Governors' statewide popularity

[pbrower2a]

In recent weeks we have paid much attention to how the President rates on statewide approval polls. Such is obviously relevant to whether he can be re-elected. Here I suggest a different approach: how state governors are doing. I am going to figure that a highly-popular Democratic governor might help President Obama get elected in the state, and that a highly-unpopular Democratic Governor would hurt his effort in that state.   I will use red for a popular Democratic Governor (one with an approval 'surplus') and orange for an unpopular Democratic Governor (with an approval 'deficit').

In contrast, I would expect a highly-popular Republican Governor (blue) to make an Obama victory difficult in his state, and a highly-unpopular  Republican governor (green) to make an Obama victory more likely.

I am going to blank out a state or district with white if it has no governor (DC, obviously) or an independent Governor, and revert a state to gray should the existing governor leave office (death, resignation, new election, or impeachment). Yellow is for a tie in approval or disapproval, whether the Governor is a Democrat or a Republican, Significantly, I am NOT going to rely so much upon  raw approval as I am going to rate governors on deficits or surpluses of approval. Some Governors are better known in some states than are some others. A governor with a 37-31 split between approval and disapproval can be doing very well, but one with a 42-47 isn't doing so well. There will be no averaging, and partisan polls will be rejected.

I have no intention, so far, of showing that a Governor (should the case so be) either faces a criminal investigation or mass protests in opposition to his policies. Such will surely show in the likely deficit of support.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

No governor or an independent governor ... white

The map above shows the month in which a State or district is polled.  Letters represent months from January (A) to December (L). None shall be shown from before February 2011 except if the Governor has been re-elected or continues from an earlier election (people in the state arguably knew what they were doing).

For now I am starting with a blank except with DC and RI blanked out:

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red.  

Now show electoral votes. Most obviously I can start with zero gubernatorial advantage for DC and RI:

No advantage                                                7
 

[pbrower2a]

OK -- four states as illustrations.

All of these states are from PPP. Bev Perdue is in hot water in North Carolina:

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Pennsylvania, where Governor Tom Corbett got off to a poor start:

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Where an incumbent Democrat looks as if he could romp to re-election if he so desires:

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The end date for the poll gives the month, so this one is from April.

Now, with a successful GOP Governor (Bob McDonnell in Virginia):

Virginia Survey Results

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

No governor or an independent governor ... white

The map above shows the month in which a State or district is polled.  Letters represent months from January (A) to December (L). None shall be shown from before February 2011.

For now I am starting with a blank except with DC and RI blanked out:

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow. 

No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                             24
GOP advantage                                                 28         
 

[pbrower2a]

Very interesting. I look forward to seeing updates on the map

Thank you.


The states that I showed are all in apparent contention.  I think that in a state like New Hampshire, the President could make several trips to aid Democratic candidates to challenge some certifiably unpopular Representatives in Congress if the state is even on the fringe of contention. President Obama does extremely well in reaching mass crowds, and New Hampshire has its population concentrated in a relatively small area. In Pennsylvania, an unpopular Governor could be trouble for the Republican nominee who can't afford to be seen with an unpopular Governor. The inverse applies to President Obama in North Carolina even if polls suggest him doing reasonably well there.

The Governor of Virginia seems so far to have avoided the snares that have sprung upon some new governors. He could be a strong asset to the Republican nominee in a close race in that state.

PPP will be polling Iowa, a state that, like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, has a new Republican Governor replacing a Democrat. Will this new governor be as unpopular as Walker, Snyder, Kasich, Corbett, or Scott? The demographics of  Wisconsin are very similar to those of Wisconsin, and you can be sure that the state of Iowa offers little margin of error for a Republican governor.   

I am going to make one modification: I will include polls for continuing or re-elected Governors from January. Arizonans and Texans know their Governors very well.     

[pbrower2a]

Some old but eligible polls from PPP. PPP gave an early poll for Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin, but Rasmussen put out a poll that supplanted that one.  

