Governors' statewide popularity
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #25 on: April 27, 2011, 05:55:03 PM »
« edited: April 27, 2011, 08:56:08 PM by pbrower2a »

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http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/dems-favored-for-wv-gov.html

For a state bordering on two states with new and unpopular Republican governors (Ohio and Pennsylvania), the new Governor of West Virginia is doing very well.

Oh -- he's a Democrat! Maybe that makes a difference.

President Obama still seems to be the wrong sort of Democrat to win the Presidency with the aid of West Virginia. He lost this state by a huge margin in 2008. With the right Democrat, West Virginia is a legitimate swing state -- in 2016.

The state used to be one of the most reliable states for Democratic nominees for President. Carter won it in 1980 and Dukakis won it in 1988 in blowout wins for Reagan and the elder Bush, respectively. It is not a true Southern state in that race has little influence upon political life. It has two Democratic Senators, Joe Manchin a decisive winner in a year of a Republican tide.   

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             135      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 8
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 14
Huge 180

 

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Yelnoc
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« Reply #26 on: April 27, 2011, 06:19:46 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2011, 07:57:08 PM by SoIA Yelnoc »

Updated to include the Iowa and West Virginia governor approval ratings and Obama's approval in Nevada.  I think the best way to think of this map is as an overlay of the Presidential Approval Ratings.  Maybe on a whole slightly more accurate but another overlay (IMO one of Generic R's approvals) is needed to filter out the statistical noise.

  0.0%   to    1%            white
  1.1%   to    5%       ... color 30%
  5.1%   to   10%       ... color 40%
10.1%   to  15%       ... color 50%
15.1% or greater      ... color 60%
Washington D.C           red 90%

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: April 27, 2011, 09:37:26 PM »

Updated to include the Iowa and West Virginia governor approval ratings and Obama's approval in Nevada.  I think the best way to think of this map is as an overlay of the Presidential Approval Ratings.  Maybe on a whole slightly more accurate but another overlay (IMO one of Generic R's approvals) is needed to filter out the statistical noise.

PPP polled Nevada and West Virginia last weekend and will surely release results of approval of the Governor of Nevada and of President Obama in West Virginia. I don't expect President Obama to crack even 40% approval in West Virginia -- as I say, he is the wrong sort of Democrat for West Virginia, too much the egghead to win the state.

I wouldn't bother with "Mr. Generic Republican", last known as Ronald Reagan. Reagan had no clear association with any region of the US; if there were such a candidate and there were an election today, "Mr. Generic Republican" would win. "Mr. Generic Republican" is even less relevant than at least two histrionic characters who have gone off the deep end, let alone some fantastically-unpopular Republican Governors.   One can't rule out some electoral disasters for the GOP -- yet -- but the appearance of a miracle candidate who can defeat President Obama is unlikely. The two likely candidates doing best are Washington outsiders who have scrupulously committed themselves to bland positions.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2011, 03:37:55 PM »

Nevada, PPP. Brian Sandoval is doing fine despite being one of the new Republican governors:

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             141      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 14
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 14
Huge 180

 


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Yelnoc
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« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2011, 07:58:19 PM »

Updated to include Nevada.

  0.0%   to    1%            white
  1.1%   to    5%       ... color 30%
  5.1%   to   10%       ... color 40%
10.1%   to  15%       ... color 50%
15.1% or greater      ... color 60%
Washington D.C           red 90%

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #30 on: May 04, 2011, 04:04:49 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2011, 10:59:34 AM by pbrower2a »

Missouri, PPP

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0504513.pdf

It looks as if Governor Nixon could help any Democratic candidate in 2012 -- including President Obama and Senator McCaskill.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             141      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 14
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190

 



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2011, 07:52:10 PM »

Arizona update. Very close to a tie, although essentially the same as in January.

