Governors' statewide popularity
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #125 on: November 19, 2011, 05:05:01 AM »

Could John Kasich be the next Robert Taft? Ohio sure knows how to pick them.

Kasich doesn't quite have the pedigree. Other than that? Taft got caught up in a culture of corruption in Ohio politics. Kasich isn't so much corrupt as he is doctrinaire, the latter creating its own problems. I doubt that he saw the consequences of his choices. 

America over-reacted to slow economic improvement and got some really-bad government.  We may be getting a harsh civics lesson -- basically, don't count on the politicians to get us the economic results that we want. Getting good economic results isn't as easy as it looks.   

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California still has the paradise climates and spectacular scenery along the coastline, so it is going to remain attractive even in hard times. Who would want to move to Houston from the San Francisco Bay Area or San Diego?  If the cost of living is high, so are the wages. Californians are far less mobile than Americans elsewhere. Proposition 13 has given people a strong incentive to not relocate because anyone who buys a new house has to pay the higher tax rates on newer housing; the tax rate on a heavily-appreciated piece of property is nearly frozen. Local governments need supermajorities just to raise taxes, and it has been that way since 1978.

With the high costs of real estate California has lots of young adults staying in the old nest... and they have strong incentives to stay with their parents even if such hinders their careers. 


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #126 on: November 22, 2011, 10:34:03 PM »

Arizona, PPP. This may be on the whole as relevant to the prospective Senate race as to the Presidency. Whatever allure the GOP has had in Arizona has largely vanished:

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I predict that the Democrats are going to need plenty of bottled water to campaign effectively in Arizona in 2012. The Senate seat will probably mean more to President Obama than will the 11 electoral votes. 

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Probably his last term. Becoming irrelevant?

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1122.pdf

------------------------

One can't win with this sort of disapproval; thus the open seat. This could reflect demographic change. He has been a Senator for a very long time, so the "not sure" indicates that many Arizona voters are having a hard time deciding whether they would vote for him if he were running for re-election.

The Republicans may be overstaying their welcome in Arizona. What happened recently in Colorado may be happening in Arizona in part due to changing demographics (a fast-growing Mexican-American contingent of the electorate).

The writing is on the wall for a GOP disaster in Arizona.

A warning to the GOP:

TEXAS
 is the next GOP disaster for much the same reason as Arizona is now
.




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         295
GOP advantage                                             127      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 48



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 73
Huge 163

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #127 on: November 30, 2011, 02:17:32 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2011, 02:26:56 PM by pbrower2a »

PPP, Pennsylvania. Corbett is back underwater politically, and he doesn't look like much help for any Republican nominee in 2012 in a state that could make a huge difference.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_1129513.pdf

In such arguable swing states as Arizona (11), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10), unpopular Republican Governors might have a hard time getting the Republican presidential nominee any aid through good-old-fashioned electioneering. Those states have 110 electoral votes, and the Republican nominee will need at least half of their electoral votes to have a reasonable chance to win.    




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 0
Slight 48



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 54
Modest 93
Huge 163


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #128 on: December 06, 2011, 03:24:22 PM »
« Edited: December 06, 2011, 04:59:46 PM by pbrower2a »

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It's a good thing for Rick Scott that military coups don't happen in America's states. I understand that Florida doesn't have recall elections, but I wouldn't be surprised if people are looking for grounds for impeachment.  When one's approval rating is about half the percentage that one won with a year earlier, something has to be fishy, and I am not referring to the finny creatures of lakes, rivers, and seas in or surrounding the state. Incompetence? Corruption?

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1205.pdf

One possible consequence, not that I am looking at the US Congress here as my primary focus:

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Florida has 27 (6%) of the 435 Congressional Representatives. The generic ballot for Congress  shows a gap of 6% in favor of the Democrats. That suggests that a big chunk of the Florida Congressional delegation will switch from R to D as the result of the 2012 election. Any Republican in a district less R than R+3 will be vulnerable.

"L" stands for December, 12th month of the year, and not in Rick Scott's case, "LOSER".



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 0
Slight 48



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 54
Modest 93
Huge 163
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #129 on: December 08, 2011, 05:50:50 PM »

Doing fine here:

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"L" stands for December, 12th month of the year.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 0
Slight 48



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 54
Modest 93
Huge 163

[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #130 on: December 10, 2011, 11:39:17 AM »

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Campaign staffers from 2008 have been indicted. Enough said.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 125
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 54
Modest 93
Huge 163

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #131 on: December 11, 2011, 12:42:36 PM »
« Edited: December 12, 2011, 07:34:12 PM by pbrower2a »

The other Carolina:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nikki Haley is handling her job as governor of South Carolina?

 http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804&ekmensel=fee512e3_566_0_9804_3
   

All
   
34.6%  approve/  43.0% disapprove

Only those with an opinion
   
44.6% approve/   55.4% disapprove
   

Really, I thought that she would be doing better than that. Nikki Haley looks as if she will be of no use to the Republican nominee for President.

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The GOP is going to have to expend a huge amount of resources  to keep South Carolina from voting for Barack Obama and perhaps protecting Senator Graham. The state is within range of you-know-who. I'd love to see the generic ballot for the US Congress for South Carolina.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 125
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #132 on: December 16, 2011, 02:08:31 PM »

Republican Bob McDonnell is doing fine in Virginia even if the President and the two Democratic Senators are doing well there:


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I guess that any politicians who do their jobs well and don't push extreme agendas will do fine in 2012.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 125
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #133 on: December 17, 2011, 09:09:31 AM »

New Indiana poll by Ball State University:

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Mitch Daniels is doing?

52% Approve
28% Disapprove

http://cms.bsu.edu/Academics/CentersandInstitutes/BowenCenter/PolicyResearch/HoosierSurvey2011.aspx

...