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

The map above shows the month in which a State or district is polled.  Letters represent months from January (A) to December (L). None shall be shown from before February 2011 (modification -- I will accept January 2011 polls for someone re-elected).
Mississippi: Barbour (R), 58-24, March
Georgia, Deal (R) 35-31, April
Michigan, Snyder (R) 33-50, March
Missouri, Nixon (D) 45-38, March
Ohio, Kasich (R) 35-54, March
Florida, Scott (R), 32-55, March
Maine, LePage (R), 43-48, March
Colorado, Hickenlooper (D), 52-23, February
New Mexico, Martinez (R), 52-35, February
Arizona, Brewer (R) 47-45, January*
Texas, Perry (R) 65-26, January*
Tennessee, Bredeson (D) 63-19, February  

* re-elected.

There was a later poll by Rasmussen for Scott Walker in Wisconsin, so it is pointless to show the PPP poll for it. Rasmussen showed abysmal ratings for Walker.

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         111
GOP advantage                                             103      
 

[pbrower2a]

Oh yes, this is quite interesting.  I imagine a composite of this map and your map of presidential approval ratings by state might make a very accurate prediction, assuming no huge events and no off-the-wall candidates/scenarios.

Thank you.

I'm not completely sure of what I am measuring here. I see some strange results; for example, I see the Democratic Governor of Tennessee and the Republican Governor of New Mexico doing anomalously well. Maybe a 47% approval rating for the President won't mean as much in states very different in how the Parties are seen in a state -- that the same level of approval for the President might be more valuable in Pennsylvania than in Virginia. Likewise, with different levels of identity with the Governor as a partisan politician in the same way, one Republican Governor might find it easier to cast barbs at the President and get away with it than others. Contrast Rick Perry (Texas) to Jan Brewer (Arizona). Both Governors may be pieces of work, but as it is, Rick Perry has more residual credibility in Texas than does Jan Brewer in Arizona.

Any Republican nominee for President will need to win Florida and at least one of a swath of states from the Minneapolis-to-Philadelphia corridor as well as Florida to have a real shot at unseating President Obama. I see none of Walker, Snyder, Kasich, Corbett, and Scott who can be of any help to any Republican candidate. In a close election for President, such could make all the difference in the world. Unless  something changes drastically in North Carolina, Bev Purdue will be no help to President Obama. 

There will be huge events. Someone in high office could have a huge scandal. Congress matters, too. Then the performance and personality of the President come into play.

I don't know what I have here. I may have something far more relevant to the fate of elected Governors or Senators than to the President.  I may have a useful leading indicator of the 2012 election -- or nothing more than statistical noise. And, yes, I am at the mercy of pollsters. I have huge gaps in states of interest -- Indiana, Iowa (until PPP brings out its report),  Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, South Carolina, and both Dakotas. 

[pbrower2a]

Two big polls in the Northeast -- by Quinnipiac.

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http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2011/04/cuomo-better-liked-in-ny-than-christie-in-nj

To be sure, President Obama loses New York only in a huge landslide, and Chris Christie couldn't be strong enough to help a Republican nominee for president win a state tailor-made for President Obama. 

I'm going to take this as an indication of approval even if it is "re-elect/ elect someone else" for Louisiana:

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This is a January poll, but Bobby Jindal continues in office as Governor, which was good enough for me for Governors in Arizona and Texas. 

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/01/nearly_half_favor_gov_bobby_ji.html

 
No way do I see President Obama winning Louisiana unless the opponent is Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         140
GOP advantage                                             125      
 

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee is wrong on the map.

The new governor is Bill Haslam (R) and he has sky-high approvals.

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill Haslam’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 17%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TN_0217.pdf

The correction shall be made.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         129
GOP advantage                                             136      
 

[pbrower2a]

To test the theory, here is a composite map of Obama's approvals and the Governors' approvals.  In instances where a state lacked gubernatorial approvals or the governor was an independent or non-existent, I assumed that they mirror the president's popularity and vice versa, which likely introduced some errors.

  0.0%   to    1%            white
  1.1%   to    5%       ... color 30%
  5.1%   to   10%       ... color 40%
10.1%   to  15%       ... color 50%
15.1% or greater      ... color 60%
Washington D.C           red 90%

Interesting application.

