Why is Obama sinking like a rock?

[zorkpolitics]

Obama has a negative approval in 7 of the last 7 national approval polls, which average to a net -3.7% approval.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Only a month ago he was up by 3%. 
Did Paul Ryan best him in the deficit debate? 
Are rising gas prices souring folks? 
Or was his unnecessary attack on Libya enough to cause poorly informed, low knowledge, so called swing voters to dump him?

Whatever, it does open the door for a Republican candidate (assuming there is one) to defeat Obama.

My recipe for the GOP to overcome Obama's 7% margin in 2008:
The GOP gets more of the base to vote out of disgust with Obama and the vast increase in the debt, reducing the difference by 1%.
Obama loses 1% of his margin as the "youth vote" doesn't vote as much, since they don't see much real change (Gitmo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, unemployment, debt., all as bad or worse).
A modest 3% of voters, known as swing voters switch from Obama to the GOP, for a net 6% shift.

So there you have it, Obama goes from  +7 to -1 and the GOP wins.  Just wish I had some clue who the GOP candidate would be...

What is your scenario for the GOP to reverse Obama's 7% margin in 2008?

[Yelnoc]

You have to remember, most of the "youth vote" has shifted up a demographic over the past four years.  The question is whether the next crop of you will be as motivated by "Hope 'n Change" as the last.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The budget is a biggie. Inflation is beginning to kick in, too.

[Joe Biden 2020]

He has had a very, very tough year.  With the poor handling of the Gulf Oil Spill last year, then with the perceived lack of leadership on tough issues, the Democratic controlled Congress kicking the 2011 budget can down the road to a near shutdown 2 weeks ago.  The continued unpopularity of the health care bill.  The birther issue (which even though is a waste of time, he has still had to fight that off).  The good Republican year in 2010.  Egypt and Libya in 2011 as well as the budget fight.  All of that has contributed to a bad 12-18 months for the President.  At this point in time, he might be needing to get his home ready in Chicago, again.  He may be sleeping there permanently in about 21 months from now.

[courts]

Because americans didn't want Romney to be President.

[GLPman]

I think we're going to see Obama's approval numbers return to those we saw in summer 2010. His re-election at this point hinges largely upon the economy and the price of oil. I wouldn't be surprised if his approval rating stays below 50% for a while.

[Reaganfan]

It reminds me of how Bush's approval rating in 2005 was in the low to mid 40s, but his statewide support was still high. Of course, the numbers caught up eventually.

Obama may have high statewide approvals, but similar to Carter and GWB, eventually his overall approval rating will catch up.

[NHI]

It reminds me of how Bush's approval rating in 2005 was in the low to mid 40s, but his statewide support was still high. Of course, the numbers caught up eventually.

Obama may have high statewide approvals, but similar to Carter and GWB, eventually his overall approval rating will catch up.

I agree completely.

[Inmate Trump]

Obama's approvals aren't great, and they're going to get worse.  He's proven he's no leader on any front, domestic or international.  Still, he's going to win reelection because there is no Republican out there at this time who the American people connect with.  That, as well as the fact that Obama is a master campaigner and will outspend any Republican candidate by miles (add the possibility of a Tea Party style independent candidate and/or Trump running as an indie--either possibility thus crippling the Republican vote), means that Obama is going to be president until January 2017.  Republicans are in no position to take back the White House in 2012.  For all *many* his faults, Obama will remain president.

[Brittain33]

The best explanation I've seen for the last few weeks is the big jump in gas prices.

[Inmate Trump]

His unclear reasoning behind attacking Libya.  His inability to oversee that conflict, as well as those in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Gas prices through the roof and rising with no apparent end in sight.  BP oil spill=Obama's Katrina; Obama showed us the complete lack and failure of his leadership in that crisis.  Obamacare a total mess.  Obama is good on the campaign front and he's very good at swaying people his way when he's in that arena (that's why he won in '08 and why he'll win in '12) but he has very little ability to actually govern and lead a nation as is evidenced by nearly every single action he's taken as our leader.  In fact, can anyone name even one thing he has done since taking office that has exemplified true leadership?

[tmthforu94]

Gas prices are a biggie. If he can get gas below $2.00, I've already pledged to vote for him. Though I doubt that happens.

