Governors' statewide popularity

[pbrower2a]

Assuming that President Obama has two full terms as President, this fellow could be next:

September 20, 2011 - Storm Surge Takes Cuomo Approval To All-Time High, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Gov To Speak Up On Redistricting

An 86 - 7 percent approval rating for his handling of Tropical Storms Irene and Lee pushes New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to a 66 - 17 percent overall approval rating, the highest score for any governor in states surveyed by Quinnipiac University and among the highest for any New York governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Approval ratings for Gov. Cuomo are 72 - 14 percent among Democrats, 61 - 20 percent among Republicans and 61 - 21 percent among independent voters. He gets a 62 - 21 percent thumbs up from New York City voters, 74 - 7 percent from suburban voters and 64 - 19 percent from upstate voters. Men approve 65 - 17 percent while women approve 66 - 17 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1647

This may be more relevant to 2016 than to 2012 (New York is a slam dunk for President Obama or else he is through). Now for someone running against President Obama in 2012:

Texas Survey Results

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

--------------------------


Quinnipiac, Florida: Rick Scott remains in "execrable" territory:

Florida voters, especially women, like Gov. Rick Scott more as a person, but all voters still disapprove 50 - 37 percent of the job he's doing, in a Quinnipiac University poll released today, compared to a 52 - 35 percent disapproval August 5 and a 57 - 29 percent disapproval May 25.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1649

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white






  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 40
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Daniel Malloy’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 36%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Awful! That's almost the realm of Rick Scott, Scott Walker, and John Kasich. Don't expect him to be a featured speaker at the Democratic National Convention next year or to appear on the same stage as President Obama.  

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Malloy’s handling of Hurricane Irene?
Approve .......................................................... 68%
Disapprove...................................................... 19%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Fading in significance.  

Q3 If you could do last year’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat
Daniel Malloy or Republican Tom Foley?
Daniel Malloy .................................................. 41%
Tom Foley ....................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CT_0929424.pdf






  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206

[Simfan34]

I'm new to this, so why isn't RI white?

[a Person]

I'm new to this, so why isn't RI white?

RI is white.

Anyways, Iowa is inconsistent. On the first map it is 20 or 30% green, so on the second map it should be 20 or 30% red, not blue.

[pbrower2a]

I'm new to this, so why isn't RI white?

The governor Lincoln Chaffee is an independent, so he cannot offer partisan advantage for any nominee. DC has no Governor, so it is also in white.

white -- no governor,  Independent governor, or an exact  tie.

[pbrower2a]

I'm new to this, so why isn't RI white?

RI is white.

Anyways, Iowa is inconsistent. On the first map it is 20 or 30% green, so on the second map it should be 20 or 30% red, not blue.

Corrected in the latest map. Thank you.

[a Person]

I'm new to this, so why isn't RI white?

The governor Lincoln Chaffee is an independent, so he cannot offer partisan advantage for any nominee. DC has no Governor, so it is also in white.

white -- no governor,  Independent governor, or an exact  tie.

No, that's yellow.

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow. 

Like Minnesota, for example.

[pbrower2a]

Florida Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 36%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

From the atrocious to the execrable. Wow!

Q2 If you could do last year’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican Rick
Scott or Democrat Alex Sink?
Rick Scott........................................................ 41%
Alex Sink......................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable........................................................ 51%
Unfavorable .................................................... 34%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

It's possible to warm up a bit to a lemon as you try to pretend that what you thought was an astute purchase wasn't so bad after all. But not much. Oh, the car was flooded and the dealer didn't tell you about that? It still has nice leg room and a good trunk.  

Q4 Do you think Charlie Crist should become a
Democrat or not?
He should........................................................ 45%
He should not.................................................. 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 30%

Maybe he can do much good as the titular head of "Republicans for Obama". Think of Jeane Kirkpatrick or  Zell Miller at a Republican National Convention in recent years, and you get the general idea.

Q5 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Rick Scott and Charlie Crist,
running as a Democrat, who would you vote
for?
Rick Scott........................................................ 38%
Charlie Crist .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Nostalgia for moderation and integrity. What a concept!

Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 45%
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

Not far off from 2008 results. 2010 was very different.  

