Will Republicans in New York lose their State Senate majority

[Napoleon]

By all held, I just mean they keep 32 in total.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's inevitable, just like it was inevitable that the Alabama Democrats lose their majority.

[edtorres04]

I disagree.  It depends on how the lines are drawn.  The republicans never would have lost their majority in the first place if they didn't do a dummy mander last time.  They spread themselves too thin and decided to keep both a republican leaning bronx district and a republican leaning lower westchester disctrict, both of which they lost. 

[Bacon King]

They may keep their current numbers for a while, but I doubt any map would keep them from losing the chamber at some point over the next decade.

[cinyc]

Depends on whether the Republican party can both draw a better map and continue the rebuilding process in the NYC suburbs.  As of right now, my guess is they will lose their majority at some point this decade as the old guard dies or gets indicted.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Looks pretty inevitable to me. There's a bunch of seats they hold where falling is a matter of time. Hell just look at that seat in Buffalo for one, that one is as doomed as Cao was.

[Verily]

Probably. They have no obvious Democratic-held targets after 2010, and they're going to lose that seat in Buffalo BRTD mentioned. There may be a serious push for minority representation on Long Island that would screw the Republicans by creating a permanently Democratic seat there (rather than the current map that splits the minority areas across multiple districts to keep their influence down). But it's really hard to say for certain.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It's really analogous to the Democratic legislatures in the Deep South, except that NY is proceeding more slowly due to lack of party-switching. All it depends on how long the old incumbents can hang on. I expect it will be Democratic by 2016 or so.

[Napoleon]

They could convince Carlucci to join them possibly. They really needed to do better in Westchester last year. Grisanti is almost certain to lose. I'm not even if sure if they'll have a majority of Long Island seats by the end of this cycle.

[edtorres04]

Grisanti's new district will gain white working class voters and drop black voters.  He will have a chance.

[Napoleon]

Grisanti's new district will gain white working class voters and drop black voters.  He will have a chance.

Even without Paladino? I'm not convinced. Wasn't Grisanti a liberal Democrat who ran as a Republican instead of in the Democratic party?

[Smash255]

Grisanti's new district will gain white working class voters and drop black voters.  He will have a chance.

Even without Paladino? I'm not convinced. Wasn't Grisanti a liberal Democrat who ran as a Republican instead of in the Democratic party?

Not sure how liberal he was or if he is a liberal, but yes Grisanti is a registered Democrat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There are a lot more problems that the Republicans face than shifting the black voters out of Grisanti's district. They're already maxed out in western New York: they hold two districts that, by all rights, they shouldn't (Grisanti and that guy in inner Rochester). Kennedy's district absorbs the black voters, but his district is already Dem-leaning, so where do his extra voters go? Not to mention the population change is going to necessitate the axing of at least one or two Senate districts upstate. Kennedy, David Valesky, and whoever represents Albany are about all of the Democrats left upstate, so how are the Republicans going to avoid having the loss of seats come out of their hide?

[Napoleon]

The only way would be to build up in Westchester but Oppenheimer isn't going anywhere and that county has shifted so much to the Democrats that its probably impossible. They could try dicing up Albany but that would likely just cause a dummymander situation. Grisanti could side with the Democrats on redistricting, unless he feels loyalty to the Republicans. The four IDs also hurt the Democrats in the Senate now, but no way that'll last.

[Mr.Phips]

Yes.  Republicans won every possible seat that they could and will likely lose Grisanti's seat and probably the seventh district on Long Island where Craig Thompson will probably run again. 

[BigSkyBob]

There are a lot more problems that the Republicans face than shifting the black voters out of Grisanti's district. They're already maxed out in western New York: they hold two districts that, by all rights, they shouldn't (Grisanti and that guy in inner Rochester). Kennedy's district absorbs the black voters, but his district is already Dem-leaning, so where do his extra voters go? Not to mention the population change is going to necessitate the axing of at least one or two Senate districts upstate. Kennedy, David Valesky, and whoever represents Albany are about all of the Democrats left upstate, so how are the Republicans going to avoid having the loss of seats come out of their hide?

What is the basis of this factoid?


