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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results
| | |-+  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | | |-+  How did the following past third party voters vote?
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Author Topic: How did the following past third party voters vote?  (Read 1294 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: April 08, 2011, 02:12:32 am »
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Break them down by Dem/GOP/Other. If Other is significant (e.g. a lot of Nader 2000 voters would have voted for him in 2008), break that down too.

Thurmond 1948
Wallace 1968
Anderson 1980
Perot 1992
Nader 2000
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2011, 09:21:58 am »
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thurmond - 95% GOP
wallace - 95% GOP
anderson - 70% Dem
Perot - 51% Dem
Nader 45% Other, 45% Dem
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
freepcrusher
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« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2011, 09:42:36 am »
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I always thought that Reagan got to 59 percent was by gaining all the Anderson voters in his camp.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2011, 10:28:28 am »
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When I meant was e.g.

Thurmond:

McCain 95%
Obama 4%
Other 1%

Nader:

Obama: 45%
Nader: 30%
Other: 15%
McCain: 10%
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Antonio V
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E: -6.45, S: -4.87

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« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2011, 12:48:33 pm »
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Thurmond 1948 : 90% rep
Wallace 1968 : 90% rep
Anderson 1980 : 70% dem
Perot 1992 : 60% rep
Nader 2000 : 70% dem
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wormyguy
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« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2011, 01:48:38 pm »
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Thurmond - insufficient sample
Wallace - GOP 50%, Dem 35%, Oth 15% (remember that Wallace's strength was among urban whites)
Anderson - Dem 50%, GOP 30%, Oth 20%
Perot - GOP 50%, Dem 40%, Oth 10%
Nader - Oth 50%, Dem 40%, GOP 10%
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feeblepizza
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E: 4.45, S: -0.26

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« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2011, 03:53:40 pm »
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Obama winning 4% of Thurmond voters is extremely generous.
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nclib
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« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2011, 08:45:05 pm »
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Obama winning 4% of Thurmond voters is extremely generous.

Perhaps, but consider that since the voting age was 21 back then, so every living Thurmond voter in 2008 was at least 81. With such a small sample, and a potential for changing views from youth to old age, it's conceivable.
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[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2011, 05:05:32 am »
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Robert Byrd problably voted Thurmon and Obama.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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