In essence, the Governor is almost invariably the most visible politician in any State --except for the President of the United States. Name recognition is a huge asset if one is John Hickenlooper (so far). If the Governor is very popular, then he is an asset to the Presidential nominee of the same Party. If he is unpopular, then he is an easy target for the President or Presidential nominee from the other Party. Mitt Romney, if the nominee, might be leery of appearing on the same stage with Scott Walker or Rick Scott but have no problem appearing on the same stage with Chris Christie or Bob McDonnell. Everybody loves a winner, and a sure orphan is an orphan. It's hard to undo a first impression, and several new Republican governors have proved decisive -- and very wrong. Any Democrat in Wisconsin is going to be able to use the name "Scott Walker" as a villain to be derided, in contrast to himself.

The coloring for Iowa is a couple days premature; PPP will have a poll on Iowa released sometime this week.

This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

Such may be very much so. It's remarkable that neighboring Arizona and New Mexico appear in the same light-blue shade. Governor Jan Brewer may have gone as far as she can with anti-immigrant demagoguery, and if that backfires it will be a disaster for Republicans in Arizona. Such could be relevant to an open Senate seat as well as to the Presidency. Governor Martinez in New Mexico may prove a moderate voice within the GOP and partially negate the hold of President Obama on the votes of the large Mexican-American minority in New Mexico. 

Some Governors are wise strategists; some are simply survivors who know when to back off; some are catastrophic blunderers. Sometimes the popularity or unpopularity reflects something else that might hurt a President (namely, the economy). There is still plenty of time for scandals and other political disasters -- and for economic improvement or deterioration.   

[pbrower2a]

This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

If President Obama has strong approvals in New Jersey, then any influence of whatever popularity Chris Christie has upon the election is effectively neutralized. Likewise, should the Governor of some state that can't elect any Democrat have a Governor mired in a scandal reminiscent of Mark Sanford taking a hike on the Appalachian Trail and ending up in Argentina, then President Obama still loses the state.

So, we have two rival claims.  Anyone want to test them?  Or know whether they've been tested?

I have simply placed a hypothesis here. It can be tested in 2012. Intuitively I suspect that Chris Christie has no way of preventing a win by President Obama of New Jersey even if the Governor is wildly popular. For all I know, it might have more influence on Senatorial and House races than on the Presidential race. The gubernatorial advantage is probably far less than the Favorite Son effect.  Hardly anything can stop a President who has a 50% approval rating going into the last few weeks of the electoral season.

My map suggests that the GOP is in deep trouble in what have long been considered swing states, most notably Florida and the arc from the Twin Cities to Philadelphia -- but that wins for President Obama in Virginia and North Carolina may have been flukes.

I have little idea of what I have here. Maybe it is too crude to be valuable. We shall see in 2012. It could be easy for a Democratic politician to say "Scott Walker" and conjure the image of some caped villain tying Pauline to a railroad track as a locomotive comes close. (That is a silent film image, but it remains effective).

[pbrower2a]

New one, Quinnipiac, New Jersey.


A new Quinnipiac University poll finds New Jersey voters do not believe Gov. Chris Christie's (R) claim that he could beat President Obama in a 2012 match up and back the president by 52% to 39%.

Obama also tops Christie in job approval with 51% to 45% as compared to the governor's split approval at 47% to 46%.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         129
GOP advantage                                             136      
 

[pbrower2a]

If a state is Democratic, then it is likely that it will have a popular Democratic senator and that a Democratic presidential candidate will do well there. So it can't really be tested. We can observe that it has very small explanatory power just by looking at states like Wyoming or Vermont in recent presidential elections.

Likely -- but far from certain. Maine has two Republican Senators, but it hasn't voted for a Republican nominee for President since 1984.  The "Tea Party Republican" governor has probably lost popularity since March. Except for Colorado, New Hampshire, and New York, all of the states in the two deeper shades of red have very unpopular Republican governors. Anyone who thinks that current governors of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida will be the sorts of people that Presidential candidates will want to be seen with expects miracles on their behalf before 2012. Michigan is decidedly more D than average, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are slightly more D than average, and Ohio and Florida are almost even but slightly more R than average.  Governors in trouble are usually either corrupt, incompetent, or outside the political mainstream in the state. These are the sorts that opposition candidates can run against successfully. A Republican nominee probably doesn't now want an invitation to share a podium with Scott Walker, Rick Scott, Rick Snyder, John Kasich, or Tom Corbett. Such is unlikely to change. But contrast Virginia, where the Republican Governor still has appreciable popularity. Appearing on the podium with him might be good politics. If the President's statewide approval going into the election is like this, with states as they are:

Wisconsin 48
Pennsylvania 48
Missouri 48
Arizona 48
Louisiana 48
Virginia 48

and the perceptions of existing Governors then remains as they are at the most recent poll, then I would expect President Obama to win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, lose Louisiana and Virginia, and have huge question marks on Missouri and Arizona. The Party 'brand' usually revolves around first the President, and then the Governor.