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white






  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia

Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Bill Maloney and Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Bill Maloney........... 46%
Earl Ray Tomblin... 47%
Undecided............. 7%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Maloney?
Favorable........................................................ 44%
Unfavorable .................................................... 33%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve................. 44%
Disapprove............ 32%
Not sure ................ 23%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 28%
Disapprove...................................................... 63%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/west-virginia-race-looking-too-close-to-call.html

Not "too close to call" anymore! Governor Tomblin won.

http://wvgazette.com/News/201110042458

Because the re-election of a Governor suggests that people already know him there is no need to restart the  map for a state. Note that I accepted the continuation of the approval ratings of re-elected Governors earlier and still do.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206

[pbrower2a]

Not "too close to call" anymore! Governor Tomblin won.

http://wvgazette.com/News/201110042458

Because the re-election of a Governor suggests that people already know him there is no need to restart the  map for a state. Note that I accepted the continuation of the approval ratings of re-elected Governors earlier and still do.

This one is straightforward (Maryland):

Statewide, 52% of Maryland voters approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor, while 40% disapprove, with 8% offering no opinion

.

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20October%202011.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie would have won, Garden State voters say, but they back his decision not to run for president 8-1. They seem glad to be stuck with him and give him a 58 - 38 percent job approval rating, his best score ever, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. A big swing from women lifts him from a 47 - 46 percent score August 17.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1660

Currently, Governor Christie earns a 54% approve to 38% disapprove job rating among all
Garden State residents. Among registered voters, his rating stands at 55% approve to 37% disapprove.
This is the highest rating he has ever received in the Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll, topping
the 50% he received among registered voters in early August.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP41_1.pdf

All above 15%, so it is all a matter of taste -- and the applicable rule would give the same result on the map.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

WWL-TV (CBS 4, New Orleans)/Clarus.

Bob Jindal is doing OK and will be re-elected easily.

“Gov. Jindal is in very good shape politically right now. He's poised to win re-election in landslide victory,” said Dr. Ron Faucheux, who conducted the poll for WWL-TV.

The landline and cell phone poll of 602 likely voters statewide shows Jindal is strongest among Republicans (87 percent). He wins 50 percent of the independent vote and scores 29 percent of the vote among the Democrats surveyed.

The other candidates in the race scored in the single digits: David Blanchard, 2 percent; Cary Deaton, 2 percent; Scott Lewis, 2 percent; Trey Roberts, 2 percent; Bob Lang, 1 percent; Niki Bird Papazoglakis, 1 percent. Lenny Bollingham and Ron Ceasar did not score any points in the survey.

Seventy-three percent of white voters approve of the job he is doing, compared to 35 percent of blacks. But Jindal’s overall approval rating is the highest of anyone tested in the state at 63 percent. His disapproval rating is 32 percent.

http://www.wwltv.com/news/politics/Gov-Jindal-well-ahead-in-WWLTV-poll-131632313.html

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 102
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216

[pbrower2a]

Whoever the Republican nominee is, he (or she) will need Ohio. Governor Kasich will be of no help, as if anything really changes in the Buckeye State :

Ohio Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor John
Kasich’s job performance?
Approve.................. 37%
Disapprove............. 54%
Not sure ................. 10%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted
Strickland or Republican John Kasich?
Ted Strickland ................................................... 54%
John Kasich ...................................................... 40%
Not sure ............................................................ 6%

Q3 This fall, Ohio will have a referendum on
whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which
was passed earlier this year and limits collective
bargaining rights for public employees. If the
election was today, would you vote to approve
or reject Senate Bill 5?
Approve SB5..................................................... 36%
Reject................................................................ 56%
Not sure ............................................................ 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1019513.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 102
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216

[pbrower2a]

Bobby Jindal was just  re-elected in Louisiana.  For good reason his approval rating will stick. Had he been defeated or had he decided not to run for another term, then Louisiana would have gone blank.

Re-election does not start the ratings over for a governor. End of a term without a re-election does, whether the cause is defeat, resignation, death, or removal through impeachment or recall.

[pbrower2a]

http://mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/MTSU_Poll_Fall2011_Report.pdf

Fifty-one percent of Tennesseans approve of the job Bill Haslam is doing as the state’s governor. Although this is
the narrowest of majorities, it dwarfs by more than 3 to 1 the portion of Tennesseans who say that they disapprove
of the job Governor Haslam is doing (16 percent). However, a noteworthy slice of the Tennessee population, 33
percent, has yet to express a decisive opinion about the job Haslam is doing as governor, opting instead to say they
don’t know or would rather not answer the question.