That was the estimate based on the projections before 2010. The actual census numbers for NYC were anemic. The Westchester-Bronx district already held by a Democrat might shift into the Bronx.

[Napoleon]

I don't think they can use prison populations to manipulate voting population anymore.

[Smash255]

Yes.  Republicans won every possible seat that they could and will likely lose Grisanti's seat and probably the seventh district on Long Island where Craig Thompson will probably run again. 

Its Craig Johnson not Thompson in the 7th.

[Verily]

There are a lot more problems that the Republicans face than shifting the black voters out of Grisanti's district. They're already maxed out in western New York: they hold two districts that, by all rights, they shouldn't (Grisanti and that guy in inner Rochester). Kennedy's district absorbs the black voters, but his district is already Dem-leaning, so where do his extra voters go? Not to mention the population change is going to necessitate the axing of at least one or two Senate districts upstate. Kennedy, David Valesky, and whoever represents Albany are about all of the Democrats left upstate, so how are the Republicans going to avoid having the loss of seats come out of their hide?

What is the basis of this factoid?


That was the estimate based on the projections before 2010. The actual census numbers for NYC were anemic. The Westchester-Bronx district already held by a Democrat might shift into the Bronx.

Upstate continued to hemorrhage population while NYC grew. Also, prisoners now count in their home districts, which is a shift of around a third of a Senate district in population from upstate to NYC all by itself.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

These are old census numbers, but still relevant:



The Republicans are trying to block the prison reapportionment bill.

[BigSkyBob]

There are a lot more problems that the Republicans face than shifting the black voters out of Grisanti's district. They're already maxed out in western New York: they hold two districts that, by all rights, they shouldn't (Grisanti and that guy in inner Rochester). Kennedy's district absorbs the black voters, but his district is already Dem-leaning, so where do his extra voters go? Not to mention the population change is going to necessitate the axing of at least one or two Senate districts upstate. Kennedy, David Valesky, and whoever represents Albany are about all of the Democrats left upstate, so how are the Republicans going to avoid having the loss of seats come out of their hide?

What is the basis of this factoid?


That was the estimate based on the projections before 2010. The actual census numbers for NYC were anemic. The Westchester-Bronx district already held by a Democrat might shift into the Bronx.

Upstate continued to hemorrhage population while NYC grew.

Again, what is the basis of this factoid?  NYC's share the population of New York did  not grow in the census to any appreciable extent.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, what is the basis of this factoid? The census counts people where they "sleep most often." Prisoners sleep in their cells every night, so that is where the census counts them. Where, when and how did this alleged adjustment occur?

[BigSkyBob]

These are old census numbers, but still relevant:

I read this nonsense earlier. It is based on 2008 population estimates that indicated that NYC was growing appreciably faster that the state as a whole. When the actual 2010 numbers came in, NYC grew at the same rate as the state as a whole. These numbers are bogus!


And, again, what is the basis of this factoid that the census numbers have been adjusted by moving prisoners from where "they sleep most often," aka "prison," to their legal residences?

[Napoleon]

Its pretty blatant that doing so violates the spirit of one man one vote.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The state passed a law that mandated counting prisoners' legal residences for the purposes of redistricting. It's not that hard to understand.

[cinyc]

The only way would be to build up in Westchester but Oppenheimer isn't going anywhere and that county has shifted so much to the Democrats that its probably impossible. They could try dicing up Albany but that would likely just cause a dummymander situation. Grisanti could side with the Democrats on redistricting, unless he feels loyalty to the Republicans. The four IDs also hurt the Democrats in the Senate now, but no way that'll last.

Oppenheimer almost lost her last election and is in her 70s.  She could be out of office soon, by the ballot box or retirement.

It is possible to create a more Republican-friendly State Senate district in central/southern Westchester if Republicans dared to.  It would have to take up Eastchester, Mount Pleasant and perhaps part Harrison while minimizing territory in more Democratic-leaning areas like Scarsdale, Greenburgh and White Plains on the way to consolidating those two or three towns in one district.  In the 2000 redistricting, Republicans put Eastchester and Mount Pleasant in two districts to keep two Republican incumbents in power.  Both seats are currently represented by Democrats, so that's no longer necessary.