Why is Obama sinking like a rock?

[Likely Voter]

gas prices is likely main reason

most of the other stuff talked about here is inside beltway stuff.

[feeblepizza]

The best explanation I've seen for the last few weeks is the big jump in gas prices.

I always find this "debate" particularly amusing.

What? That people always blame those in power for higher gas prices? It happened with Bush. And every other President before him who experienced a bad economy.

[zorkpolitics]

Still sinking...
Obama has a negative approval in 7 of the last 7 national approval polls, which average to a net -4.7% approval, 1% lower than yesterday.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Although he has now dropped almost 8 percentage points in a month, but I suspect his bottom of support will be around 40%, given his base of support in minority communities and leftist enclaves.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm not convinced that he is "sinking like a rock."  His core support numbers have eroded, but the rest are not at the extremes of past numbers.

It might be more that Obama has found it is impractical or impossible to do what he's promised, and he's lost support for it.  In other words, the hope was hype.

I think you've probably hit the nail on the head.

Obama's approval numbers reflect what we already know - there is a big chunk - 40-44% who will never vote for him.

But his real losses, approval-wise have been from minorities and liberals, who are disappointed - but it's not like the GOP will nominate someone who will win those people over - more likely they'll nominate someone who will send those people running back to Obama.

[phk]

The opposition to Obama is hardening their once dormant preferences.

[Reaganfan]

Young people, and minorities will not be anywhere near the numbers they were in 2008. If anything, conservatives will be the more motivated to vote next year, and Obama's poor numbers among whites are only likely to be stronger than in 2008.

My guess is a very close result, either a narrow Republican victory or a narrow Obama re-election. Something like this give or take a state or two:

[t_host1]

I'm not convinced that he is "sinking like a rock."  His core support numbers have eroded, but the rest are not at the extremes of past numbers.

It might be more that Obama has found it is impractical or impossible to do what he's promised, and he's lost support for it.  In other words, the hope was hype.

I think you've probably hit the nail on the head.

Obama's approval numbers reflect what we already know - there is a big chunk - 40-44% who will never vote for him.

But his real losses, approval-wise have been from minorities and liberals, who are disappointed - but it's not like the GOP will nominate someone who will win those people over - more likely they'll nominate someone who will send those people running back to Obama.

...who will tell everyone that they are the ones responsible for their actions, needs and wants and, that this GOP President will protect the ability for all to do so, if they choose to.

Of coarse that will be viewed as just another SOB who must be a racist, for sure. Now, if it’s a GOP girl, she’s definitely defiantly an idiot.  defiantly - being a GOP gal with testicle's, which most seem to be in possession of -

[Dan the Roman]

Everyone seems to be dropping. Notice that Rasmussen has his worst numbers for the GOP in his generic ballot poll in over a year, and the GOP seems to be cratering at the state level.

Things are out of control, the Republicans have proposed extremely unpopular solutions, and Obama has proposed no solutions. Obama is tanking because he has shown no leadership, and when the entire world(Libya, Gas) is going out of control thats bad for the incumbent.

[memphis]

Young people, and minorities will not be anywhere near the numbers they were in 2008. If anything, conservatives will be the more motivated to vote next year, and Obama's poor numbers among whites are only likely to be stronger than in 2008.

My guess is a very close result, either a narrow Republican victory or a narrow Obama re-election. Something like this give or take a state or two:

Pennsylvania more GOP than North Carolina is insane. NC was the closest Obama state in 2008 and only swung his way because Barr played spoiler.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Everyone seems to be dropping. Notice that Rasmussen has his worst numbers for the GOP in his generic ballot poll in over a year, and the GOP seems to be cratering at the state level.

Things are out of control, the Republicans have proposed extremely unpopular solutions, and Obama has proposed no solutions. Obama is tanking because he has shown no leadership, and when the entire world(Libya, Gas) is going out of control thats bad for the incumbent.

Yeah, the public seems to be in a foul mood, and that's not exactly an exclusive American phenomenon. Just look how unpopular are Sarkozy, Merkel, Cameron, Berlusconi, Zapatero, etc.
The entire world seems to be in turmoil. 

[Dan the Roman]

Everyone seems to be dropping. Notice that Rasmussen has his worst numbers for the GOP in his generic ballot poll in over a year, and the GOP seems to be cratering at the state level.