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This state may be tiring of Republican pols:

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The limited popularity of the Governor may be less relevant than the fading evaluations of the state's two veteran Senators.  I can now understand why Jon Kyl isn't running for re-election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0505.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             141      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 14
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190
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strangeland
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« Reply #32 on: May 07, 2011, 01:34:26 PM »

This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

Well, it depends. If West Virginia or Arkansas has a Democratic governor with high approval ratings, it's not going to be of very much help to Obama. However, if a polarizing, ideological figure like Scott Walker has low approval ratings, it's going to help him quite a bit. If Chris Christie has high approvals in NJ, it might help the Republican candidate, though not enough to make a difference.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #33 on: May 08, 2011, 05:39:54 AM »

This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

Well, it depends. If West Virginia or Arkansas has a Democratic governor with high approval ratings, it's not going to be of very much help to Obama. However, if a polarizing, ideological figure like Scott Walker has low approval ratings, it's going to help him quite a bit. If Chris Christie has high approvals in NJ, it might help the Republican candidate, though not enough to make a difference.

Also... notice that I have Virginia in deep blue for now, with a Governor who has (so far as the latest poll shows) enough popularity to be of help to a Republican nominee for President. At the least, a Democrat (whether Obama or the Senate candidate) can't simply go on the stump, call out the name "Bob McDonnell" and elicit jeers at an unpopular Governor. Such might be red meat for the Democratic base, but it would be unattractive to independents. A Republican nominee can appear often on the podium soon after the Governor and use his popularity. Contrast Rick Scott in Florida, who can now easily be used as an illustration in Florida of all that is wrong with the GOP.  Unless miracles happen for Governor Rick Scott, any Republican nominee will want to stay clear of him. Florida and Virginia are both legitimate swing states, but with the same sort of approval going into October 2012, President Obama could conceivably win Florida and lose Virginia. If that level of approval is 50% or so. then he wins anyway, but if it is 47% or so, then the desirability of a Governor of the opposite Party may make the difference in the state. 

But even if the difference is of intensity of popularity of a Governor,  then the Presidential race may still hinge upon the effectiveness of the Governor as a politician. This model suggests that a state that was close in 2008 that has a popular Democratic governor (Nixon in Missouri) might offer a good chance for a pick-up in a state generally understood to be (Lean-R). But with Republican Governors with shaky support in states that should reasonably be Lean R (Arizona, Georgia), things might not go as smoothly as they do in Texas for a Republican nominee.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #34 on: May 10, 2011, 10:17:22 PM »

Belated discovery -- Quinnipiac, Connecticut: Rules are rules, and I'm not going to suppress a discovery.

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             148      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: May 13, 2011, 05:13:19 PM »

Zogby update of New Jersey. The President's approval took off, but gubernatorial approval didn't change. Nothing changes except the letter for the month.

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Hughes_Center_Poll_Says_Obama_Still_Strong_in_NJ_2011_0513rev.pdf




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             148      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #36 on: May 16, 2011, 06:21:17 AM »
« Edited: May 16, 2011, 06:23:07 AM by pbrower2a »

Hawaii checks in:

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http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/14649236/hawaii-poll-half-of-island-voters-approve-of-governor-in-first-six-months-of-term

Hawaii has monotonous weather and monotonous politics.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         204
GOP advantage                                             148      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 194


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #37 on: May 18, 2011, 08:50:49 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2011, 08:52:21 AM by pbrower2a »

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http://www.criticalinsights.com/assets/CriticalInsightsTrackingSurveySpring2011.pdf

My comment:

Governor LePage got his chance to impress Maine voters -- and has likely become an unwitting asset to President Obama and poison for Senator Snowe.  This is a huge drop from the results of a PPP poll from March.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         204
GOP advantage                                             148      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 0
Huge 198



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #38 on: May 18, 2011, 04:21:42 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2011, 03:28:04 PM by pbrower2a »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WA_0518424.pdf

She apparently isn't running for re-election; if she did she might put Washington at risk for the President.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         204
GOP advantage                                             160      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 100
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 0
Huge 198




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #39 on: May 18, 2011, 10:20:12 PM »

Chris Christie slips underwater:

