IA/PPP: If Huckabee runs then he wins, else Romney wins.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_04191118.pdf

With Huckabee, Palin, and Trump:

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 27%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 16%
Donald Trump ................................................. 14%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 9%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 8%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 6%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 6%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 5%

With Huckabee and Palin, without Trump:

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 30%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 18%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 12%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 12%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 7%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 6%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 6%

With Palin, without Huckabee or Trump:

Mitt Romney.................................................... 25%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 15%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 15%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 15%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 10%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 9%

With Huckabee, without Palin or Trump:

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 33%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 20%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 13%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 10%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 9%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 5%

Without Huckabee, Palin, or Trump:

Mitt Romney.................................................... 28%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 19%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 16%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 15%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 9%

[Bull Moose Base]

What- no Trump without Huckabee, Palin?  Much as this is entirely a measure of recognition (Trump, Huckabee, Palin take from Ron Paul?) and that is highly likely to change 6-8 months from now, I do have a hard time believing Romney won't go full throttle for Iowa when push comes to shove.  Though I think they'll downplay it to keep expectations low.  Interesting that no Republican except for incumbent has swept IA and NH and in this, the most ostensibly open GOP nomination fight ever, it's looking very doable for the guy whose healthcare plan ObamaCare was modeled on.  The savage attack ads are going to be beautiful.  Also, I'd argue this validates my theory that Barbour (who I'm more skeptical every day will run) should attempt a Giulianiesque all-in bet on South Carolina: campaign only there for the next 9 months and make a big deal out of it.

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting that no Republican except for incumbent has swept IA and NH and in this, the most ostensibly open GOP nomination fight ever, it's looking very doable for the guy whose healthcare plan ObamaCare was modeled on.

Of course, it also looked very doable in October 2007, when he was leading by double digits in both states.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Interesting that no Republican except for incumbent has swept IA and NH and in this, the most ostensibly open GOP nomination fight ever, it's looking very doable for the guy whose healthcare plan ObamaCare was modeled on.

Of course, it also looked very doable in October 2007, when he was leading by double digits in both states.

It ought to be called "Romney syndrome". A candidate starts very strong, but his support slowly dwindles away as time passes and more proactive candidates start getting to work. I really don't see Romney doing so well.

Also, I think Paul sucks up so much otherwise Huckabee vote because he is probably one of the most pro-life candidates running, which is relatively important in Iowa, but he isn't quite as strong there as Huckabee. He also has the advantage of being for home schooling. Iowa is probably one of Paul's stronger states, all things considered.

Also, Palin's support is dwindling away, and it seems to be migrating to Bachmann (meanwhile, T-Paw has okay support around here). If Huckabee doesn't run, this should be an interesting campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

favorability / unfavorability among GOP primary voters:

Mike Huckabee 68%/19% for +49%.
Ron Paul 55%/17% for +38%.
Michele Bachmann 49%/13% for +36%.
Tim Pawlenty 41%/9% for +32%.
Mitt Romney 55%/25% for +30%.
Sarah Palin 58%/29% for +29%.
Rudy Giuliani 48%/25% for +23%.
Newt Gingrich 47%/26% for +21%.
Rick Santorum 27%/11% for +16%.
Haley Barbour 21%/14% for +7%.
Herman Cain 15%/9% for +6%.
Mitch Daniels 13%/7% for +6%
Donald Trump 41%/40% for +1%.
Jon Huntsman 5%/8% for -3%.
Gary Johnson 2%/8% for -6%.
Buddy Roemer 2%/10% for -8%.

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?
yes 26%
no 48%
not sure 26%

Would you be willing to vote for someone who supported a bill at the state level mandating that voters have health insurance?

would be willing to 11%
wouldn't be willing to 63%
not sure 26%

Among those who say Obama was born in the USA:

Romney 28%
Huckabee 17%
Trump 12%

Among those who say he wasn't:

Huckabee 25%
Trump 19%
Romney 13%

Among those who say they would not be willing to vote for someone who supported health insurance mandates:

Huckabee 23%
Trump 19%
Romney 13%

Romney's at 27% among those who say they *would* back someone who supported health insurance mandates, and 20% among those who are not sure.  So, doing the math, roughly half of Romney's support comes from people who say they would not be willing to vote for someone who supported state-level health insurance mandates.  I presume those people are simply unaware of Romneycare.

[King]

All these scenarios and they forgot the most likely one: With Trump, Without Huckabee or Palin.