Things are out of control, the Republicans have proposed extremely unpopular solutions, and Obama has proposed no solutions. Obama is tanking because he has shown no leadership, and when the entire world(Libya, Gas) is going out of control thats bad for the incumbent.

People are simultaneously reading too much and too little into it. Too much because they are inferring all kinds of things about the long-term trends of US partisan politics. Too little, because something is happening around the world, and it is affecting every incumbent government whether left or right. Heck, change even looks like its coming to Quebec where the Bloc may finally collapse.

Yeah, the public seems to be in a foul mood, and that's not exactly an exclusive American phenomenon. Just look how unpopular are Sarkozy, Merkel, Cameron, Berlusconi, Zapatero, etc.
The entire world seems to be in turmoil. 

[NHI]

A possible Republican victory.

[Penelope]

Nestled underneath GOP wank scenarios is probably the real reason:

It's because gas prices are high.

[J. J.]

The opposition to Obama is hardening their once dormant preferences.

I don't agree on that point; his strongly disapprove numbers on Rasmussen are not at their highs.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

When staunch Dems, like many on this site, vote "strongly dissaprove" in our lil informal polls here, is it any wonder that so many others feel the same way?

[°Leprechaun]

In a close election, if Obama wins every red state on this map he wins 266 e votes.
Obviously we can see that the three yellow states will be critical.

[Cincinnatus]

Nestled underneath GOP wank scenarios is probably the real reason:

It's because gas prices are high.

I'm sure that's a critical part of it.  Interesting to see what the polls say in the summer if gas hits $5/gallon.  Well, interesting data results, not so interesting prices at the pump

[J. J.]

Obama's approval numbers reflect what we already know - there is a big chunk - 40-44% who will never vote for him.

But his real losses, approval-wise have been from minorities and liberals, who are disappointed - but it's not like the GOP will nominate someone who will win those people over - more likely they'll nominate someone who will send those people running back to Obama.

First, I don't that viscerally opposed chunk isn't quite that big.

Second, I think there is another factor, minorities and liberals could just decide to stay home.  1980 and 1992 were good examples.

1976:  Republican share of the popular vote:  48.02%
1980:  Republican share of the popular vote:  50.75%
Difference:  2.73%  Swing:  +1.365

1988:  Democratic share of the popular vote:  45.65%
1992:  Democratic share of the popular vote:  43.01%
Difference:  -2.64  Swing: -1.320

Now, there were 3rd party candidates in each, but it was more of the electorate saying, "We're not voting for the guy we elected the last time."  Had there not been a third party candidate, many might not have showed up.

[J. J.]

In a close election, if Obama wins every red state on this map he wins 266 e votes.
Obviously we can see that the three yellow states will be critical.

I thing I would make IA and VA yellow.

[tpfkaw]

In a close election, if Obama wins every red state on this map he wins 266 e votes.
Obviously we can see that the three yellow states will be critical.

I thing I would make IA and VA yellow.

What he's saying is that Dems can win everything in red and the Republicans still win if they win all 3 yellow states.

[Mechaman]

Young people, and minorities will not be anywhere near the numbers they were in 2008. If anything, conservatives will be the more motivated to vote next year, and Obama's poor numbers among whites are only likely to be stronger than in 2008.

My guess is a very close result, either a narrow Republican victory or a narrow Obama re-election. Something like this give or take a state or two:

Pennsylvania more GOP than North Carolina is insane. NC was the closest Obama state in 2008 and only swung his way because Barr played spoiler.

Agreed.
I mean I was skeptical of Virginia staying Democratic while Pennsylvania doesn't a little off the grid, but North Carolina staying Democratic (while Pennsylvania and Virginia flip)?  No way.  If there are two states that would likely go back to the Republicans it's Indiana and North Carolina.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

I dont think NJ is a lock for Obama either though his numbers are slightly above thew national average. I'd say its a lean at this point.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gas prices are a biggie. If he can get gas below $2.00, I've already pledged to vote for him. Though I doubt that happens.

Obama's very lucky the GOP field isn't too strong. The only great candidate in this field is certainly Mitt Romney, but he'll have a tough time with the Tea Party.

Maybe Obama should take his $1 billion that he will get from his fellow fat cats and use it to give away free gas nationwide the day before election day.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I dont think NJ is a lock for Obama either though his numbers are slightly above thew national average. I'd say its a lean at this point.

Romney might have a slim chance in the state, but it's safe against anyone else.

[opebo]

It is because of Trump.