

Current composition: Labour 29, Con 18, LDem 6
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: Darlo has never been as solidly Labour as the rest of County Durham, but social polarisation and solid organisation meant that the Party held on here in 2007 despite coming 10pts behind the Tories across the borough. They'll win again this year and will make gains as well.

Stockton on Tees

Current composition: Labour 22, Ind 16, Con 13, LDem 5
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Uncertain
Comments: Labour need to make seven gains to take control. Running through the figures from last time there are about five possibilities that look to be relatively straightforward, after which things get complicated. The mass of suburbs on the Yorkshire side of the Tees are dominated by two separate groups of 'Independents'; unless swings elsewhere are massive they need to make gains there. Predicting how well organised 'independents' will do without local knowledge is tricky, so I'll pass. Anyway, the council currently has an unusual leadership arrangement; a Labour/Tory coalition with a Tory as council leader (despite having less seats).

Hartlepool

Current composition: Labour 24, Ind 14, LDem 5, Con 4
Seats up: Labour 6, Ind 6, LDem 2, Con 1, Vacant 1
Prediction: Labour majority
Comments: Monkeytown has an Independent Mayor of course; Stuart Drummond (née H'Angus The Monkey). Labour took back a majority on the council chamber in 2010 and will make further gains this year.

Redcar & Cleveland

Current composition: Labour 25, LDem 16, Con 11, Ind 7
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Labour majority
Comments: This should be fairly straightforward; Labour need to gain five seats to gain a majority, and ought to make it easily enough with things as they are. The problem is that things have changed a great deal since 2007; the LibDems suddenly started doing very well in local by-elections, the Corus works was mothballed and one of the stranger Labour losses of the last General Election happened. I tend to think that most of the factors that made that possible no longer apply (especially given that the LibDems are clearly no longer the inoffensive party of broadly centrist populist protest that many here will have assumed just a year ago) and so we'll see the sort of result we would have anyway (more or less). I may well be wrong and am happy to acknowledge as much.

Middlesbrough

Current composition: Labour 27, Ind 13, Con 6, Green 1, LDem 1
Seats up: whole council
Prediction: Labour majority
Comment: It's hard to imagine that Labour majority not growing, though by how much I've no idea given the existence of seemingly entrenched Independents. Robocop is also up for re-election; he waltzed to re-election in 2007 and presumably will do again, unless his popularity has taken a knock and there's a serious campaign being run against him. The LibDems won five seats in 2007; they seem to have scattered to the winds.

Districts

There are no Districts in the North East.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls have closed - results should be posted in this thread.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I bring news of a shocking upset: the People's Flag (that is Deepest Red) remains flying over Sunderland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you produce a resource like that, then you are not only allowed but entitled to shameless plug it here!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rumours - must stress that these are only rumours - of a bloodbath in Sheffield.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The internet is abuzz with rumours that Labour has captured the Woolton ward in Liverpool.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lab gain Wavertree (Liverpool) from former LD council leader.

Christ.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The LibDem leader of Hull City Council has conceded defeat on behalf of his party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tom Watson is speculating that Labour gains in Brum may be in double digits.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Birmingham: Lab gain Acocks Green from LD

Used to be Fox Hollies. Working class suburbs; mostly council estates. Traditionally Labour, but the LibDems made a sudden stunning breakthrough in the early 1990s and have held on ever since (with the exception of a by-election on the same day as the 2001 General Election).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mike Ion has gained College ward in Wellington

(that's in Telford & Wrekin)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LibDem meltdown in Manchester. Their leader is out, apparently some Didsbury wards are wobbling and Labour have apparently gained the City Centre ward for the first time since it was created.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reports that the LibDems may have lost every single seat they were defending in Manchester.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour take back Telford & Wrekin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It doesn't seem to have been posted on here yet that Labour won every single ward in Manchester:
http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/362/elections/5102/local_election_nominees_2011

Most of those aren't even vaguely close either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Am I interpreting correctly that this is a rather good result for Conservatives?

Not really; overall councillor numbers (and other such abstractions) can be quite misleading: they're still losing seats to Labour and in places where doing so will cost them power locally. But they're doing very well against their coalition partners in most of southern England - better than some had predicted.

Of course it's not a classic mid-term disaster for them (even if it is for Team Yellow).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surreal scenes in Brum as... well...

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-13285267

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Congratulations to James McKay if what I've heard is right and he's won Harborne. And if the result there stands after the weirdness.