NY-15 and NY-16
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  NY-15 and NY-16
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Author Topic: NY-15 and NY-16  (Read 805 times)
nclib
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« on: August 20, 2011, 05:52:48 PM »

In each Pres. election this decade (2000, 2004, 2008), NY-15 and NY-16 have been the top two most Democratic districts.

Here is their results going back from 2008:

NY 15 Rangel (D) 93-6 90-9 87-7
NY 16 Serrano (D) 95-5 89-10 92-5

In 2000 and 2008, NY-16 was the most Dem, but in 2004, it was NY-15. Is this just a fluke, or is there a reason for that? In addition to being overwhelmingly Democratic, both are very urban and minority dominated, but NY-15 has a black majority and NY-16 a Puerto Rican majority, which makes it more interesting that NY-16 swung stronger to Obama.

Statistical anomaly, or is anything else happening here?
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2011, 11:22:11 AM »

given how democratic these districts are, it is just that they are maxed out.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2011, 11:58:45 AM »

Mostly just statistical anomaly. However, NY-15 does have a much larger non-Hispanic white population than NY-16 and has much more wealth. It may have a small rump wealthy Republican vote that simply does not exist in NY-16 (i.e., there are a lot more rich, white voters in NY-15--who still split 75-25 Democratic, but are less extremely Democratic than the rest of the two districts.) But that seems to be reading too much into small differences.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2011, 05:41:26 PM »

NY-16 had a larger 9/11 effect for whatever reason. The 9/11 effect was pretty stupid, anyways. Bush ignored warnings of 9/11, and still got a boost from it over 3 years later. Meanwhile, Obama got Bin Laden less than 4 months ago and no one cares any more.
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