OK, so they polled Indiana - but NO presidential poll once again *GRRRR* *HEAD EXPLODES !*
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #134 on: December 17, 2011, 01:44:15 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2011, 08:41:39 AM by pbrower2a »

New Indiana poll by Ball State University:

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Mitch Daniels is doing?

52% Approve
28% Disapprove

http://cms.bsu.edu/Academics/CentersandInstitutes/BowenCenter/PolicyResearch/HoosierSurvey2011.aspx

...

OK, so they polled Indiana - but NO presidential poll once again *GRRRR* *HEAD EXPLODES !*

Maybe they will get to the Presidential matchups in a couple of days. Lots of statewide issues were brought up.  In view of how Republican Governors are doing in Michigan and Ohio and in near-neighboring Wisconsin, this seems a bit high. Perhaps Governor Mitch Daniels shrewdly avoids doing things that might inflame voters.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             118      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 136
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #135 on: December 18, 2011, 01:56:37 AM »


OK, so they polled Indiana - but NO presidential poll once again *GRRRR* *HEAD EXPLODES !*

Maybe they will get to the Presidential matchups in a couple of days. Lots of statewide issues were brought up. 

No, the poll is already on their site for quite a while and it was done in mid-November ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #136 on: December 20, 2011, 07:40:44 AM »

Another popular GOP governor:

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

"Nearing the end of her first year in office, Governor Martinez has a 65% approval/29% disapproval rating for her job handling."

http://nmpolitics.net/Documents/1220.POSPollOnMartinez.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #137 on: December 20, 2011, 08:50:00 AM »

Another popular GOP governor:

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

"Nearing the end of her first year in office, Governor Martinez has a 65% approval/29% disapproval rating for her job handling."

http://nmpolitics.net/Documents/1220.POSPollOnMartinez.pdf

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That is what I consider effective. See also McDonnell in Virginia. (Only one data point on Daniels in Indiana -- sorry!)

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             118      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 136
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #138 on: December 20, 2011, 08:47:43 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2011, 10:41:35 PM by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac on Cuomo as Governor of New York. It is an A-B-C-D-F poll instead of the traditional "approve-disapprove",

A 10  B 53  C 25 D 6 F 3

Any way you cut it, 53% B is good everywhere but grad school and bond ratings.    

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             118      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 136
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #139 on: January 12, 2012, 08:58:36 PM »

The first statewide poll of approval of a Governor since before Christmas and the first of 2012:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1688

In this case, "A" is definitely not a letter grade.
 

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             118      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 136
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #140 on: January 13, 2012, 06:37:04 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2012, 10:17:14 PM by pbrower2a »

As a rule, ratings for any governor must be removed when that governor

(1) dies
(2) resigns
(3) is removed through impeachment, or
(4) comes to the end of his allotted term without having been re-elected.

This time it is Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi.

 

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             112      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #141 on: January 17, 2012, 11:03:19 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2012, 10:45:16 AM by pbrower2a »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_Gov%20011312.pdf

I am surprised that Republicans aren't making much of the fact that the feminine form of the past participle of the French verb perdre (to lose) is perdue (lost). With constituencies that distrust the knowledge of a foreign language, perhaps only a Democrat could think of that.

"A" is for January, first month of the year, and as with Rick Scott in Florida, it is definitely not a letter grade.

 
Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             112      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #142 on: January 18, 2012, 10:51:44 AM »

Quinnipiac uses letter grades to rate Governor Chris Christie in New Jersey. Rating "A" and "B" as approval and "D" and "F" as disapproval, we get this:

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That is very good for a Republican governor who has been through a full year in a very D-leaning state  -- 52-26. I'd say that that shows an effective Governor. 

 
Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             112      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #143 on: January 19, 2012, 06:05:48 PM »

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Ugly. 
 
Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             112      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 140
Huge 163






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #144 on: January 25, 2012, 07:26:53 PM »


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Unfamiliar poster. It looks like an outlier until one looks at an Obama-vs. Romney matchup:

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         305
GOP advantage                                             122      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 10
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 140
Huge 153
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #145 on: January 27, 2012, 11:27:21 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2012, 01:45:24 AM by pbrower2a »

PPP, Minnesota

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012712.pdf

President Obama isn't going to need any help in Minnesota, anyway. The only ways in which he appears in Minnesota will be to help someone win a Congressional election (Amy Klobuchar will need no help) or in the wake of some natural disaster.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             122      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 10
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 140
Huge 163

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #146 on: January 28, 2012, 10:24:32 AM »
« Edited: January 28, 2012, 10:26:13 AM by pbrower2a »

Bob McDonnell continues to outperform almost all other Republicans.

The final political question added to the survey by Mason-Dixon asked about Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell's job performance. A majority of likely voters, 63 percent, rate McDonnell's performance as either "excellent" or "pretty good," while only 30 percent think he is doing an "only fair" or "poor" job.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/poll-shows-kain.php

"A" is not a letter grade here, but it might as well be.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white



Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             122      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 10
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 140
Huge 163


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #147 on: February 02, 2012, 10:58:12 AM »

Time to update your maps with a new set of polls for the Rocky Mountain governors:

http://www2.coloradocollege.edu/stateoftherockies/conservation_west_survey/Politics_in_West.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #148 on: February 02, 2012, 11:04:16 AM »

Brownback is in negative territory:

36-49

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=47a767c3-dff1-4a91-b02d-49b068e3cc6f
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greenforest32
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« Reply #149 on: February 02, 2012, 11:18:24 AM »

Another recent poll for Oregon Governor: http://news.opb.org/article/poll-shows-oregonians-turning-optimistic-about-states-direction/

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