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| |-+  2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Tender Branson)
| | |-+  MS: Public Policy Polling: Phil Bryant (R) starts out with a strong lead
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Author Topic: MS: Public Policy Polling: Phil Bryant (R) starts out with a strong lead  (Read 3035 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 31, 2011, 10:00:37 am »

New Poll: Mississippi Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2011-03-27

Summary: D: 27%, R: 53%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2011, 10:03:32 am »

Complete results:

Phil Bryant ...................................................... 53%
Bill Luckett ...................................................... 27%

Phil Bryant ...................................................... 56%
Johnny DuPree ............................................... 25%

...

Dave Dennis ................................................... 43%
Bill Luckett ...................................................... 25%

Dave Dennis ................................................... 41%
Johnny DuPree ............................................... 28%

...

Hudson Holliday.............................................. 38%
Bill Luckett ...................................................... 28%

Hudson Holliday.............................................. 37%
Johnny DuPree ............................................... 28%

...

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Phil Bryant?

Favorable........................................................ 32%
Unfavorable .................................................... 27%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dave Dennis?

Favorable........................................................ 13%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hudson Holliday?

Favorable........................................................ 7%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%

...

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Luckett?

Favorable........................................................ 13%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Johnny DuPree?

Favorable........................................................ 12%
Unfavorable .................................................... 28%

...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0330.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2011, 10:06:03 am »

Well, as expected: Nothing to see here.

Phil Bryant = next governor of Mississippi.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2011, 10:13:26 am »

The only interesting question will be who wins the Democratic primary.

DuPree, who is black - or Luckett, who is white.

They are both not well liked by Democrats so far, even though DuPree is known by more.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2011, 10:39:29 am »
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Why would a black Democrat even want to run for governor in MS?
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« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2011, 03:18:12 pm »
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John Eaves for Governor!
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GM Napoleon
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« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2011, 05:40:48 pm »
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Why would a black Democrat even want to run for governor in MS?

Why would any Democrat? Probably just to get some attention or to represent their party.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2011, 05:45:09 pm »
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Why would a black Democrat even want to run for governor in MS?

Why would any Democrat? Probably just to get some attention or to represent their party.

White Democrats (such as Ronnie Musgrove, Barbour's predecessor) can and do win.  Black Democrats cannot and do not.
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GM Napoleon
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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2011, 05:54:43 pm »
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Why would a black Democrat even want to run for governor in MS?

Why would any Democrat? Probably just to get some attention or to represent their party.

White Democrats (such as Ronnie Musgrove, Barbour's predecessor) can and do win.  Black Democrats cannot and do not.

I thought you were talking about this specific election, where no Democrat would have a chance. You're right about black Democrats not having a chance though. I wonder how even a black Republican would fare.
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When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
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I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
Invisible Obama
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« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2011, 08:02:40 pm »
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Why would a black Democrat even want to run for governor in MS?

It's free country, people can run for whatever they want regardless of race or party. Non-viability certainly doesn't stop Republicans from running in some places where it makes absolutely no sense for them to run.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2011, 08:07:23 pm by Estes Kefauver »Logged
ScottM
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« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2011, 09:27:54 pm »
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No surprise at all in these numbers. It's been assumed pretty much since the last election in 2007 that 2011 would be Bryant's to lose.

And just for the record, it's becoming harder and harder all the time for Democrats to win in Mississippi regardless of race. The state is growing more Republican almost by the day it seems. The last 10 years have seen a lot of people here sour on Democrats at all levels - not just on the federal level.
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IDS Attorney General PiT
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« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2011, 01:48:08 am »
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Why would a black Democrat even want to run for governor in MS?

Why would any Democrat? Probably just to get some attention or to represent their party.

White Democrats (such as Ronnie Musgrove, Barbour's predecessor) can and do win.  Black Democrats cannot and do not.

     Musgrove won narrowly in 1999 & lost re-election by 7% in 2003. As ScottM pointed out, Mississippi has become more Republican since then. White Democrats have won the Governor's mansion in Mississippi in our lifetimes, but they probably can't today, barring extraordinary circumstances.
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ScottM
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« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2011, 09:48:35 am »
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Why would a black Democrat even want to run for governor in MS?

Why would any Democrat? Probably just to get some attention or to represent their party.

White Democrats (such as Ronnie Musgrove, Barbour's predecessor) can and do win.  Black Democrats cannot and do not.

     Musgrove won narrowly in 1999 & lost re-election by 7% in 2003. As ScottM pointed out, Mississippi has become more Republican since then. White Democrats have won the Governor's mansion in Mississippi in our lifetimes, but they probably can't today, barring extraordinary circumstances.

To show just how close the election was the last time a Democrat ran, Musgrove received 49.6% of the vote compared to Mike Parker's 48.5% of the vote. Since Musgrove failed to break the 50% mark, the election went to Mississippi's "electoral vote." To win the electoral vote a candidate would have to win the vote of a majority of Mississippi's 122 House districts. But, the race was tied 61-61 there. So, the Governor was selected by the House, and since the legislature was still dominated by Democrats at that time, Musgrove was of course selected, in a 86-36 vote along party lines.

But, there's one more point to be made about the closeness of the race, Musgrove as Lieutenant governor had relatively high name-recognition across the state, while Parker's name-recognition was more local as he was the Congressman from CD-4. I remember that was a big question in the race: "Can Mike Parker overcome the name-recognition gap?" As the results show, he nearly succeeded.

Edit: One more point I failed to mention. Musgrove was, as mentioned, defeated by Haley Barbour in his re-election bid. Mississippi is not a state with a history of throwing out incumbents (one reason our 2010 Congressional results surprised some). And yet, Barbour defeated Musgrove by a not-insignificant 7%. That demonstrates the shift that was happening pretty well.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2011, 09:51:48 am by ScottM »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2011, 12:57:06 am »

Bryant is also way ahead in the primary:

The Republican candidates for Governor are James Broadwater, Phil Bryant, Dave Dennis, Hudson Holliday, and Ron Williams. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Phil Bryant ...................................................... 63%
Dave Dennis ................................................... 14%
Hudson Holliday.............................................. 2%
James Broadwater.......................................... 1%
Ron Williams................................................... 0%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 20%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0407915.pdf
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« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2011, 05:09:49 pm »
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It's 2011, and a plurality of Mississippians still oppose interracial marriage?!

Quote
Q14 Do you think interracial marriage should be
legal or illegal?

Legal      40%
...............................................................
 
Illegal      46%
..............................................................

Not sure    14%
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« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2011, 11:17:08 am »
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It's 2011, and a plurality of Mississippians still oppose interracial marriage?!

Quote
Q14 Do you think interracial marriage should be
legal or illegal?

Legal      40%
...............................................................
 
Illegal      46%
..............................................................

Not sure    14%

Republicans only.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #16 on: April 12, 2011, 07:30:01 pm »
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It's 2011, and a plurality of Mississippians still oppose interracial marriage?!

Quote
Q14 Do you think interracial marriage should be
legal or illegal?

Legal      40%
...............................................................
 
Illegal      46%
..............................................................

Not sure    14%

Republicans only.

They only asked Republicans, which was a dick move.  The Memphis ABC affiliate went out on the street and the first guy they found was a Democrat who opposed interracial marriage.  The crosstabs are interesting though.... didn't realize that Michelle Bachmann supporters were more tolerant than Mitt Romney supporters:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0407915.pdf
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2011, 08:04:57 pm »
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They also asked about the Attorney General race, and the incumbent, Democrat Jim Hood, is ahead 49-32. That's a little surprising.
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