Now that's not to say that a Presidential nominee should rely entirely upon the perceptions of State governors to win any state. But such a perception might shape where the nominee campaigns and where his advertising budget goes.   

Although Senators may have more national recognition, state Governors are the best-known political figures inside their states.  Except for the President they draw more attention from the media within their state than any other political figure within their state. People still read newspapers and watch television, mostly within their own states or just across a state line. 

 

[pbrower2a]

New one, Quinnipiac, New Jersey.


A new Quinnipiac University poll finds New Jersey voters do not believe Gov. Chris Christie's (R) claim that he could beat President Obama in a 2012 match up and back the president by 52% to 39%.

Obama also tops Christie in job approval with 51% to 45% as compared to the governor's split approval at 47% to 46%.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         129
GOP advantage                                             135      
 

It's now time to separate the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 8
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Modest 18
Huge 135
 

[pbrower2a]

Pardon the spacing, but it would seem that about every new Governor seems to be having problems in keeping up popularity. Not Governor Jerry Brown in California.

Jerry Brown is definitely not riding his popularity from about 30 years ago now. He qualifies as a new governor because of a huge gap between being Governor of California around 1980 and now.   

Strng Smwt Smwt Strng DK/ Total Total -
App App Disap Disap Ref App Disap Disap
13 Jerry Brown as governor
Total ..............................................................18 26 15 18 23 44 33 11
White .............................................................18 26 14 20 22 43 35 9
Latino.............................................................21 22 19 13 26 43 31 11

That's a 44-33 gap in  favor of Governor Brown, and it makes sense even from a partisan poll.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         129
GOP advantage                                             135      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 8
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Modest 18
Huge 180
 

[pbrower2a]

 Iowa, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0422.pdf

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor

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First the good news for the new Republican Governor of Iowa: he's not doing anywhere nearly as badly in winning over the electorate as new Governors of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Now the bad news: he's underwater, and it is highly unlikely that he could help any Republican nominee for President in November 2012.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         190
GOP advantage                                             135      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 8
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 18
Huge 180
 

[pbrower2a]

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http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/dems-favored-for-wv-gov.html

For a state bordering on two states with new and unpopular Republican governors (Ohio and Pennsylvania), the new Governor of West Virginia is doing very well.

Oh -- he's a Democrat! Maybe that makes a difference.

President Obama still seems to be the wrong sort of Democrat to win the Presidency with the aid of West Virginia. He lost this state by a huge margin in 2008. With the right Democrat, West Virginia is a legitimate swing state -- in 2016.

The state used to be one of the most reliable states for Democratic nominees for President. Carter won it in 1980 and Dukakis won it in 1988 in blowout wins for Reagan and the elder Bush, respectively. It is not a true Southern state in that race has little influence upon political life. It has two Democratic Senators, Joe Manchin a decisive winner in a year of a Republican tide.   

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             135      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 8
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 14
Huge 180
 

[pbrower2a]

Updated to include the Iowa and West Virginia governor approval ratings and Obama's approval in Nevada.  I think the best way to think of this map is as an overlay of the Presidential Approval Ratings.  Maybe on a whole slightly more accurate but another overlay (IMO one of Generic R's approvals) is needed to filter out the statistical noise.

PPP polled Nevada and West Virginia last weekend and will surely release results of approval of the Governor of Nevada and of President Obama in West Virginia. I don't expect President Obama to crack even 40% approval in West Virginia -- as I say, he is the wrong sort of Democrat for West Virginia, too much the egghead to win the state.

