English local elections 2011

[Serenity Now]

Brighton and Hove


can't post links yet I'll upload my map once I can

North Portslade, 1 Lab, 1 con
South Portslade, as above

Must win seats for labour, regaining the two seats lost in 2007 is a critical priority but shouldn't be too taxing.

Hangleton and Knoll, 3 con

Has been labour held recently, and is a major target for recovery, bpb reckons its heading for a split though, with Tories holding on to one seat. There is also a former Tory-independent in the running to complicate matters

Wish 2 con

Western Hove/Aldrington, reasonably safe, but could go to labour on a very bad night for the tories

Westbourne, 2 con

the eastern part of the pre '74 aldrington district, fairly safe, but has been designated a "cardboard " target by the greens (ie, one up from being paper candidates), they will probably only win if momentum catapaults them into a majority.

Central Hove, 2 Con

Like Westbourne, has been designated by Greens as having "cardboard" candidates, which means its less likely to fall this time as resources are ploughed into two unwinnable wards in the north of Caroline Lucas' constituency instead, still one to watch out for as the Lib Dem slump puts Labour in the running as well.

Brunswick and Adilade, 1 LD, 1 ex-LD

Apart from the two wards where they hold 1/3 seats, this is the top target for the greens, and even though the former ld cllr and two-time parliamentary candidate is standing, two relatively simple gains for the greens are the most likely outcome
 
Goldsmid, 1 con 1 grn 1 lab

The Greens’ first seat in hove is a prime target, second only to Preston Park, the greens should gain the remaining tory seat after their by election win two years ago, but Labour, could however, hold onto their seat

Hove Park, formerly known as Stanford, 1 ind, 1 con

the minority tory administration has been propped up by the independent cllr's vote since losing its majority in the private eye-induced Goldsmid by-election in 2009 (actually thats a lie, its been dependent on Labour sitting on their hands at times) ultra safe for the Tories, with normal service being restored by the independent cllr standing down

Withdean, 3 con, Has been designated a target ward by the greens, purely for being in Caroline Lucas's constituency, but will stay blue till judgement day.

Patcham and Hollingbury, 3 con

As above but labour could pick up one seat out of three, something they'll probably need to do in order to come out on top if they can't turn back the green tide in the centre of the city.

Hollingdean and Stanmer 3 lab

Contains the Sussex University campus as well as estates like Coldean and the Bates estate. Likely gains by the Greens, but likely to split with at least one labour cllr holding on

Preston Park, 1 Green, 2 Lab

The greens gained a seat here in 2003, but failed to improve on it in 2007, historically a champagne socialist area, could go either way

Saint Peter’s and North Laine, 3 green

The first ward to fall to the Greens, recent by election was won on 60% of the vote

Regency, 2 green

Gained from the Lib Dems in 2007 but shouldn’t be too difficult for the greens to hold unless Labour really pull something out of the bag

Hannover and Elm Grove, 3 green

Second safest ward for the greens, large student population and also known as “muesli mountain”

Queens Park, 3 grn

There is a potential for Labour to regain some  or all of the seats they lost in 2007, as this was a personal backlash against the ruling clique of the Labour administration.  Contains the bulk of fabulous Kemptown, but also areas of council housing, as well as the job centre, police station and county court all next to eachother.

East Brighton 3 Lab

Should be safe, Tories and Greens might run have them close if they were still in power at westminster

Moulsecoomb and Bevendean, 2 Lab, 1 Con

Tories gained a seat in 2007, unlikely for them to gain other two, another “cardboard” for the Greens and could end up split three ways, three labour cllrs is most likely though

Woodingdean, 2 con

A separate town that has clear green space on all sides, any change would probably give the two tory candidates and the returning officer heart attacks

Rottingdean Costal. 3 con

As above but includes the marina and a bit of what should probably be in the East Brighton ward


Phew.

I think that the most likely outcome is a Baden-Wuttemburg scenario, but I have doubts about the local Labour party’s willingness to enter a green-led coalition. I’m not going to attempt a more in-depth prediction, Instead, I’ll provide a map of how things would probably look if the LDs crash out and the other three parties split equally, 18 seats each

Welcome to the forum joevsimp! I'm also from Brighton.

Incidentally, here's a map I made of the 2007 results for Brighton and Hove:


Brighton and Hove 2007

[Serenity Now]

I really want to know if the audience is genuine or not...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1BKo_NlwZOQ

It's definitely not a real audience (although it's quite amuising the idea that the leader of a political party would pull a prank like that). It is a bit weird, which isn't neccessarily a bad thing. I tend to agree with joevsimp (who I'm starting to think I might have met before).

[Serenity Now]

Brighton and Hove: I've heard rumours (from a farily reputible, non-partisan source at the count) that the Greens might win a seat in Patcham - the safest Tory seat within Brighton Pavilion.

[Serenity Now]

Gains for both Greens and Labour in Brighton and Hove so far. Lib Dems wiped out.

[Serenity Now]

I haven't got any pretty maps to offer, but I did work out - in the understandable absense of any figures online - what the North East region's collective vote was and and how it differed to '07's collective vote - ie swings.

North East
Lab 50.1% (+12.0%)
Con 22.6% (-0.6%)
Lib 13.0% (-8.3%)
Ind 12.0% (+1.3%)
Grn  0.8% (+0.2%)
UKI  0.6% (-0.2%)
BNP  0.5% (-3.5%)
Prg  0.2% (-0.3%)
Lib* 0.1% (-0.1%)
New  0.1% (+0.1%)
N-F  0.0% (-0.1%)
TUS  0.0% (+0.0%)
E-F  0.0% (+0.0%)
Com  0.0% (-0.0%)
[NNP 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[Res 0.0% (-0.0%)]
[Soc 0.0% (-0.0%)]

 

I've also worked out the swings for each of the individual councils. If anyone's interested I'll post them (or if anyone knows if someone's already done this - and where).

You must always go ahead and post stuff like that: we're always interested in stuff like that, even if we don't comment

[Serenity Now]

Brighton and Hove will have to do for now..