PA-PPP: Obama tied with Romney, Huckabee & Santorum

[pbrower2a]

A sudden low point for the President, perhaps because of the bad vibes that the budgetary squabble creates, high petroleum prices, and/or because of the ambiguity in who rules Libya. If this were the situation on Election Day 2012, President Obama would LOSE much like Gore or Kerry even if he won Pennsylvania because a bunch of states (Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, foibles of Congress. Note, though,  Ohio, and Virginia would surely go to the Republican. He would lose to a political outsider like Huckabee or Romney who cannot be tied to the strife over the budget.    

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The new map:

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[California8429]

HURRAY for competition in states people started to think weren't swing states anymore

[Ben Romney]

no doubt with a good candidate like Romney or Daniels PA will be close again but Obama will win there again with 2-3% in the end.

[Bull Moose Base]

Does ppp have Obama's approvals in Georgia higher than in Pennsylvania?  Translation: I'm too lazy to check.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA shouldn't be taken for granted, Casey like Brown are odds on favorites to win, but there is no top condenters in the respective races, but Obama will have competetion in PA and OH.

[Ben Romney]

Last year a very good election year for the Republicans the Governor race was very close!
next year will be more black and young voters as last year!

[Grumpier Than Thou]

My neighbors are starting to wake up!

JERSEY/PA UNION FOR RON PAUL 2012!

[Reaganfan]

Good news for Republicans is that next year I expect the youth and African American turnout to be significantly lower than it was in 2008.

[California8429]

Good news for Republicans is that next year I expect the youth and African American turnout to be significantly lower than it was in 2008.

and more republican. I don't expect republicans to be close to winning the groups, but I do believe outreach will be much greater this time around

[The Professor]

Pennsylvania is trending strongly Republican because all the young kids are leaving the state in droves. Pennsylvania has the highest migration among the youth out of any state. I would know; I am a professor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My neighbors are starting to wake up!

JERSEY/PA UNION FOR RON PAUL 2012!

Ron Paul... lol

Sigh...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This is definitely an outlier, toss it. If Ohio gave Obama a 47-46 approval rating with Obama crushing the Republicans (according to PPP), there's no way he'd be performing this poorly in PA.

Anyways the ideology numbers don't fit reality. 27-33-40 for a Liberal-Moderate-Conservative split definitely does not fit 2008's 23-50-27 split.

[pbrower2a]

Good news for Republicans is that next year I expect the youth and African American turnout to be significantly lower than it was in 2008.

and more republican. I don't expect republicans to be close to winning the groups, but I do believe outreach will be much greater this time around

Not likely enough. The Tea Party will remain loud -- and rub people the wrong way -- because it doesn't have a clue. The anti-intellectualism of the GOP is just the ticket for people with brains but little money that they will never have a chance.

The GOP learned nothing from its defeats in 2006 and 2008 except to be more devious, ruthless, dishonest, shrill, and demagogic. Once back in power it has had little to offer but stale Culture Ears and the enrichment of the "right people" at the expense of everyone else.

[Mehmentum]

Either Pennsylvania has changed massively over the past few years, Obama is in metaphorical freefall, or this poll is wrong.

[pbrower2a]

This is definitely an outlier, toss it. If Ohio gave Obama a 47-46 approval rating with Obama crushing the Republicans (according to PPP), there's no way he'd be performing this poorly in PA.

Anyways the ideology numbers don't fit reality. 27-33-40 for a Liberal-Moderate-Conservative split definitely does not fit 2008's 23-50-27 split.

Most likely it reflects a nasty situation in Libya, high oil prices, and the impasse over the federal budget. Guess who the President is? Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney won't have to say what they would do about the impasse. Such things can shape the electorate, as happened in 2010. Sure, it is possible that PPP has an unrepresentative sample by polling heavily in central Pennsylvania and lightly in Pittsburgh and greater Philadelphia, but that requires that one know something people at PPP know.

But here's a nice little hint: if asked to say who they trust more on the budget - President Obama or House Republicans -- another PPP poll gives President Obama a 48-42 edge nationwide.  If the election were being held today, then President Obama would probably lose to Huckabee or Romney (but not to liar Gingrich or nuts like Palin or Bachmann) while the House Republican majority is wiped out.  If he can't win Pennsylvania decisively,  then he loses all the dominoes that the GOP nominee for President absolutely must win and is probably losing states like Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire and is shaky in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

The election isn't being held today. The political process shows no sign of resolution and won't for some time. Much will change.

[Bull Moose Base]

Our politijunkie perspective is warped.  No one is paying attention to budget fights or the details of Libya.  They probably know basic outlines: government almost shut down or something, we're bombing Libya.  They know oil price went up.  But mostly the approvals don't line up with GA, NC, OH.  Outlier 

[King]

Yes, yes.  We all know Pennsylvanians likes to sleep around with the GOP candidate, but they always come back to their Democratic wives in the end.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yes, yes.  We all know Pennsylvanians likes to sleep around with the GOP candidate, but they always come back to their Democratic wives in the end.

Thank God Phil isn't here to read what you just wrote. He'd become apoplectic.

[Lief 🗽]

Good news for Republicans is that next year I expect the youth and African American turnout to be significantly lower than it was in 2008.

Hooray for fewer people voting!

[Eraserhead]

I'd guess that this is an outlier. If not, ouch.

[Nichlemn]

Probably something of an outlier, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were some truth in this and PA ends up having a tied or slightly GOP PVI in 2012. (In other words, Obama might still win and it and the election comfortably, but it could well trend a little bit GOP).

[feeblepizza]

With the right candidate - Daniels or Huck - the GOP can pick it up, or at least it will be close and winnable for 2016.

[pbrower2a]

I'd guess that this is an outlier. If not, ouch.

It could be a time-based outlier more than a state-based outlier. Approvals for about everything in politics is down this week, probably due to the crass role-playing that many politicians are doing. Political junkies may be taking sides as vehemently as ever, but the rest of the American public sees everyone falling short.

Take a good look at this little gem also from PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0412513.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

48% national approval during the political impasse when few people get what they want  isn't too bad. 42% is dreadful. Congressional Republicans may have convinced voters in November 2010 have either failed to deliver or have delivered something that people don;t want. Maybe the 2010 elections are an example of bait-and-switch. Take a good look at the estimates of how people see both Parties as "extremist".  Something really is rotten in America, and maybe the wishy-washy politicians of the recent past weren't so bad after all, and stealth politicians good at lining up financial support while keeping their ideology hidden behind glittering generalities and plain-folks rhetoric during the election do badly in office as they push ideological objectives.

Only pathological people like to see themselves as extremists.  Extremists lose in all but 'safe' districts once they are shown to be such through actions in office.

Not since about 150 years ago -- and we know what was happening then, don't we? -- have American politics been so polarized.  Rarely have American politics been so dysfunctional at a national level.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War

I'm not saying that things can or will get that bad. People still see elections as solutions and want the cops to deal firmly with any political violence.

[Brittain33]

Hard for me to toss this as an outlier given Obama's poor showing in a Florida MD poll this week. I know, this is all apples to oranges and non-scientific and such, but my antennae are up...

[krazen1211]

A lot of PA's Reagan Democrats are perhaps coming home.