PPP. Hawaii. This is not a misprint. This prose leaves no doubt:

Abercrombie least popular gov. in U.S., HI wants gay marriage
Raleigh, N.C. – Move over, John Kasich. Step aside, Rick Scott. Take a hike, Scott
Walker. There is a new least popular governor in town, and he is a Democrat from one of
the bluest states in the country, Hawaii. Neil Abercrombie’s net approval rating has
plummeted 33 points since PPP last polled the state in March, when he had a decent 48-
41 spread. That is now 30-56, nine points worse than the previous most hated governor
on which PPP has polled this year, Ohio’s Kasich.

Hawaii Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Neil
Abercrombie’s job performance?
Approve................. 30%
Disapprove............ 56%
Not sure ................ 14%

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 212

[Governor Scott]

What the hell could Abercrombie had done to piss people off?

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac and PPP basically concur on Ohio:

Gov. Kasich's standing is in the same negative neighborhood as SB 5, with Ohio voters disapproving of his job performance 52 - 36 percent, down from 49 - 40 percent disapproval in September's survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Union-bashing is a losing proposition for Republicans in this very purple state:

Ohio voters support 57 - 32 percent the repeal of SB 5, the centerpiece of Gov. John Kasich's legislative program, as the margin against the governor's measure has almost doubled in the last month, from 51 - 38 percent for repeal September 27, a 13-point margin, to a 25-point margin in today's Quinnipiac University poll.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1665


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 212

[pbrower2a]

The passionate contempt that Scott Walker got earlier this year has largely abated. Has the governor  learned to say as little as necessary and avoid making controversial statements? Or has he trended 'moderate'?

Wisconsin Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve................. 47%
Disapprove............ 51%
Not sure ................ 2%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_1026424.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 3
Huge 212

[pbrower2a]

Maine, PPP -- It's been a long time (March) since Maine was polled, and Governor LePage remains unpopular.

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve................. 43%
Disapprove............ 48%
Not sure ................ 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_1102424.pdf



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 7
Huge 208

[pbrower2a]

Mississippi Survey Results

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor

Haley Barbour’s job performance?

Approve................. 60%
Disapprove............ 29%
Not sure ................ 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MS_1106925.pdf

No crosstabs were shown on the distribution of approval and disapproval on Governor Barbour  based on race -- but on about everything else, race determines more what side one stands on than does anything else in Mississippi. That includes age, economic status, the rural-urban split, and educational achievement. It also largely defines partisan affiliation.

The Republican (unless Herman Cain) will defeat Barack Obama about 65-35 in Mississippi in 2012. Count on that.  

"K" is for the eleventh month of the year and has no other significance on this map.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 7
Huge 208

[pbrower2a]

A PPP update after a couple weeks in Ohio:

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve................. 33%
Disapprove............ 57%
Not sure ................ 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1106925.pdf

"K" is for the eleventh month of the year and has no other significance on this map.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 7
Huge 208

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie holds onto his high 56 - 38 percent job approval rating despite his failure to make any gains in last week's legislative elections, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Today's results are little changed from Gov. Christie's 58 - 38 percent approval in an October 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Approval is 90 - 8 percent among Republicans and 62 - 31 percent among independent voters. Democrats disapprove 66 - 28 percent. Men approve 60 - 35 percent and women approve 52 - 42 percent.

Voters approve 70 - 18 percent of the way Gov. Christie handled the October snowstorm, with strong support among all groups and in all regions.

"Gov. Christopher Christie got a big bump in his job approval last month after he told New Jersey voters they were stuck with him because he wasn't running for president," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1673




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 7
Huge 208

[pbrower2a]

Scott Walker. Governor of Wisconsin, Republican. Recent efforts to resuscitate approval have apparently failed. He isn't exactly Bob MacDonnell or Christopher Christie.

18% strongly approve
20% approve
21% disapprove
37% strongly disapprove
2%   have not heard of
3%   don't know
0%   refused

http://wpr.org/announce/survey1111/2011f-survey-1.pdf




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 7
Huge 218
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

California Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Jerry Brown’s job performance?

Approve................. 46%
Disapprove............ 38%
Not sure ................ 16%

It hadn't been updated since April.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CA_11181118.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white





  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62


No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 62
Huge 163

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Could John Kasich be the next Robert Taft? Ohio sure knows how to pick them.

A +8 rating for California is pretty good considering the 12% unemployment rate.