I wouldn't bother with "Mr. Generic Republican", last known as Ronald Reagan. Reagan had no clear association with any region of the US; if there were such a candidate and there were an election today, "Mr. Generic Republican" would win. "Mr. Generic Republican" is even less relevant than at least two histrionic characters who have gone off the deep end, let alone some fantastically-unpopular Republican Governors.   One can't rule out some electoral disasters for the GOP -- yet -- but the appearance of a miracle candidate who can defeat President Obama is unlikely. The two likely candidates doing best are Washington outsiders who have scrupulously committed themselves to bland positions.

[pbrower2a]

Nevada, PPP. Brian Sandoval is doing fine despite being one of the new Republican governors:

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             141      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 14
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 14
Huge 180
 

[pbrower2a]

Missouri, PPP

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0504513.pdf

It looks as if Governor Nixon could help any Democratic candidate in 2012 -- including President Obama and Senator McCaskill.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             141      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 14
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190
 

[pbrower2a]

Arizona update. Very close to a tie, although essentially the same as in January.

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This state may be tiring of Republican pols:

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The limited popularity of the Governor may be less relevant than the fading evaluations of the state's two veteran Senators.  I can now understand why Jon Kyl isn't running for re-election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0505.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             141      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 14
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190

[pbrower2a]

This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

Well, it depends. If West Virginia or Arkansas has a Democratic governor with high approval ratings, it's not going to be of very much help to Obama. However, if a polarizing, ideological figure like Scott Walker has low approval ratings, it's going to help him quite a bit. If Chris Christie has high approvals in NJ, it might help the Republican candidate, though not enough to make a difference.

Also... notice that I have Virginia in deep blue for now, with a Governor who has (so far as the latest poll shows) enough popularity to be of help to a Republican nominee for President. At the least, a Democrat (whether Obama or the Senate candidate) can't simply go on the stump, call out the name "Bob McDonnell" and elicit jeers at an unpopular Governor. Such might be red meat for the Democratic base, but it would be unattractive to independents. A Republican nominee can appear often on the podium soon after the Governor and use his popularity. Contrast Rick Scott in Florida, who can now easily be used as an illustration in Florida of all that is wrong with the GOP.  Unless miracles happen for Governor Rick Scott, any Republican nominee will want to stay clear of him. Florida and Virginia are both legitimate swing states, but with the same sort of approval going into October 2012, President Obama could conceivably win Florida and lose Virginia. If that level of approval is 50% or so. then he wins anyway, but if it is 47% or so, then the desirability of a Governor of the opposite Party may make the difference in the state. 

But even if the difference is of intensity of popularity of a Governor,  then the Presidential race may still hinge upon the effectiveness of the Governor as a politician. This model suggests that a state that was close in 2008 that has a popular Democratic governor (Nixon in Missouri) might offer a good chance for a pick-up in a state generally understood to be (Lean-R). But with Republican Governors with shaky support in states that should reasonably be Lean R (Arizona, Georgia), things might not go as smoothly as they do in Texas for a Republican nominee.   

[pbrower2a]

Belated discovery -- Quinnipiac, Connecticut: Rules are rules, and I'm not going to suppress a discovery.

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Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             148      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190

[pbrower2a]

Zogby update of New Jersey. The President's approval took off, but gubernatorial approval didn't change. Nothing changes except the letter for the month.

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Hughes_Center_Poll_Says_Obama_Still_Strong_in_NJ_2011_0513rev.pdf

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             148      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190

[pbrower2a]

Hawaii checks in:

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http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/14649236/hawaii-poll-half-of-island-voters-approve-of-governor-in-first-six-months-of-term

Hawaii has monotonous weather and monotonous politics.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         204
GOP advantage                                             148      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 194

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.criticalinsights.com/assets/CriticalInsightsTrackingSurveySpring2011.pdf

My comment:

Governor LePage got his chance to impress Maine voters -- and has likely become an unwitting asset to President Obama and poison for Senator Snowe.  This is a huge drop from the results of a PPP poll from March.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         204
GOP advantage                                             148      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 0
Huge 198

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WA_0518424.pdf

She apparently isn't running for re-election; if she did she might put Washington at risk for the President.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         204
GOP advantage                                             160      
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 100
Modest 21
Slight 41


No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 0
Huge 198