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http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP39_1.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         218
GOP advantage                                             146      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 100
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 30
Modest 0
Huge 198
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #40 on: May 19, 2011, 01:33:46 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2011, 12:45:37 PM by pbrower2a »

North Carolina (Civitas):

51% Approve
45% Disapprove

(Gov. Perdue)

46% Approve
41% Disapprove

This poll of 600 registered general election voters in North Carolina was conducted May 10-11, 2011 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2011/civitas-poll-perdue-job-approval-remains-under-50-percent

Huge shift in two months. What did she do right?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0519.pdf

But PPP has yet to show it, although she is catching up to all Republican opponents. The PPP poll ends later, so it is the one that I must use:

North Carolina Survey Results

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         189
GOP advantage                                             146      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 99
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 30
Modest 0
Huge 198

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #41 on: May 24, 2011, 01:48:53 PM »

Poll from Texas -- Texas Tribune/University of Texas:


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http://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/uttt-201105-summary-day2.pdf

Are Texans beginning to tire of Dubya's successor? It has been ten long years. You can probably forget him as a VP candidate if he isn't "that strong" in a state that isn't going to vote for President Obama, who has an approval rating of 35% in Texas.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         151
GOP advantage                                             109      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 61
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 7


Democratic advantage:

Slight 68
Modest 0
Huge 198


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The Professor
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« Reply #42 on: May 24, 2011, 01:59:04 PM »

pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #43 on: May 24, 2011, 02:39:13 PM »

pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls
Vhat?  Chicks dig maps!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #44 on: May 24, 2011, 03:04:54 PM »

pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls


I didn't expect to color Texas pink today!
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Person Man
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« Reply #45 on: May 24, 2011, 04:50:02 PM »

pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls


I didn't expect to color Texas pink today!

Well yeah, you watched Full Metal Jacket, right?

Anyways, I am guessing Texas is some kind of a Federal Government expirement to see how far right you could push a large political entity before people start to hate you.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #46 on: May 24, 2011, 07:42:30 PM »

pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls


I didn't expect to color Texas pink today!

Well yeah, you watched Full Metal Jacket, right?

Anyways, I am guessing Texas is some kind of a Federal Government expirement to see how far right you could push a large political entity before people start to hate you.

I've never seen Full Metal Jacket, but that would seem the wrong flick for getting the girls.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #47 on: May 24, 2011, 08:13:08 PM »

We finally see a tie, thanks to Fairleigh Dickinson College, New Jersey, and Chris Christie:

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2011/blue/

Quote
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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     21
Obama advantage                                         137
GOP advantage                                             109      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 61
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 21


Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 0
Huge 198



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #48 on: May 25, 2011, 03:03:23 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2011, 03:30:27 PM by pbrower2a »

Ohio. The good news for the Governor is that he is more popular than ex-Cavalier LeBron James and Michigan Wolverines Football.

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Hint: if you are a conservative politician, do not bait the police.

Mediocre popularity of the Speaker of the House in his own state:

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But a bad omen for the congressional Republicans, at least in Ohio:


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Governor Kasich would probably win against this guy, though, and maybe the Communist Party nominee for Governor:

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....

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0525.pdf


Also in Big Ten country:

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It looks like an improvement, but that is from a Rasmussen poll.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0525930.pdf

Politically, Florida seems more Midwestern than anything else:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1604



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white




Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                     21
Obama advantage                                         137
GOP advantage                                             109      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 61
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 21


Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 0
Huge 198



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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #49 on: May 25, 2011, 03:14:48 PM »

To complete your map:

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - 54% Approve, 20% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/121836484.html

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) - 48% Approve, 40% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.7NEWS.Suffolk.Marginals.April.5.2011.pdf

Maryland: Martin O’Malley (D) - 58% Approve, 30% Disapprove

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20January%202011.pdf

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - 36% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_0203.pdf

Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - 31% Approve, 61% Disapprove

http://weaskamerica.com/2011/03/21/tenacious-gadfly/

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - 43% Approve, 48% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=8ca630fe-ac5d-451c-b92d-72581e3b66a6
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