Obama's very lucky the GOP field isn't too strong. The only great candidate in this field is certainly Mitt Romney, but he'll have a tough time with the Tea Party.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Obama hasn't proven himself very capable lately (if ever, frankly) at staking out a single position and staying there. Americans can love or hate wherever he does decide to draw a line in the sand, but the only thing the public dislikes more than lefty positions is someone who doesn't seem to vocally take any position.

It's increasingly difficult, lately more than ever, to discern where exactly Obama has been lately on the Libya issue, the budget, and more. Though the recent speech helped on the latter, I suppose, even if it was too little too late.

The Republicans and tea party types have proven very explicitly that it doesn't matter if your position is completely nuts, as long as you take one you can get alot of people on your side. Obama needs to realize that constant middle-of-the-road-ism doesn't win votes at the moment, principled, if even kind of stupid, position taking, is the best.

[memphis]

Obama's favorables have dropped a bit (certainly not like a rock) in recent weeks, but the GOP hasn't been able to capitalize off of it. They still lose to him with every candidate in almost every poll.

[t_host1]

He has had a very, very tough year.  With the poor handling of the Gulf Oil Spill last year, then with the perceived lack of leadership on tough issues, the Democratic controlled Congress kicking the 2011 budget can down the road to a near shutdown 2 weeks ago.  The continued unpopularity of the health care bill.  The birther issue (which even though is a waste of time, he has still had to fight that off).  The good Republican year in 2010.  Egypt and Libya in 2011 as well as the budget fight.  All of that has contributed to a bad 12-18 months for the President.  At this point in time, he might be needing to get his home ready in Chicago, again.  He may be sleeping there permanently in about 21 months from now.

What!!

Have you caught any of his town hall conversations from yesterday? His words, "we must live within our means" and "not spend anymore than what we bring in" the youngsters looked confused.

[feeblepizza]

Any number of reasons:

-There are two unpopular wars going on (three if you count Libya; it's not unpopular yet, but it will be)
-Unemployment is still far above 8%
-The budget is a monster
-ObamaCare
-Rising gas prices
-Talk of tax increases once the Bush tax cuts extension runs out in 2012

So it's pretty safe to say that he's sinking like a rock because of a) bad policies and b) his incompetence as a leader.

[feeblepizza]

Oh, and I almost forgot his terrible handling of the Gulf Oil Spill. That's going to turn voters in FL away from him next year.

[krazen1211]

Lack of economic growth and skyrocketing poverty under Obama does him in.

[billbillerson]

Gas Prices I think play a huge part in it. Fair or not-- most people have not noticed the economy getting any better. If a person does now have a job it's a sh**tty job and they still don't have health insurance or any savings left. With gas getting to where it was in the summer of 08 again, people are screaming double dip.

[Brittain33]

Oh, and I almost forgot his terrible handling of the Gulf Oil Spill. That's going to turn voters in FL away from him next year.

Whether true or not (and I don't think so), it doesn't really explain the last two weeks.

[Joe Biden 2020]

He has had a very, very tough year.  With the poor handling of the Gulf Oil Spill last year, then with the perceived lack of leadership on tough issues, the Democratic controlled Congress kicking the 2011 budget can down the road to a near shutdown 2 weeks ago.  The continued unpopularity of the health care bill.  The birther issue (which even though is a waste of time, he has still had to fight that off).  The good Republican year in 2010.  Egypt and Libya in 2011 as well as the budget fight.  All of that has contributed to a bad 12-18 months for the President.  At this point in time, he might be needing to get his home ready in Chicago, again.  He may be sleeping there permanently in about 21 months from now.

What!!

Have you caught any of his town hall conversations from yesterday? His words, "we must live within our means" and "not spend anymore than what we bring in" the youngsters looked confused.

I was being kind and giving the benefit of the doubt to the current President.

[Franzl]

The best explanation I've seen for the last few weeks is the big jump in gas prices.

I always find this "debate" particularly amusing.

[DrScholl]

It's just normal movement in poll numbers, no President is going to have strong approval all the time. The numbers that are most important are the election matchup ones, where he still wins very clearly.

[J. J.]

I'm not convinced that he is "sinking like a rock."  His core support numbers have eroded, but the rest are not at the extremes of past numbers.

It might be more that Obama has found it is impractical or impossible to do what he's promised, and he's lost support for it.  In other words, the hope was hype.

[specific_name]

His recent weakness is probably due to higher gas prices plus the near shutdown and Obama's new found love of right wing rhetoric. He's eroding support from his own base, since he's talking like Paul Ryan. I appreciate that he's walking a very thin line and liable to please no one.